Jim Sinclair
My Dear Extended Family,
Before hitting Mr. Bron over the head with logic, let's look at the Kitco article titled "Don't believe the hype, COMEX warehouses well stocked". First it is worth noting Kitco's article cites only two sources, Barclays and CPM group. If you recall back in 2010 during the CFTC hearing, Jeffrey Christian of CPM accidentally spilled the beans when he said what they called the "physical market" was actually more than 100-1 paper to actual gold. Barclays and CPM are perennially long term bullish and short term neutral/bearish, for that matter, most articles I read out of Kitco are similar. It is as if they try to temper immediate demand for product, Jon Nadler of Kitco was living proof of that. Why does Kitco continually put out "opinion" pieces negative to their own product? Are they afraid of a stampede? The obvious question in my own mind is how would their pooled accounts fare under such circumstance?
Getting to the heart of their article, registered stocks of COMEX gold are now barely over 5 tons and JP Morgan's position is about 1/3rd of one ton. I can remember when 30 tons or much more was normal for the registered category and I seem to remember just a couple of months back JP Morgan claimed nearly 20 tons registered. So no matter what spin Kitco puts on this, the current registered warehouse stocks are ridiculously low. To put these tiny hoards into perspective, 5 tons of gold is the laughable number of $176 million, JP Morgan's position is no bigger than a single large retail client at about $10 million!
Switching over to Bron Suchecki of The Perth Mint of Australia, first I want to say "thank you" for thinking "Bill Holter" is important enough to refute. He wrote "Bill Holter may not think that you should be shocked about 25% premiums in silver and that "whatever you must pay to get it into your hands" is fine. Personally I can't see the sense of paying 25% when for a few percent you can buy physically backed pool accounts." First it should be said Mr. Suchecki's "logic" is his opinion as you will shortly see. Rather than going after his entire piece, let's just look at the logic used in his refutation of my article. If Mr. Suchecki would like to debate the merits of any of my work, I will be happy to do so publicly via Skype, live or whatever format.
If you read my article he refers to the end where I ask the question "what is the real price of silver, is it what you pay on COMEX/LBMA/pooled account or is it the amount you must pay to receive it in your hand?" If silver is "in your hand", you then know for a FACT you own it, no questions. If you have a "receipt" for silver, how do you know the silver is actually there? Even CME group has disclaimered they cannot guarantee the individual reportings of member firms. COMEX and LBMA (thank you Jeffrey Christian) have already admitted they operate on a fractional reserve basis. How do we know the pooled accounts are not operated in the same fashion? From a logic standpoint, we know for a fact China alone is delivering via SGE more gold than is produced on the planet ...then you can add in India's demand of 1,000+ tons before the rest of the world accounts for even one ounce. Where O where is this supply coming from if no one fesses up to their vaults being depleted? Ft. Knox/West Point are full right? Just look at the audits ...from 1956 (sarcasm). GLD is full although if you read the prospectus you might be surprised at what it could be "full of".
Maybe I am just too skeptical and should be more "trusting"? Most people I know who have purchased gold and silver have done so for the VERY REASON they do not trust their government/system/currency to save their hard earned capital in! As it stands right now, if you want real silver in your hand you must pay a hefty premium over the paper markets. Said differently (by me), if you want to "hope or think" you own silver you can do so by paying a discount to the real thing, it is individual choice. For some people just seeing the word "gold or silver" is good enough, for me it is not. It is my money and my choice. I do not trust the currency markets and do not trust financial institutions for good reason. They have both already proven to be poor stores of long term value and poor custodians during times of stress (we could talk about bail in legislation but a topic for another day, legislation has been written to be used).
It just occurred to me the two articles were like a one two punch from the Canadian powerhouse Kitco and Australia's Perth mint. It's a shame Jon Nadler couldn't still be around to harmonize with Bron Suchecki but I believe this is a case of "they doth protest too much"! In my opinion when all is said and done, I believe one of the largest scandals in all of history will be the discovery "vaulted gold is gone". I believe MANY will discover they do not own what they thought they did and their "pool is not full"...this part is my opinion.
Not opinion is this, physical supply does not and has not for years been able to meet demand. The supply has had to come from somewhere and I do not know where this "somewhere" is. I also know that this "somewhere" must be a place where actual silver or gold exists(ed) and is available for delivery. The reason people own gold or silver is to protect themselves from a financial collapse. Factually, NOTHING has been changed or fixed since the 2008 affair, what comes will be very close to the same thing only worse as debt and leverage ratios are far worse. A financial collapse is mathematically coming, this is not opinion.
Gold and silver are crash insurance and will be "called" on when the markets break. They must be available in a time of crisis to perform their function. If you hold metal in hand, you have no question as to whether you own it. Your alternative is to trust Bron Suchecki et al that your "receipt" is in fact fully backed by metal. If Bill Holter is wrong, you will still have your metal albeit slightly less than you could have had at the discounted paper rates. If Bron Suchecki is wrong and all this paper is not in fact backed, you end up just like everyone else, broke!
I will finish with this. Bill Holter is not asking you to trust him. He is putting forth logic and welcomes you showing where the logic is faulty. I have pointed out Mr. Suchecki's poor logic as it is based on his opinion. He basically says to an investment segment untrusting to begin with ,"trust paper". Sorry Bron, I'd like to but I trust my own eyes far more than you or anyone else's word! Logic is logic and if more gold has been demanded than produced for years upon years, it had to come from somewhere yet no one says their vault has been emptied ...logic tells me someone is lying as to how full their pools really are.
Standing watch,
Bill Holter
Holter-Sinclair collaboration
Comments welcome (even from Bron Suchecki) bholter@Hotmail.com
