今天買貨

中午先去恆生買ANA....下午行行街,老婆買左條金鍊仔...

金價銀價從近期跌勢反彈

金期貨週五小幅走高﹐白銀期貨也走高。本週﹐有關歐洲債務問題蔓延的擔憂主導市場。

紐約商品交易所Comex分部﹐十二月黃金期貨合約結算價漲4.90美元﹐至每盎司1,725.10美元﹐漲幅0.3%。

交投淡靜的十一月黃金期貨結算價漲4.90美元﹐至每盎司1,724.70美元﹐漲幅0.3%。

十二月白銀期貨結算價漲92.0美分﹐至每盎司32.417美元﹐漲幅2.9%。

貴金屬小幅走高﹐因對國際貨幣基金組織(International Monetary Fund, 簡稱IMF)實力增強的預期令市場感到安慰。IMF可能從歐洲央行(European Central Bank)獲得貸款、然後為救助歐元區政府提供資金。如果各方就此達成一致﹐則有可能在12月9日的歐盟(European Union)峰會上宣佈一項協議。但歐元區最大經濟體德國和歐洲央行仍反對上述想法。

週四﹐金、銀價大幅走低﹐黃金期貨下跌3%﹐白銀期貨則下跌超過7%。

但一些市場指標預示﹐投資者的樂觀情緒略有升溫。RBC Capital Markets Global Futures副總裁George Gero表示﹐Comex分部目前的看漲期權合約數量比看跌期權數量多出逾200,000張。

此外﹐由於金價週四創下數週來的最大跌幅﹐一些投資者因此逢低買進。

http://cn.wsj.com/big5/20111119/mkt080345.asp

John Embry - Tremendous Manipulation of Both Gold & Silver

With gold trading at $1,725 and silver above $32, today King World News interviewed John Embry, Chief Investment Strategist of the $10 billion strong Sprott Asset Management to get his take on where he sees gold, silver, the US dollar and the mining shares headed.  When asked about the Australian Conference, where he was a keynote speaker, and the action in gold and silver, Embry responded, “I just got back from Australia last night and I thought the conference was absolutely outstanding.  It was a credit to everyone involved in organizing the event, it was first class.  As far as the action in gold, I don’t want to be arrogant, but I actually know that we have a big option expiry coming up on Tuesday and this is just business as usual.”

John Embry continues:


“I mean these guys are brutal and the CFTC doesn’t regulate a damn thing.  Like I said, it’s just business as usual.  What’s particularly strange this time is even the muppets on CNBC and all of these people who have to make comments on the action are kind of baffled as to why the prices are going down.  Usually they have some weak reason and they are even out of those.


I think it’s spectacularly bullish that sentiment is so incredibly weak in the metals.  I can’t believe that people are basically being influenced to this degree by price action and they are just ignoring the fundamentals.  That is exactly what the people who are creating the price action want.


I have to respect the enemy because they are good at what they do, even though it’s completely illegal in my opinion.  But they do it well and it works in the sense that the average person, who isn’t prepared to study this closely, is influenced by the price action.


They get their eye off the ball and miss what is really going on, which is the fundamentals are sensational and the gold and silver prices are going to multiples of the current prices in the not too distant future.  And if you don’t own this stuff, you’re going to get killed....


When asked about Paul Brodsky’s view that gold is trading at an 80% discount to its real value and so reactions are irrelevant, Embry remarked, “I couldn’t agree more.  I won’t make a price prediction because what you are predicting is how far currencies are going to fall in value.  They could fall to nothing and so the price of gold could be infinite.


The real issue here is to be long because the trend is up.  It’s been up for eleven years and it’s going to be up for a lot longer and the appreciation is going to accelerate.  It’s really interesting if you watch what’s been going on for the last few years because they have controlled the rise.  They can’t stop the rise, but they can control the speed of it.


The last couple of years gold has been up around 26% and guess what?  They are holding it here right now and if the year ended tomorrow we would be up about the same percentage.  I mean nothing that isn’t manipulated works like that.”


When asked about the mining shares, Embry replied, “Basically the shares reflect the action in the bullion.  And as long as they are making the bullion act counter-intuitively, with a push from them, they have affected the public’s perception of the shares.


So consequently when the gold and silver prices get knocked down violently, the shares check back again.  But this is all going to pass and when you compress a spring, when it goes the other way, it’s going to go violently the other way and that’s exactly what’s going to happen with the shares.  I mean there is going to be five and ten baggers all over the place.”

澳門格蘭披治2011

王 SIR-央行購金

黃金短期偏高,長線睇好...1700樓下買返的

債務在不斷累升 羅傑斯看多金銀

羅傑斯認為，歐債危機發生的根源是歐美經濟體在近兩次經濟危機中通過不斷擴大發行債券渡過難關，債務在不斷累升，使危機一次比一次更糟糕。
在他看來，目前西方國家經濟形勢不容樂觀。美國及歐洲已負債累累，美國2008年債務上升了4倍，而現在的債務又比2008年的時候增長了4倍。隨著西方經濟發展的放緩，這些經濟體難以再繼續擴大債務。因此，美歐在下一次危機到來時再不能像前次危機一樣通過擴大發行債券來渡過難關，2012和2013年會遇到比2008年更糟的情況。

羅傑斯稱，唯一能解決問題的出路就是讓那些該破產的國家去破產。破產的過程讓人們難受，但如不採取行動，這些經濟體不斷累積的債務將使情況越來越糟糕。上世紀90年代，日本發生類似情況時，由於未實施破產，在之後二三十年不停地付出代價，金價重新修復自身經濟。
對於歐洲金融穩定機制首席執行官（CEO）希望中國出手幫助歐洲一事，羅傑斯說，作為個人投資者，他本人不會投資歐洲，因為歐洲的問題已很糟糕。如果中國去投資，可以在幫助歐洲時獲得一些回報。
談到中國，羅傑斯認為，受歐美經濟形勢影響，中國經濟可能會暫時放緩，中國政府現階段要面對著通貨膨脹、房價上漲等問題，而未來兩年中國股市還將繼續低迷。現在還沒有買太多中國的股票，但如果情況變得更糟，我可能買進更多中國股票。羅傑斯說。
與此同時，有商品大王之稱的羅傑斯堅定看多黃金、白銀及農產品。他表示，自己對於黃金和白銀非常樂觀。不過，今天我不會去買黃金和白銀。如果它們的價格下降我就進入市場，要是價格下降很多，我就會買更多，因為黃金價格在接下來十年中會上漲。羅傑斯斷言，黃金、白銀在未來幾週或幾個月內有一些投資機會。羅傑斯認為未來十年投資機會還包括小麥和其他農產品。他還表示，美元未來幾年會恢復強勢地位。

虧損太狠 美國郵局即將破產

美國郵政局(USPS)財務長柯伯特(Joe Corbett)15日表示，由於郵件數量繼續減少，再加上經濟持續不振，在9月30日結束的2011年度，該局淨虧損額為51億元，預計2012會計年度會更慘，將創紀錄地虧損141億元，可能欠債違約，處於破產邊緣.
柯伯特在華府的郵政局總部表示，該局在明年9月可能流動資金告罄，由於55億元的健保金支付被推延至2012年度，在9月30日結束的2011年度淨虧損為51億元。包括健保福利金支付在內，2010年度的虧損為85億元。
郵政局長唐納休(Patrick Donahue)警告說，由於第一類郵件的下降幅度超過預期，下年度的虧損只會加大。他呼籲國會迅速採取全面行動，穩定該局的財務狀況。
國會9月份國會把郵政局的健保福利金支付的最後期限推延至11月18日。柯伯特說，如果國會不採取行動，郵政局將債務違約。
在財務上應該完全獨立的郵政局，正在關閉一些分局和郵件處理設施，裁員，促進郵件和包裹的投遞。由於經濟衰退以及私人和企業日益使用電子通訊手段，郵政局處理的郵件量逐年下降，過去五年來降幅超過20%。
參院國內安全與政府事務委員會上週通過一項法案，進一步推延繳納退休健保金的期限，以幫助郵政局度過財務難關。
如果郵政局關閉，聯邦快遞(FedEx)、優比速(UPS)等民營公司也只能分擔郵政局的一小部分郵件，而且民營公司投遞網無法照顧到全國所有地點。