http://chinese.wsj.com/
中國央行週三公佈的數據顯示﹐截至11月底中國M2廣義貨幣供應量較上年同期增加12.7%﹐低於10月底的12.9%﹐略低於經濟學家的預期。
此前接受道瓊斯通訊社(Dow Jones Newswires)調查的14位經濟學家的預期中值顯示﹐截至11月底M2廣義貨幣供應量較上年同期增加12.8%。
中國金融機構11月份新增人民幣貸款5622億元﹐低於10月份的人民幣5,868億元﹐高於經濟學家預期的人民幣5,550億元。
2011年12月14日星期三
WhERE TO KEEP YOUR MONEY AFTER MF Global
http://www.martinarmstrong.org/
I have been getting a lot of emails asking what to do in the aftermath of MF Global. Quite frankly, it is a very difficult question to answer. This game of trading with other people’s money has got to stop. The NY Press will not expose the truth because their biggest client advertisers are the very firms doing this nonsense. Hedge Funds have suffered losses. Readers as far away
as Singapore have their funds frozen when all they had were TBills on deposit. Farmers lost hedge positions. Anyone who wants to really compare the damage, it is 1000 times greater than Madoff and that is conservative. The US had the financial markets that supported it being the Financial Capital of the World.
I have been warning that the USA is in the process of losing that coveted crown of being both the Reserve Currency and the Financial Capital of the World. The US captured that crown from Britain in 1914, who stole in 1689 from the Dutch by putting the Dutch William of Orange on the throne. The Dutch took it from the Germans who had grabbed from the Italians.
So how do we deal with this type of crisis? This is why I have been warning we could be at the edge of such a precipice it may be similar to the Fall of Rome where the currency collapses due to inflation, banks lose a sense of safety forcing people to bury their wealth as the only means of security. As St Jerome said, when Rome Fell, they were still laughing! NY would sooner assassinate me than listen to me. So any idea that they will see the light is absurd. The fall is therefore inevitable. So the questions that are coming are in general like the following:
as Singapore have their funds frozen when all they had were TBills on deposit. Farmers lost hedge positions. Anyone who wants to really compare the damage, it is 1000 times greater than Madoff and that is conservative. The US had the financial markets that supported it being the Financial Capital of the World.
I have been warning that the USA is in the process of losing that coveted crown of being both the Reserve Currency and the Financial Capital of the World. The US captured that crown from Britain in 1914, who stole in 1689 from the Dutch by putting the Dutch William of Orange on the throne. The Dutch took it from the Germans who had grabbed from the Italians.
Asia is rising. Real Estate has still been booming long past the USA. These titles of Reserve Currency and the Financial Capital of the World are not permanent fixtures. They are always lost by corruption and arrogance. I could stand on the top of the NY Empire State Building and scream into the loudest sound system ever, and warn NY that it is digging its own grave big enough for the whole world to get sucked in. They would never listen, laugh, and say I was the lunatic fringe. Nevertheless, all societies really die by their own hand. It is fruitless to try to warn them. They will imprison you or kill you to keep that crown of glory. As show above, nobody has ever held that crown because of their own arrogance and corruption.
The West will simply fall – It’s Just Time. European politicians will not solve a simple problem the right way because they would lose power that comes at the end of the day. Washington will not clean up New York because they are owned by New York. It is what it is. We have to accept the likelihood of a Hollywood ending “happily ever after” is just not going to work out. Sometime marriages end in divorce and our political-economy are two words that should have been divorced the first moment they met.
The US legislative government is made up of far too many morons and Judases who grab the purse of silver and think nothing about their own progeny. The money is here today. Tomorrow’s another day. This has been the thinking in New York. If you rob a bank and give the money to a friend they go after the friend. What are counterparties (banks) exempt in this case? The crisis at MF Global is systemic – it is not a unique case.
The West will simply fall – It’s Just Time. European politicians will not solve a simple problem the right way because they would lose power that comes at the end of the day. Washington will not clean up New York because they are owned by New York. It is what it is. We have to accept the likelihood of a Hollywood ending “happily ever after” is just not going to work out. Sometime marriages end in divorce and our political-economy are two words that should have been divorced the first moment they met.
The US legislative government is made up of far too many morons and Judases who grab the purse of silver and think nothing about their own progeny. The money is here today. Tomorrow’s another day. This has been the thinking in New York. If you rob a bank and give the money to a friend they go after the friend. What are counterparties (banks) exempt in this case? The crisis at MF Global is systemic – it is not a unique case.
So how do we deal with this type of crisis? This is why I have been warning we could be at the edge of such a precipice it may be similar to the Fall of Rome where the currency collapses due to inflation, banks lose a sense of safety forcing people to bury their wealth as the only means of security. As St Jerome said, when Rome Fell, they were still laughing! NY would sooner assassinate me than listen to me. So any idea that they will see the light is absurd. The fall is therefore inevitable. So the questions that are coming are in general like the following:
Dear Mr Armstrong,
...
I am a Canadian investor who holds individual securities (gold and silver miners) , mutual funds(same), a hedge fund (same), and registered accounts, (called registered retirement savings plan) in Canada.
...
I am a Canadian investor who holds individual securities (gold and silver miners) , mutual funds(same), a hedge fund (same), and registered accounts, (called registered retirement savings plan) in Canada.
I am very worried about what sounds like a license to steal in the investment business. The recent MF global implosion seems to have left Canadian accounts unscathed according to the Canadian Investor Protection Fund. I have recently given thought to removing all of my money completely from the investment industry and going to physical gold and silver bullion only to avoid counterparty risk.
It appears that mutual funds and hedge funds are almost impossible to protect from MF Global types of schemes. Are individual securities held in certificate form safe ways to hold paper or are there many other schemes that could have me lose them also? Registered accounts in Canada seem totally susceptible also to hypothecation or other forms of counterparty risk not to mention governments could confiscate them, heavily tax them etc.
I understand that you would not want to give investment advice. My problem is that getting advice from anyone who knows the system is impossible. There are so few people who have the knowledge you possess of trading globally and the inner working of the corruption that exists.
...
Burying your money today is not realistic. Any broker you deal with, insist you want an agreement that NO assets or cash may be placed in REPO markets, lent out to any third party or used for their trading! This should be used by hedge funds as well. Those who invest in hedge funds should DEMAND that the hedge fund insists upon the same terms with any brokerage house or bank and that it itself will not place assets on loan to any such entities. If you have shares/stocks and you are not borrowing or using them for collateral, take delivery. If everyone starts to demand these actions to open any account, the industry will start to self-police. The regulators are worthless – they do not audit and have NEVER prevented a damn thing. They should be shut down and replaced with a new entity of which NO previous employees may be hired for they will bring the old ways with them. Because there could be a bank holiday like FDR did in the future because of the Sovereign Debt Crisis, try to keep 6 months of cash outside the bank to live on just in case. 
2011年12月13日星期二
欧洲银行大量出借 黄金价格大跌技术面恶化
因对欧洲经济一体化协议的疑虑促使金价跌破技术位，国际现货黄金周一(12月12日)下挫约3%，创近三个月来最大单日跌幅。分析师指出，欧系银行为获得美元而出借黄金造成黄金供应过剩，且技术面已恶化，预计黄金未来几个交易日将进一步走低，考验更多支撑位。
Dundee Wealth首席经济学家Martin Murenbeeld称，银行大量出借黄金换回美元进行掉期，造成以美元计价的黄金大跌，一些观察人士甚至认为这是央行在抛售。
他称，当黄金租赁利率全部降至负值区间时，银行将停止出借。
目前，一个月期黄金租赁利率已降至负值区间。
黄金租赁利率为伦敦银行间拆借利率(Libor)与黄金出借利率(GOFO)之差。通常情况下，Libor比GOFO高，因此，黄金租赁利率为正值。
摩根大通(JPMorgan)金属研究部门主管Michael Jansen称，实货市场显现出短期内疲弱的些许迹象，因此无法消化这些银行供应的黄金。
现货黄金周一盘中最低曾触及近两个月低位1,657.04美元/盎司。下一重要支撑将在约为每盎司1,615美元的200日移动均线切入位。
南非标准银行(Standard Bank)称，尽管金价在本交易日跌破了几个支撑水平，但守住了200天移动均线的支撑位。该行指出，自2009年年初以来，金价每每触及该水平时都实现会反弹。
花旗集团(Citi)旗下技术研究公司CitiFX首席技术性策略师Tom Fitzpatrick称，近期而言，金价将继续下挫，至少将跌至1,615美元附近区域，甚至更低。
他称，技术面正在形成头肩顶形态，表明黄金可能大举逼近9月所及低位，跌向1,550美元，甚至跌破该位。
北京时间09：46，现货黄金价格报1653.18美元/盎司。
【免责声明】本文仅代表作者本人观点，与中国黄金投资网无关。中国黄金投资网站对文中陈述、观点判断保持中立，不对所包含内容的准确性、可靠性或完整性提供任何明示或暗示的保证。请读者仅作参考，并请自行承担全部责任。
Dundee Wealth首席经济学家Martin Murenbeeld称，银行大量出借黄金换回美元进行掉期，造成以美元计价的黄金大跌，一些观察人士甚至认为这是央行在抛售。
他称，当黄金租赁利率全部降至负值区间时，银行将停止出借。
目前，一个月期黄金租赁利率已降至负值区间。
黄金租赁利率为伦敦银行间拆借利率(Libor)与黄金出借利率(GOFO)之差。通常情况下，Libor比GOFO高，因此，黄金租赁利率为正值。
摩根大通(JPMorgan)金属研究部门主管Michael Jansen称，实货市场显现出短期内疲弱的些许迹象，因此无法消化这些银行供应的黄金。
现货黄金周一盘中最低曾触及近两个月低位1,657.04美元/盎司。下一重要支撑将在约为每盎司1,615美元的200日移动均线切入位。
南非标准银行(Standard Bank)称，尽管金价在本交易日跌破了几个支撑水平，但守住了200天移动均线的支撑位。该行指出，自2009年年初以来，金价每每触及该水平时都实现会反弹。
花旗集团(Citi)旗下技术研究公司CitiFX首席技术性策略师Tom Fitzpatrick称，近期而言，金价将继续下挫，至少将跌至1,615美元附近区域，甚至更低。
他称，技术面正在形成头肩顶形态，表明黄金可能大举逼近9月所及低位，跌向1,550美元，甚至跌破该位。
北京时间09：46，现货黄金价格报1653.18美元/盎司。
【免责声明】本文仅代表作者本人观点，与中国黄金投资网无关。中国黄金投资网站对文中陈述、观点判断保持中立，不对所包含内容的准确性、可靠性或完整性提供任何明示或暗示的保证。请读者仅作参考，并请自行承担全部责任。
2011年12月12日星期一
金市與歐債共舞
石林
本報上周末的社評說到「國際金融市場與歐債共舞」，上周的金市確屬如此，金價跟隨來自歐盟的消息急促地上下波動，在周初從1754元（美元．下同）跌到1702元，後竟回彈到1756元的比周初更略高位，但迅即又跌回到1704元，不過在周末仍力守1703元，最後以1711.3元收市，比前周跌1.9％。
銀市亦有類似的市況，更在周四的一天內體現了全周的波幅，即高位止步於33.22元，低位力守着31.37元，周末以32.23元收市，全周僅微跌0.7％。
歐盟峰會總算達到一定成果，二十六國首腦同意遵守新的財政整合，使歐羅暫時避過了解體的危機。這次歐洲央行處理危機的方法與美國不同，並非大舉購買毒資產，主要是向銀行提供流動性。因此歐羅滙價在弱中仍穩，商品價格向淡但無大跌。
運行到三角形尖端
回看金市的技術圖表，金價仍繼續維持在自9月初以來的一個大型的「三角形」模式內反覆上落，雖然嚴格地說該三角形的頂線和底線最近都經過略為擴闊的調節。如今此三角形快將走到它本身的尖端，亦即是說市勢將不得不選擇一個較明確的方向了。
另外，我們如果覺得上述三角形的頂線和底線不時發生擴闊性的調節，使突破訊息顯得模糊的話，那不妨採用另一走勢術語，那就是金市正在以一個「收緊中的螺旋形」（Tightening Coiling Pattern）模式來運行。但即使是如此，該螺旋形亦顯得愈發收窄，也快屆臨要作出一個方向選擇的時候了。
迄今的金市評論的主流意見依然傾向看好，但敝欄對此繼續有所保留。主要原因是歐羅雖暫免解體，但歐洲仍拿不出徹底解決危機的辦法，歐洲信貸依然在收縮，世界經濟陷入衰退的陰影依然揮之不去，商品和金銀價格繼續調整的可能性大於又再明顯攀升。
有關這點我們可從上周末的連續商品指數（CCI）圖表看到某些迹象，該指數最近繼續沿着自9月初以來的下降軌下滑，周末收市的567點已低於相鄰的前一低位570點，正在指向10月初所創的563點的今年最低水平。
資金缺乏入市興趣
在當前經濟收縮的可能性大於擴張可能性的大前提下，無怪金銀兩市的倉位狀況（COT）近數月經常顯得相當利好價格的時候，大投機者都缺乏再大規模入市的興趣，以致期金市場的未平倉合約量（O.I.）減縮至只有42萬餘張，為三年來的低水平。期銀市的O.I.現更減縮至僅得9.6萬張的低水平。我們很難想像在這樣低倉量的背景下金銀價格可以大升，即使是迫倉也沒有多少空倉要大規模回補。
上周金價回彈到1756元時即行急促再跌，這正是上文說的圖表三角形頂線水平，此行情表現無疑是強化了自1920元金市歷史高位以降的一條主要中期下降軌，除非金價很快可以重返1767元之上方可改寫這局面。
假如近日金價一直被壓在1738元之下，則恐怕近期支持1700元難再力守。萬一連1671元都棄守，便確認市勢是作出一個再向下的選擇。
銀市已早於金市棄守了一個大型「三角形」，目前處於缺乏動力狀態，日線圖的RSI和Full STO盤桓在50附近水平，MACD的「牛熊差」維持在零水平。估計34元仍是銀市的回升阻力，短期內若無法重返至33.22元之上，則恐怕31.37元難再力守。同樣地，萬一連30.66元都棄守，便說明銀市再選擇繼續向下。
我們宜留意金市快要作出方向性的選擇，但延遲至運行到「三角形」尖端才被迫突破，或許並非是一個有力突破。
本報上周末的社評說到「國際金融市場與歐債共舞」，上周的金市確屬如此，金價跟隨來自歐盟的消息急促地上下波動，在周初從1754元（美元．下同）跌到1702元，後竟回彈到1756元的比周初更略高位，但迅即又跌回到1704元，不過在周末仍力守1703元，最後以1711.3元收市，比前周跌1.9％。
銀市亦有類似的市況，更在周四的一天內體現了全周的波幅，即高位止步於33.22元，低位力守着31.37元，周末以32.23元收市，全周僅微跌0.7％。
歐盟峰會總算達到一定成果，二十六國首腦同意遵守新的財政整合，使歐羅暫時避過了解體的危機。這次歐洲央行處理危機的方法與美國不同，並非大舉購買毒資產，主要是向銀行提供流動性。因此歐羅滙價在弱中仍穩，商品價格向淡但無大跌。
運行到三角形尖端
回看金市的技術圖表，金價仍繼續維持在自9月初以來的一個大型的「三角形」模式內反覆上落，雖然嚴格地說該三角形的頂線和底線最近都經過略為擴闊的調節。如今此三角形快將走到它本身的尖端，亦即是說市勢將不得不選擇一個較明確的方向了。
另外，我們如果覺得上述三角形的頂線和底線不時發生擴闊性的調節，使突破訊息顯得模糊的話，那不妨採用另一走勢術語，那就是金市正在以一個「收緊中的螺旋形」（Tightening Coiling Pattern）模式來運行。但即使是如此，該螺旋形亦顯得愈發收窄，也快屆臨要作出一個方向選擇的時候了。
迄今的金市評論的主流意見依然傾向看好，但敝欄對此繼續有所保留。主要原因是歐羅雖暫免解體，但歐洲仍拿不出徹底解決危機的辦法，歐洲信貸依然在收縮，世界經濟陷入衰退的陰影依然揮之不去，商品和金銀價格繼續調整的可能性大於又再明顯攀升。
有關這點我們可從上周末的連續商品指數（CCI）圖表看到某些迹象，該指數最近繼續沿着自9月初以來的下降軌下滑，周末收市的567點已低於相鄰的前一低位570點，正在指向10月初所創的563點的今年最低水平。
資金缺乏入市興趣
在當前經濟收縮的可能性大於擴張可能性的大前提下，無怪金銀兩市的倉位狀況（COT）近數月經常顯得相當利好價格的時候，大投機者都缺乏再大規模入市的興趣，以致期金市場的未平倉合約量（O.I.）減縮至只有42萬餘張，為三年來的低水平。期銀市的O.I.現更減縮至僅得9.6萬張的低水平。我們很難想像在這樣低倉量的背景下金銀價格可以大升，即使是迫倉也沒有多少空倉要大規模回補。
上周金價回彈到1756元時即行急促再跌，這正是上文說的圖表三角形頂線水平，此行情表現無疑是強化了自1920元金市歷史高位以降的一條主要中期下降軌，除非金價很快可以重返1767元之上方可改寫這局面。
假如近日金價一直被壓在1738元之下，則恐怕近期支持1700元難再力守。萬一連1671元都棄守，便確認市勢是作出一個再向下的選擇。
銀市已早於金市棄守了一個大型「三角形」，目前處於缺乏動力狀態，日線圖的RSI和Full STO盤桓在50附近水平，MACD的「牛熊差」維持在零水平。估計34元仍是銀市的回升阻力，短期內若無法重返至33.22元之上，則恐怕31.37元難再力守。同樣地，萬一連30.66元都棄守，便說明銀市再選擇繼續向下。
我們宜留意金市快要作出方向性的選擇，但延遲至運行到「三角形」尖端才被迫突破，或許並非是一個有力突破。
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