2012年10月31日星期三
“Gold cards” are the new bribe in China
October 29, 2012,
En route to Los Angeles.
Greetings from Hong Kong International Airport; just a quick note today as I’m just about to hop a plane bound for California.
Before I head out, I wanted to tell you about an interesting trend we’ve been seeing and hearing about from our business colleagues in Asia.
Yesterday we briefly discussed how demand for physical gold in Hong Kong is surging right now; this is in no small part due to the droves of mainland Chinese coming across the border.
Many of them head to Shenzhen and walk over into Hong Kong. They often use older people as ‘gold mules’ to smuggle in their precious metals. The elderly typically receive great deference in China, so they aren’t screened as vigorously at land border checkpoints. It makes it easier to carry in 50-100 ounces.
When mainlanders arrive, they store their gold in a safety deposit box at one of Hong Kong’s many banks, and typically try to buy even more.
This is one of the chief reasons why there’s a dearth of inventory in Hong Kong right now, particularly for the Chinese panda coin that they’re so familiar with.
Hong Kong also seems to be a popular place for Chinese bureaucrats to store their ill-gotten wealth. In fact, one of the new trends we’ve seen and heard about from business colleagues in Asia is how mainland officials are now receiving bribes in the form of solid gold business cards.
Imagine you’re a businessman in Xian who needs some silly permit, and you have to grease a local bureaucrat. It would be untoward to deliver a suitcase full of cash… especially these days with all the internal scrutiny from the Bo Xilai incident.
So now what business people seem to be doing is minting solid gold business cards. When they want to bribe an official, they schedule a meeting, and hand them a business card or six. It’s so innocuous, nobody really notices.
For the bureaucrat, it’s much simpler to travel with a few ‘gold cards’ than cash. And Hong Kong is an easy place to store a collection of such cards… or even melt them down into other forms.
I have to run, they’re about to close the aircraft door! Talk to you on the other side… and best of luck if you’re without power at the moment.
Original Source
En route to Los Angeles.
Greetings from Hong Kong International Airport; just a quick note today as I’m just about to hop a plane bound for California.
Before I head out, I wanted to tell you about an interesting trend we’ve been seeing and hearing about from our business colleagues in Asia.
Yesterday we briefly discussed how demand for physical gold in Hong Kong is surging right now; this is in no small part due to the droves of mainland Chinese coming across the border.
Many of them head to Shenzhen and walk over into Hong Kong. They often use older people as ‘gold mules’ to smuggle in their precious metals. The elderly typically receive great deference in China, so they aren’t screened as vigorously at land border checkpoints. It makes it easier to carry in 50-100 ounces.
When mainlanders arrive, they store their gold in a safety deposit box at one of Hong Kong’s many banks, and typically try to buy even more.
This is one of the chief reasons why there’s a dearth of inventory in Hong Kong right now, particularly for the Chinese panda coin that they’re so familiar with.
Hong Kong also seems to be a popular place for Chinese bureaucrats to store their ill-gotten wealth. In fact, one of the new trends we’ve seen and heard about from business colleagues in Asia is how mainland officials are now receiving bribes in the form of solid gold business cards.
Imagine you’re a businessman in Xian who needs some silly permit, and you have to grease a local bureaucrat. It would be untoward to deliver a suitcase full of cash… especially these days with all the internal scrutiny from the Bo Xilai incident.
So now what business people seem to be doing is minting solid gold business cards. When they want to bribe an official, they schedule a meeting, and hand them a business card or six. It’s so innocuous, nobody really notices.
For the bureaucrat, it’s much simpler to travel with a few ‘gold cards’ than cash. And Hong Kong is an easy place to store a collection of such cards… or even melt them down into other forms.
I have to run, they’re about to close the aircraft door! Talk to you on the other side… and best of luck if you’re without power at the moment.
Original Source
羅姆尼是金價走勢的重大威脅
美國
2012年10月31日 10:59 文 / 莫西幹
FT：如果讓黃金投資者決定美國大選結果，那羅姆尼肯定出局。
黃金狂熱者一直擔心潛在的貨幣貶值，而最為關注的又是美國政府的負債問題。共和黨的削減財政赤字政治理念引起了他們的注意。
所以，下週二美國大選羅姆尼勝出可能是金價當前最大的單一風險。
瑞銀的Joni Teves表示：“投資者廣泛認為羅姆尼勝出是金價下行的風險。在大選結果出來前，沒有人會有大動作。”
歷史數據支持了這個觀點。匯豐的James Steel指出，在1980到2011年間，金價大部分大漲都發生在民主黨人入主白宮的時候（卡特和奧巴馬）。如果羅姆尼能成功消滅財政赤字，這樣可能導緻美元走強，也意味著金價走低。
但真實的“羅姆尼威脅”並不是在財政政策上。交易員和投資者更為關注的是，如果羅姆尼獲勝，他很可能用一個鷹派人物替代伯南克美聯儲主席的位置——伯南克的現有任期將在2014年1月結束。
如果這意味著改變當前實驗性的超寬鬆貨幣政策方向，金價肯定受害。今年年初，當預期QE政策推出時間被推遲，黃金市場出現了拋售。
一個大型對沖基金投資者表示：“從黃金市場的角度，美聯儲是重要的因素。”
同理，奧巴馬勝出可能被看作是金價牛市的啟動信號。
這不但意味著將與很可能被共和黨控制的眾議院引發激烈的爭論，但更重要的是這意味著消除了貨幣政策出現重大變化的可能性。在奧巴馬的任期內，伯南克很可能會被一位鴿派人物替代，比如說現任美聯儲副主席Janet Yellen。
一些交易商已經開始津津有味地預期奧巴馬的勝利。
位於芝加哥的珠寶集團House of Kahn副主席Tobina Kahn預期銷售會上升，“因為大家都希望保護資產價值。”“如果奧巴馬獲勝，金價將會起飛。”
訂閱：
文章 (Atom)