SHOCKING CHART: The Silver Supply Crunch Continues

There is no other way to describe the radical change that has taken place in several areas of the silver supply market this year other than to say…. it’s quite shocking.  While certain analysts stated that the silver supply would indeed fall this year, I don’t believe anyone could have envisioned the kind of declines displayed in the chart below.

When I first discussed this subject matter in an interview last month, I thought there might be a chance that this silver data was incorrect… a typo of some sort.  However, the second quarter figures that were just released, do confirm just how dreadful silver supply has fallen from these two areas.

With the ongoing surge in physical silver investment demand and the rapidly falling Registered Silver Inventories at the COMEX, any decline in silver supply will only exacerbate the current tightness in the silver market.

Now, when we talk about “Declines”, the market normally states changes in the 2-5% range.  This may not seem like a lot, but when we are discussing large figures, 2-5% can add up to a lot of silver.  That being said, the figures shown in the graph below… ARE TOTALLY OFF THE CHARTS:

According to the data put out by official sources, Canada’s silver production (Jan-Jun) this year is down nearly 20% and Australia’s is down a stunning 30%. While it’s true that Canada isn’t a large silver producer, a 20% decline is still a big number in my book.  The reason for the decline in Canadian silver production is due to several large base metal zinc mines shutting down operations last year.

As for why Australia’s silver production fell a whopping 30% decline (9.5 million oz) in the first half of the year, part of the reason may be due to a major drop in supply from the world’s largest silver mine… the Cannington Mine.  Regardless, the combined silver supply from these two countries fell a stunning 11 million oz, 28% in just the first half of the year.

Even though silver production has declined from some of the other leading producers, it’s quite surprising to see the 4th ranked country in the world suffer a 30% reduction in supply in one year.

According to the data put out by several sources (Mexico INEGI, Peru Ministry of Energy & Mines, Australia Dept. of Energy & Resources and Chile’s Cochilco) here are the trends of the top five producers for half-year:

Top Five Silver Producers Change (Jan-Jun)

Mexico = -5%

Peru = +3.8%

China = EVEN

Australia = -30%

Chile = -6%

Unfortunately, falling world silver supply is taking place at the very same time as physical silver investment demand is skyrocketing.  As I stated in several interviews, I believe the current draw-down of Registered Silver Inventories at the COMEX is mainly due to this huge increase investment demand as industrial silver demand is likely shrinking.

It will be interesting to see how events play out in the financial and broader stock markets over the next few months.  If we do see major declines in these markets indices, this could cause even more investors to buy gold and silver.

If you think wait times of 2 months for certain silver investment products are long now… who knows how bad things could get in the future.

巴西货币暴贬首批受害者：债券投资者亏49%本金

巴西雷亚尔大幅贬值

【推荐阅读】

为赚100年后的钱 有一群傻瓜花钱帮巴西收集“垃圾”

巴西雷亚尔大幅贬值已经有了首批受害者：General ShoppingBrasil SA的债券。

据彭博消息，这家购物商城运营商提出折价回购价值不超过5000万美元的优先票据：如果债券持有人9月29日之前同意，价格为面值的51%；如果再过两周，则是面值的48%。虽然这样的交易对投资者而言是巨大亏损，但很多基金经理建议投资者接受，因为这家总部位于圣保罗的公司可能会申请破产保护。而且，General Shopping已经在9月20日错过了对1.5亿美元次级债的利率兑付。

随着巴西经济可能陷入大萧条以来最长的经济衰退，General Shopping并不是第一家出问题的公司。但今年其他公司的债务违约——包括CeagroAgricola Ltda和OAS SA——要么跟大宗商品下跌有关，要么跟庞大的腐败丑闻有关。General Shopping的问题与众不同：由于本币大幅贬值，且该公司全部收入都是雷亚尔，其美元债务让其不堪重负。

“只要货币大幅贬值，就有企业亏损惨重，”纽约Torino Capital首席执行官Jorge Piedrahita表示。“有大量美元债务的企业风险更大，违约案件在增加。”

市场对巴西前景感到悲观

巴西雷亚尔暴跌，因在巴西国会考虑推翻总统限制了预算支出的否决权之际，投资者日益对巴西总统罗塞夫是否有能力提振巴西预算感到悲观。

截至圣保罗时间09:56，巴西雷亚尔/美元下跌0.8%至3.9786，势将创收盘历史新低。此前杂志《Exame》报道，国会最早将于周二召开会议，就此前遭罗塞夫否决的措施举行投票，即连续四年每年增加开支约257亿雷亚尔(65亿美元)。

“由于政治谈判的缘故，气氛凝重，如果美元/雷亚尔触及4这一关键门槛，我不会感到意外，”London Capital Group的分析师Ipek Ozkardeskaya表示。

上周巴西雷亚尔领跌全球货币，因市场揣测，鉴于罗塞夫缺乏国会支持以及此前巴西众议院议员开始正式讨论弹劾总统的可能，罗塞夫关于控制预算赤字的提案不会获得成功。

按收盘水平衡量，巴西雷亚尔/美元此前于2002年10月创纪录低位3.9505。

俄罗斯8月大量买入黄金储备 意味浓厚

俄罗斯央行周五(9月18日)公布了8月黄金储备的数据，结果显示俄央行8月继续在低廉的价格下大量买入黄金储备。8月该央行购买黄金储备的数额达到至少至3月以来的最大水平。

俄央行官网资料显示，8月份持有黄金量由前月的4140万盎司增至4240万盎司，增加的100万盎司(28.3公吨)是继今年3月添购30.5公吨以来最高纪录。当时增购黄金规模同样为6个月来新高。

根据国际货币基金(IMF)提供数据，俄罗斯持有的黄金量自2005年以来已暴增3倍多，达到至少1993年以来新高，跻身全球第6大黄金持有国。俄国持续稳定增持黄金，即便因乌克兰冲突遭到西方制裁，加上油价崩跌造成卢布重贬。

俄罗斯目前是世界第六大黄金央行储备量国家，仅次于刚刚更新黄金储备的中国。该央行近年来大量购买黄金储备，自2005年来黄金储备已经增长至之前的三倍，达到1993年以来最大的水平。尽管近期俄罗斯因乌克兰等问题受到西方国家制裁，但是黄金储备的购买仍然在继续。原油价格下跌使卢布贬值，导致以卢布计价的黄金在过去一年内上涨了60%。

BullionVault研究主管Adrian Ash表示，“俄罗斯已经致力于增加其黄金储备很长一段时间了，而目前这一行动的政治味道尤为明显。新兴市场对于黄金的需求继续扩大，这对于黄金价格是明显的利好信息。”

俄罗斯在7月购买了约13吨黄金储备，而在6月购买了24吨。同时中国、哈萨克斯坦、乌克兰以及白俄罗斯都是近期大量扩大黄金储备的国家。

美联储尽管在9月会议上决定维持利率不变，但年内加息的可能性仍然很高。黄金已经在年内下跌近4%至1140美元附近。金价将有可能再度年内收跌。这为各国央行购买黄金储备带来便利。全球央行近年来整体趋向于增加黄金储备，自二十世纪八十年代以来二十多年的削减黄金储备趋势正在消退。

哪些貨幣計金價最能看出黃金的避險保值功能？

FX168讯 黄金是自古以来的避险保值资产，近年以来，随着金价的大跌，黄金的这一功能受到了很大的质疑。然而不得不注意的是，国际金价，也就是美元计金价之所以表现疲软，很大程度上是因为美元的表现强劲，在一些货币表现糟糕的国家，黄金的表现事实上是非常能够体现避险保值功能的。
近期叙利亚难民问题是全球焦点，陷入战乱的叙利亚国内，以叙利亚货币计的金价在2013年国际金价下跌时却逆势大幅上涨，至今已经翻番。

同样陷于战争困境中的乌克兰也是差不多的情况，以乌克兰格里夫纳计算的金价在2013年曾经有过下跌，但此后随着局势的升级，金价大幅上涨，今年金价一度距离2014年年初水平翻四番，目前也有差不多2.5倍的涨幅。

除了战争，经济出现问题的一些国家金价也同样有差不多的表现。

南非兰特计金价在2013年国际金价大跌时却有震荡上行，巴西雷亚尔计金价自2013年起也有将近翻番的表现。

 校对：巴飞特

Is Your "Pool" Full?

Jim Sinclair

My Dear Extended Family,       

 

Yesterday was a very interesting day, first my mailbox was jammed with readers saying "did you see what Bron Suchecki had to say about you"? http://research.perthmint.com.au/2015/09/14/who-is-the-player-and-who-is-being-played/ Then a second wave of e-mails came through asking if I had seen the article Kitco put out regarding COMEX inventories? http://www.kitco.com/news/2015-09-15/Don-t-Believe-The-Hype-Comex-Gold-Warehouses-Well-Stocked-Two-Analysts.html

 

Before hitting Mr. Bron over the head with logic, let's look at the Kitco article titled "Don't believe the hype, COMEX warehouses well stocked".   First it is worth noting Kitco's article cites only two sources, Barclays and CPM group. If you recall back in 2010 during the CFTC hearing, Jeffrey Christian of CPM accidentally spilled the beans when he said what they called the "physical market" was actually more than 100-1 paper to actual gold. Barclays and CPM are perennially long term bullish and short term neutral/bearish, for that matter, most articles I read out of Kitco are similar. It is as if they try to temper immediate demand for product, Jon Nadler of Kitco was living proof of that. Why does Kitco continually put out "opinion" pieces negative to their own product? Are they afraid of a stampede? The obvious question in my own mind is how would their pooled accounts fare under such circumstance?

 

Getting to the heart of their article, registered stocks of COMEX gold are now barely over 5 tons and JP Morgan's position is about 1/3rd of one ton. I can remember when 30 tons or much more was normal for the registered category and I seem to remember just a couple of months back JP Morgan claimed nearly 20 tons registered. So no matter what spin Kitco puts on this, the current registered warehouse stocks are ridiculously low. To put these tiny hoards into perspective, 5 tons of gold is the laughable number of $176 million, JP Morgan's position is no bigger than a single large retail client at about $10 million! 

 

Switching over to Bron Suchecki of The Perth Mint of Australia, first I want to say "thank you" for thinking "Bill Holter" is important enough to refute. He wrote "Bill Holter may not think that you should be shocked about 25% premiums in silver and that "whatever you must pay to get it into your hands" is fine. Personally I can't see the sense of paying 25% when for a few percent you can buy physically backed pool accounts." First it should be said Mr. Suchecki's "logic" is his opinion as you will shortly see. Rather than going after his entire piece, let's just look at the logic used in his refutation of my article. If Mr. Suchecki would like to debate the merits of any of my work, I will be happy to do so publicly via Skype, live or whatever format.

 

If you read my article he refers to the end where I ask the question "what is the real price of silver, is it what you pay on COMEX/LBMA/pooled account or is it the amount you must pay to receive it in your hand?" If silver is "in your hand", you then know for a FACT you own it, no questions. If you have a "receipt" for silver, how do you know the silver is actually there? Even CME group has disclaimered they cannot guarantee the individual reportings of member firms. COMEX and LBMA (thank you Jeffrey Christian) have already admitted they operate on a fractional reserve basis. How do we know the pooled accounts are not operated in the same fashion? From a logic standpoint, we know for a fact China alone is delivering via SGE more gold than is produced on the planet ...then you can add in India's demand of 1,000+ tons before the rest of the world accounts for even one ounce. Where O where is this supply coming from if no one fesses up to their vaults being depleted? Ft. Knox/West Point are full right? Just look at the audits ...from 1956 (sarcasm). GLD is full although if you read the prospectus you might be surprised at what it could be "full of".

 

Maybe I am just too skeptical and should be more "trusting"? Most people I know who have purchased gold and silver have done so for the VERY REASON they do not trust their government/system/currency to save their hard earned capital in! As it stands right now, if you want real silver in your hand you must pay a hefty premium over the paper markets. Said differently (by me), if you want to "hope or think" you own silver you can do so by paying a discount to the real thing, it is individual choice. For some people just seeing the word "gold or silver" is good enough, for me it is not. It is my money and my choice. I do not trust the currency markets and do not trust financial institutions for good reason. They have both already proven to be poor stores of long term value and poor custodians during times of stress (we could talk about bail in legislation but a topic for another day, legislation has been written to be used).

 

It just occurred to me the two articles were like a one two punch from the Canadian powerhouse Kitco and Australia's Perth mint. It's a shame Jon Nadler couldn't still be around to harmonize with Bron Suchecki but I believe this is a case of "they doth protest too much"! In my opinion when all is said and done, I believe one of the largest scandals in all of history will be the discovery "vaulted gold is gone". I believe MANY will discover they do not own what they thought they did and their "pool is not full"...this part is my opinion.

 

Not opinion is this, physical supply does not and has not for years been able to meet demand. The supply has had to come from somewhere and I do not know where this "somewhere" is. I also know that this "somewhere" must be a place where actual silver or gold exists(ed) and is available for delivery. The reason people own gold or silver is to protect themselves from a financial collapse. Factually, NOTHING has been changed or fixed since the 2008 affair, what comes will be very close to the same thing only worse as debt and leverage ratios are far worse. A financial collapse is mathematically coming, this is not opinion.

 

Gold and silver are crash insurance and will be "called" on when the markets break. They must be available in a time of crisis to perform their function. If you hold metal in hand, you have no question as to whether you own it. Your alternative is to trust Bron Suchecki et al that your "receipt" is in fact fully backed by metal. If Bill Holter is wrong, you will still have your metal albeit slightly less than you could have had at the discounted paper rates. If Bron Suchecki is wrong and all this paper is not in fact backed, you end up just like everyone else, broke! 

 

I will finish with this. Bill Holter is not asking you to trust him. He is putting forth logic and welcomes you showing where the logic is faulty. I have pointed out Mr. Suchecki's poor logic as it is based on his opinion. He basically says to an investment segment untrusting to begin with ,"trust paper". Sorry Bron, I'd like to but I trust my own eyes far more than you or anyone else's word! Logic is logic and if more gold has been demanded than produced for years upon years, it had to come from somewhere yet no one says their vault has been emptied ...logic tells me someone is lying as to how full their pools really are.

 

Standing watch, 

 

Bill Holter
Holter-Sinclair collaboration
Comments welcome (even from Bron Suchecki) bholter@Hotmail.com

中國真正問題是高債務

江宗仁

中國真正問題是高債務

2015年9月15日
【明報專訊】恒指升57點，收報21,561點，成交金額695億元。內地股市突然急挫，中小股成重災區，創業板大跌7.5%，兩市多達1500隻股份跌停，中

証 500指數期貨亦跌停。此前每當跌市均以打壓股指期貨來應對，但現在按金已達40%又只能做10手，再打壓就不如關掉它，亦說不定中證監會轉戰現貨，每天 沽出逾一定數量就等於異常交易。港股這邊相當淡定，始終已跌至多年最低水平，內銀股市帳率也直撲0.7倍，除非爆發大規模金融危機，否則也很難再顯著下 跌。 

周末期間公布的經濟數字欠佳，但基本面差人所共知，不構成重大利淡；市場對國企改革早已沒有期望，周日公布的方案只強調防止國有資產流失，就連混改時間表亦欠奉，令市場更為失望，但「利好」落空也應該是國企改革概念股受拖累，現實卻是創業板最傷。

A股再跌，或許原因很簡單，就是貴。AH股溢價指數達135，A股大升前才80，而兩市估值中位數亦依然是全球最高之一。單論滬深300指數及國指的市帳率，分別為1.73倍及0.94，如此巨大差距，下拉力巨大。中證監救市，救得一時救不了一世。

中 央早前表明財政政策要發力，路透社報道，中國當局已收回1萬億元人民幣的未使用地方政府預算資金，相當於2015年中國政府支出預算總額的約6%。以降低 後的項目資本金20%計算，可以撬動5萬億元的投資。面對近期內憂外患、市場人心虛怯，中央似乎已下定決心搞刺激，先把數字做上去、穩住市場信心再說。但 單憑中央發力，在房地產投資依然無起色、製造業投資者又每況愈下，恐怕還是跟年初至今一樣，獨力難支。

以債養債 壞帳如滾雪球
再 說，中國一直揚言要改革、去槓桿，但每當遇到經濟放緩，又是加槓桿來托底，對債務的依賴性愈來愈強。國際清算銀行最新季度報告顯示，中國信貸佔GDP比率 已高達25.4%，是全球主要經濟體中最高的，根據歷史，一旦比率超過10%，那麼在隨後三年，該國有三分之二的概率發生「嚴重的銀行業緊張情?」。不 過，中國信貸佔GDP比率長期達到15%左右，至今依然安然無恙，BIS的推斷似乎說服力一般。

當然，亦可能是中國極度幸運，10多年 來皆能持續出現另外三分之一不發生問題的情境，而實際上，只要銀行願意借新還舊、放鬆呆壞帳定義，問題也能一直掩蓋的。不過，當前中國企業債務壓力亦空前 龐大，據彭博新聞社統計，過去12個月內，滬市1003家非金融類上市公司合計債務增長18%至創紀錄的8683億元人民幣，增速為三年來最快；債務對股 本比升至123.1%的6年最高水平，未調節的平均比率更高達205.7 %，為至少10年來最高。同時約16%的滬市上市公司報虧，虧損公司數量是一年前的兩倍多。

企業債務加速增長，信貸佔GDP比率亦大幅躍升，卻又推動不了業績和GDP改善，背後原因顯然就是借新還舊、以債養債甚至以債養息。中央堅守剛兌，反而令呆壞帳雪球愈滾愈大，愈難解決，當企業負債水平突破某個水平(或許已破也說不定)更會返魂乏術。

只顧內鬥 結構問題難解決
外 憂如加息、出口疲弱問題不大，全球經濟皆會遇到，反而中央如何解決自身的結構性問題，才是重點所在。惟看看國企改革方案，似乎高層仍在忙於權鬥，高層與高 層、與既得利益者、與地方政府的博弈沒完沒了，結果才出了一個重點為防止國有資產流失的「改革」方案。中央始終未能給市場一個政策方向，市場起決定性作用 沒有了，「互聯網+」也不提了，傳統產業的頹勢、種下的負債禍根卻又剪不斷，究竟中國下一步走向何方，才是市場最關心的問題。
 

消息：上海自贸区白银交易中心或于明年二季度开业

FX168讯 据中国国内媒体周一(9月14日)报道，在上海自贸区首个白银现货交易平台获批后，中国白银集团预计，上海自贸区的白银交易中心——华通白银国际将于明年第二季度开业。

中国白银集团近年不断拓展业务，除上游的冶炼外，市场多关注零售的O2O业务如何发展，白银交易所作为一个大的项目，备受关注。

中国白银首席执行官宋建文接受采访时表示，希望公司未来能朝冶炼、O2O、交易所三个方面平衡发展。

宋建文估计，华通白银国际将会于明年第二季度开业，该交易所是全国最大的白银实货交易场，占总成交85%，共有270个会员，全由内地厂家或交易商买卖，外资不能涉及其中，唯有在自贸区的华通白银国际则是开放给内地及海外投资者参与。

此前有报道称，上海华通白银国际交易中心由上海华通铂银交易市场作为主要发起人组建。首批将上线的主要品种为国标一号白银，后续将推出铂、钯等更多品种。值得关注的是，所有品种将采用人民币定价，随着未来交易量的增长和仓储规模的扩大，有利于白银等战略金属留在中国境内，并有利于中国取得白银等贵金属的国际定价权。