金價下探 實物買盤入市

 正如 Lisa姐所講.....中國買金都買得好狠

現貨黃金最高觸及1,821.30美元/盎司，最低下探至1,761.94美元/盎司，收報1,807.00美元/盎司，上一交易日收報1,790.40美元/盎司，上漲16.60美元/盎司，漲幅0.92%。
亞洲尤其是來自中國的實物買盤大增，幫助金價企穩回升。
投資者擔心穆迪(Moody')在本週末下調意大利評級，避險買需仍然存在。
歐美股市全線上揚，部分資金撤離金市流入股市。
美國9月密歇根大學消費者信心指數初值為57.8，高於預期水平的56.5。
黃金經紀商Auramet交易部門副總裁Bruce Dunn表示，黃金在空頭回補盤的推動下走高，並且歐債危機並未遠去，金價還是會受到支撐。
南非標準銀行(Standard Bank)分析師Walter de Wet表示，“在過去幾周里，每次金價跌破1800美元後，亞洲地區的尤其是上海的實物買盤便會急劇增多。”

Eric Sprott：金價明年或觸及2,500美元

礦業周刊2011-09-16 16:16 作者簡介 打印


來源：礦業周刊（Mining Weekly）編譯: Kitco金拓中文網

多伦多（miningweekly.com）——斯普劳特资产管理公司（Sprott Asset Management）的首席执行官埃里克·斯普劳特（Eric Sprott）周四表示，金价明年可能会触及2,500美元/盎司的高位，而欧债危机目前的规模过大，很难处理。

他對礦業周刊網絡版（Mining Weekly Online）稱：“我肯定金價在一年之內會突破2,000美元，它可能會升至2,500美元。”
在被問及他如何看待金價的更長期走勢時，斯普勞特表示那取決於政府採取的貨幣政策。
他預計：“如果政府繼續無節制地印製鈔票，那金價的具體目標位就很難判斷。價格可能會觸及10,000美元/盎司，也可能會觸及20,000美元/盎司。”
週四早些時候，湯森路透GFMS(Thompson Reuters GFMS)表示，在強勁投資需求的推動下，金價到年底可能會突破2,000美元/盎司的大關。
雖然斯普勞特對金銀價格持看漲的態度，但他表示，一個潛在的威脅是，“週期性”商品的價格或會回撤，例如鐵礦石和銅，因為儘管目前市場疲軟，但這兩種商品的價格都維持在紀錄水平位附近。
他說：“看起來世界經濟增長現在正開始減速。”他表示，最近，全球最大的銅生產商智利國家銅公司（Codelco）宣布，因為市場動盪，其歐洲與美國的部分客戶已在本月早些時候取消了訂單。
先前，斯普勞特在多倫多資源投資會議（Toronto Resource Investment Conference）上講話時談到，歐洲的債務問題與銀行業的高槓桿率正威脅到全球的金融體系。
他說，歐洲人已經開始從銀行那裡取回資金，該大陸的擠兌跡象現已顯現。
斯普勞特在談及歐洲主權債務危機時表示：“這一問題過大，難以解決。”
雖然歐元區的領導人都堅稱希臘不會發生債務違約的情況，但分析人士預計這在未來幾周是一件不可避免之事。
並且，雖然歐洲現在處於水深火熱中，但斯普勞特也就美國銀行倒閉率的不斷上升做出了解釋。
儘管斯普勞特因看好黃金而為業內人士熟知（他將黃金稱作“終極貨幣”），但是他對銀價持有更加樂觀的態度。
當前的黃金/白銀價格比在45左右，而歷史均值只有16。
斯普勞特表示，他所在的公司發現投資者對白銀基金的興趣比對黃金基金的興趣更大。
他評論說：“人們正在用自己的錢包表達一個想法，即他們更願意將錢投入白銀，而非黃金。”
另外，週四早些時候，時事通訊撰稿人彼得·格蘭迪奇（Peter Grandich）在一個訪問中表示，黃金價格明年料會觸及2,350美元/盎司。
他對金價持樂觀態度的原因包括，央行已經變成黃金的淨買家，生產商幾乎已經完全取消了對沖合約，另外，黃金交易所交易基金的產生是“引燃這一牛市的單一最大原因”。
像美國這樣的國家不斷印製鈔票也是相信金價會走高的一個大因素。格蘭迪奇說，某些匿名的投資者一直在操縱這種貴金屬的價格並壓制它，而這也意味著金價最終會上升。

Position Limits back in play at the CFTC

Original Source

A few weeks ago I told my loyal readers that big news would be coming out of the CFTC back doors. Well, it looks like someone was turned again. This should NOT be shocking, silver longs can only one day HOPE justice is served, position limits are implemented, and we become wealthy beyond imagination. But not so fast. That would mean someone takes the hit (JP et al), and surely they will not just allow themselves to loose a few hundred billion overnight.

"The CFTC has already missed a deadline in the Dodd-Frank law to finalize position limits. Three of the five commissioners at the CFTC, including one Democrat, have expressed skepticism that position limits can prevent large run-ups in prices.

CFTC Chairman Gary Gensler had hoped to get the measure approved in September, but now it is expected to be pushed into early October."

Austria restricts gold purchase by individuals

 http://www.commodityonline.com

實金實銀有得買就好買啦.....澳地利新政策,規定個人買金限額......

 同時有見議在當地現金消費不得多過300EU....超過就用電子貨幣

 相信風暴已經....

VIENNA (Commodity Online): A newly enacted Gold policy in Austria that restricts the free purchase of gold by individuals may just be the start of a European policy shift that might border on infringing an individual’s financial freedom.

-As per the new Austrian policies, individuals who wish to purchase gold will be restricted to purchase only 15000 Euros worth of gold at a time making gold an officially “restricted” commodity.

Earlier, one had to just call the local Austrian bank about 2-4 days in advance and state the amount of Gold one wishes to purchase. But that has now been scrapped.

Although, the officials quote money laundering as the reason for the new polices, one but wonders if there isn’t more to it.

-Meanwhile, in Italy, top industrials and professionals have sent a letter to the government and parliament to ban all cash transactions above 300 Euros, and only permit electronic transfers!

金價過山車行情未結束

黃金市場未來數周將面臨更多劇烈波動，因好淡雙方圍繞金價走向僵持不下，投資者在每盎斯1800美元上方對黃金的信心開始動搖，決策者也在採取孤注一擲的措施來穩定經濟。

自瑞士央行上周意外決定把瑞郎與歐羅滙率掛鈎，黃金投資者經歷了一波大起大落的過山車式行情；過去數周，金價在數分鐘內急速漲跌50美元的走勢並不鮮見。 

或先調整逾百美元

「我認為，金價將走高，但不排除向下修正逾100美元的可能，尤其是在美元進一步走強的情況下。」丹麥Saxo Bank高級經理Ole Hansen說。

全球各地的金融市場都經歷着極端的價格波動，因投資者對歐羅區領導人解決區內債務危機的能力失去信心，而美國經濟指標則表明增長正陷於停頓，聯邦儲備局可用的政策工具不斷減少。這些問題已是老生常談，目前為止一直有利於黃金，推動金價在本月稍早觸及每盎斯1920美元上方的紀錄高位，但鑑於金價處在前所未見的高位，如此極端的不確定性正令投資者焦慮不安。

「如果你同意泡沫正在形成，那麼，你預計將看到金價的波動性還會大幅上升，並推動價格到達頂峰。」Natixis分析師Nic Brown說：「金融市場的運行就是這樣，它們在最終達到不可持續的高位前，走勢難免會變得愈發震盪。」

今年黃金的高低點價位相差逾600美元，從絕對差值來看，至少是1960年代以來最大，不過，金價32%的波動幅度仍低於1980年的42%，當時金價也曾突破紀錄。

黃金與股市的走勢已變得更趨正相關，意味着金價比以往更傾向於隨股市而動。更讓投資者擔心的是，黃金打破了與美元等資產的傳統關聯，這導致其下一步走勢更難預測，也正將黃金進一步推向目前很多人所說的泡沫區域。

任何市場上演急漲急跌行情，都會讓短線交易商感到激動，但多數投資者往往會焦慮不安，不敢大舉押注是漲還是跌，這樣就強化了成交淡靜與價格震盪加劇的惡性循環。

儘管這樣，再加上數輪獲利回吐，金價還是沒有崩盤，雖然波幅上升，但目前黃金沽盤規模甚至遠遠比不上第三季初的買盤。黃金持有成本增加，以及高波動率帶來更大風險，並沒嚇退買家，尤其是瑞士央行干預以後，瑞郎實際上已經從避險資產名單中剔除。

不論如何，在如今貨幣、商品和股市通通走勢反覆、難以尋獲明確方向的大環境下，黃金仍被視作投資佳選。但這並不是說，金價就不會出現驚心動魄的調整。

王sir教路

王SIR 2011研討會...會上提及來年要留意的版塊

Silver Beginning a Run-Up

文章中提及小弟經常思考的問題,就是80年代.銀價是受到享利兄弟,人為因素,而導致銀價上升到$50美元,如當時沒有人為因素,當時銀價會是多少? 


作者亦提到金銀比以1:25.........小弟覺得這比例比較理性和合理

Silver prices are once again enjoying a run-up as they did from January through April. During that period they doubled and briefly touched $50 an ounce before settling back down to the low $30s.


As I write, silver prices are back above $40 an ounce and that may be giving you the urge to sell. I would advise that you don’t. This recovery is for real, and it has much further to go.


While I have a price target of $50.00 by years end, I anticipate silver prices will peak at $150 an ounce in 18 months.


Central banks around the world are pushing lax monetary policies and this leads me to conclude that prices for all commodities (gold and silver in particular) will rise.


We've already seen this happen with gold hitting a record high $1,923.70 an ounce on Sept. 7 and when gold goes higher; its baby brother silver quickly follows.


That's reflected in something called the gold to silver ratio, which shows how many ounces of silver it takes to buy one ounce of gold. Traditionally, this ratio acts as a price barometer for the two precious metals. And if you look at it right now, it's easy to see that $150 silver isn't far off. Gold and silver prices traditionally move together because both are considered stores of value in inflationary times and while the world considers gold as the premier store of value, other societies, most notably the Spanish empire in the Americas, Imperial China and Mogul India, used the silver standard and are therefore more focused on silver when inflation threatens.


In the 19th century silver and gold prices maintained a fairly steady relationship to each other in a ratio of 16 to 1. This was due to the fact that both gold and silver were viewed as currency. However, in the 20th century silver depreciated against gold. This was due to the fact that silver began to be seen as a commodity that was mainly used in industrial applications. While the two metals are chemically very similar, but silver is much cheaper and therefore is more suitable for industrial uses.




By 2010, gold traded well above $1,000 an ounce while silver traded at $12-$14 an ounce or a ratio of close to 80 to 1. This was unsustainable, and it resulted in the price of silver rising in 2010-11. At its peak, silver was trading for $50 an ounce and about a 30 to 1 ratio to the price of gold.


Going forward, we cannot expect the gold/silver price ratio to reach 16 to 1, as it almost did in 1980.


I believe the reason for this is the use of silver as an industrial metal has fallen off sharply when the price spiked. That freed up silver supplies while investment demand for gold soared.


The second reason is that the 1980 silver price spike was caused by the Hunt Brothers' attempt to corner the silver market. No such attempt is visible today.

So, I believe the peak ratio of silver to gold is much more likely to reach something closer to 25 to 1.

The peak in gold is yet unknown, but for supply/demand reasons it seems likely to be above $2,500 an ounce - today's equivalent of the 1980 peak, adjusted for inflation - but less than $5,000 an ounce - the 1980 peak adjusted for growth in world gross domestic product (GDP) or money supply.


That would suggest a silver price peak between $100 and $200 per ounce, with $150 an ounce the most likely outcome.


In conclusion, the market will not ultimately turn bearish until global monetary policy tightens. With the November 2012 U.S. Presidential election looming large on the horizon, we probably have at least another year of rising prices. However, we may not have two years to wait for politicians decide to get our fiscal house in order.


My recommendation would be to any silver holdings at least until prices reached $150 an ounce.

Original Source