宋鴻兵：外匯儲備太多應該購買實物黃金

2011-10-21 08:38:56   来源：新浪财经

《貨幣戰爭》作者宋鴻兵10月20日在微博上稱央行上半年央行增持貨幣黃金27億元，應該是金價上漲所造成的被動結果，而不是央行主動增加了實物黃金儲備。他建議用外匯儲備買實物黃金。
宋鴻兵稱：“截至2011年6月末，央行的黃金儲備約為508億美元。上半年央行增持貨幣黃金27億元。俺估計所謂'貨幣黃金增持'，應該是金價上漲的效應，而不是央行真的增加了實物黃金儲備。不理解為什麼有人一方面說外匯儲備太多，全世界的黃金都被中國買下也花不完，但同時卻是一盎司實物黃金也不買呢”
根據數據顯示，9月中國外匯儲備達到創紀錄的3.2萬億美元，而央行黃金儲備僅為3389萬盎司，按現價計算，黃金儲備佔整體外匯儲備的比例不到2%，如果中國想把該比例提高至5%，中國央行需要購買6000萬盎司或1900噸黃金，這相當於9個月的全球礦業產出，或5年半的中國黃金產出。
德國商業銀行指出，即使中國打算將黃金儲備提高到佔外儲比例的5%，這仍是相對低位，中國央行可能會在未來數年繼續增加黃金儲備，中國將越來越依賴黃金進口，儘管該國國內黃金產出上升。
不過也有業內人士表示，近期增持黃金的多是新興國家，而實際上黃金定價權並不掌握在這些國家手中。因此盲目增持黃金也不是明智之舉。就算中國真的打算增持黃金，也應該採取“悄悄的進村，打槍的不要”的方式，而非公開增持。近些年中國在國際市場上，買什麼什麼漲價的怪圈就是前車之鑑。

Silver Bear Market Ends

Posted by Brittany Stepniak - Thursday, October 20th, 2011

Silver has outperformed all other precious metals this year, all while experiencing some wild volatility throughout: between losses of 2.8 percent and gains greater than 104 percent.

And, apparently, it's still got a lot of climbing to do...

Based on predictions regarding the future of developing economies and the seemingly never-ending European debt crisis, silver has a strong potential to rebound from a bear market. 

By the final quarter of 2012, silver will likely average around a record-breaking $42 per ounce – at least according Bloomberg's median value produced from a group of 11 surveyed analysts. 

When this happens, silver producers Fresnill Plc (FRES) and Pan American Silver Corp. (PAA) will achieve record-high profits.

This year alone, Pan American Silver will see $347.8 million in profits– more than double the $112.6 million the received in profit last year. Imagine what that exponential rate of profit-increase will look like when silver soars to record-highs...

From Bloomberg:

China, the biggest emerging-market user, is expanding at more than five times the speed of the U.S., driving consumption of the precious metal most used in industry. Demand is also coming from investors looking for an alternative to cash and gold, which costs about 50 times more than silver. The 30-week correlation coefficient between the two metals is now at 0.82, from as low as 0.47 in 2005, data compiled by Bloomberg show, with a figure of 1 meaning the two move in lockstep.

“Prices now look relatively cheap to where they have been recently,” said David Wilson, an analyst at Societe Generale SA in London and the most accurate silver forecaster tracked by Bloomberg in the two years through June. “The backdrop is still very supportive for gold and we think that silver will leverage off the back of that. Emerging markets are going to be important for demand for sure.”

Silver demand is here to stay.

Why?

Simple: it's extremely multi-functional and used for a variety of purposes; coveted for its aesthetic beauty as well as its practical endeavors. These two qualities alone make it a top-seller in jewelry stores as well as an important commodity in construction and energy sectors. As the use of solar panels is transforming and dominating the energy market – with silver as a primary component in panels and film – silver demand has no where to go but up.

On account of these combined factors, overall silver gains this year are hovering right around 34 percent. Gold isn't trailing far behind with gains right settling right at 24 percent. Platinum and palladium (amongst other metals) are the same fast-track to highest-ever annual averages.

Without any lasting solutions for the debt crisis, silver will continue to be of interest, especially to “newly industrialized countries.”

紫金產量已到高峰

EJ Insight.com

據《上海證券報》報道，為解決短期資金需求，紫金礦業（2899）將進軍「融資性黃金租賃業務」，2011年黃金租賃額度不超過10公噸，並根據資金需求情況及市場動態分批實施，租賃期限不超過一年。

在國際市場以至中國內地，黃金租賃都不是新鮮事物，內地幾乎所有銀行，都有從事相關融資業務，可見競爭激烈。一年期倫敦銀行同業拆放利率（Libor），過去半年抽高超過100點子，至0.9厘以上，據倫敦黃金協會在官方網站公布的黃金出借利率（Gold Forward Offered Rates），一年期利息亦不超過0.5厘，可見黃金租賃未必可能為紫金帶來有意義的「短期資金需求」，反而更似是一個追求短線投機回報的舉動。 

內地銀行的黃金租賃業務，主要目標為一般用金公司，例如黃金產品加工企業。黃金格價近數月大幅波動，一個重要因素正是黃金租賃活動，令一種本應放在銀行保險箱的貴金屬，有條件變成套息交易（Carry Trade）的工具之一。

黃金租賃 不務正業

任何一間實幹型的上市企業，都不會希望涉及主業的商品價格出現大幅波動。

新地（016）不會炒賣公司旗下的任宅單位，中石油（857）亦毋須借出原油予炒家作買賣套戥，紫金的黃金租賃服務對象為金融機構的融資活動，變相打正招牌助長黃金炒賣活動，作為一間以產銷黃金為主業的採礦公司，相關舉動可視為「不務正業」。

產金公司為金融機構提供黃金租賃服務，少數可以理解的好處，就是可以掌握炒家活動及數據，有助了解黃金價格的走勢，從而製訂更有效率的產銷計劃。

紫金2003年在香港上市，其後多年黃金產量，幾乎保持每年增長，直至上個財政年度，黃金產量罕有出現下跌，按年減少8.4%，至6.9萬千克，至6月止半年，黃金產量進一步下跌8.1%，至3.3萬千克，紫金預留10公噸黃金租賃額度解決「短期資金融求」，可能對公司黃金銷量購成更大影響，亦難免令人擔心，這號稱「中國第一金企」的礦業公司，黃金產量已到高峰開始走下坡。

人民币黄金首日推交收逾亿 金贸场研半年后推人民币银条

　   金银业贸易场昨日正式推出全球首个离岸市场、以人民币计价黄金现货交易产品。新产品名为“人民币公斤条黄金”，首个交易日交收量为332公斤，结算价为每克346.95元人民币，交收总额约1.11亿元人民币。金贸场又预期“人民币公斤条黄金”成熟需半年，其后考虑推出人民币计价之银条产品买卖。  

 　　金银业贸易场理事长张德熙昨日表示，“人民币公斤条黄金”有助活化人民币发展，吸引更多外国与本地参与商进行买卖，预期短期内公斤条成交总额每日为1亿至3亿元人民币。 

　　张德熙又希望短期内能提升公斤条交投总额占整体黄金产品5%至10%，未来能更进一步升至30%。他认为，现时全球经济不稳，同时随着人民币国际化，黄金可作双重避险。该行预期，除内地及国际性投资者，产品亦可吸引散户。而散户如要参与，先要入会登记，初步预计散户将占公斤条整体投资量约40%至60%。 

　　首批参与商共27间 

　　“人民币公斤条黄金”的金条规格与上海黄金交易所划一，是金贸场认可炼铸商生产的9999成色公斤条，可透过贸易场电子交易系统交易。首批参与商共27间，机构性或一般投资者只须透过金贸场行员开设户口，便可进行买卖，每一公斤持仓按金暂定为1.6万元人民币，将根据市况调整；交易时间为早上8时至翌日凌晨3点半，可选择以人民币黄金合约或实金交割为最终结算方法。此外，为维持基本流通量，还设有流通量提供商制度。永亨银行(302)和中银香港(2388)为产品的结算银行。 

　　料金价将挑战2000美元 

　　张德熙估计“人民币公斤条黄金”成熟需时半年，因此，半年后考虑推出人民币计价之银条产品买卖。早前国际金价升至每盎司1900美元水平后调整，张德熙预料短期内，金价会于1500至1700美元水平整固。当整固期过后，黄金将再进入牛市第一期，他预计金价或能于明年首季挑战2000美元。 

　　首批“人民币公斤条黄金”供应商之一，第一亚洲商人金银业公司合伙人陈锦荣认为，未来应会有更多供应商申请AA牌照，因由起初只有8间到最后有27间，可见，市场对人民币金条产品需求甚大。陈锦荣表示，已经有不少客人查询并有兴趣购入此产品，他又指现时往往是求多于供，并预期年底金价有望上升至每盎司2000美元水平。 

Last Chance to Own Silver at These Prices

Posted by Wealth Wire - Thursday, October 20th, 2011

The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (The Cartel) on Tuesday approved a much-debated, long-delayed rule designed to curb bets on oil, gold, sugar and in particular silver.
CFTC Chairman Gary Gensler said the limits will protect the markets. The 3-2 vote—cast along party lines—illustrates how divided regulators remain over the role of government in the markets. The debate leading up to the vote also shows how even some CFTC commissioners supporting the rule think it may not have the desired effect.
Opposed by Wall Street and in particular JP Morgan Bank the rule aimed at capping the positions firms can take in certain commodity contracts in order to curb sharp price increases. The rule gained traction in Congress during a silver price spike in 2011, which some attributed to excessive speculation by short-term traders. Along with a number of other rules, it was mandated by the Dodd-Frank financial-regulatory overhaul.
So finally position limits in silver will be enforced. Will there be delays? Of course and you can bet your bottom dollar that the Cartel will be out in force with their lawyers challenging the ruling. However, there is a very high probability that on a beautiful day in 2012, JPM, et al will finally be feed of its shackles and the price of silver will move dramatically higher.
Don’t think this will happen smoothly. Beginning today, all bets are off. As of last Tuesday’s Commitment of Traders survey, the commercial short position in silver was 58,000 contracts. At 58,000 contracts the speculation is that the short position is still between 15,000 and 20,000 contracts. Clearly, they have a lot of work to do to bring themselves into compliance.
As you are aware if they go blindly covering short positions they will drive the price of silver higher and higher and create steeper and steeper losses. They are going to want to continue to inspire more and more selling at lower prices in order to cover their shorts.
JP Morgan need to force silver lower in the days and weeks ahead otherwise they will be in the position of covering thousands of contracts at steep losses. The question is how do they get people to sell? The answer is simple. Let the CME do the dirty work.
Remember the CME only raises margins in response to volatility. If the Cartel can create enough volatility the CME will be forced to act.
So the answer is simple:

1. Violently manipulate silver to create unprecedented volatility.
   
2. Have the CME raise margin rates again in response to this volatility.
   
3. Use dips I price to quickly cover short positions.
   
4. If Cartel buying spikes price back up, this added volatility will force additional margin hikes.
   

Eventually two will have been accomplished:

1. JP Morgan will have extricated themselves from the short position and brought themselves into compliance with the position limits today.
   
2. To help avoid a subsequent run on the CME – owned COMEX, margins will have been increased so significantly during the process the COMEX will have made the leverage will have dropped 3 to 1. This will have made the COMEX a physical only exchange. Making the COMEX a physical only exchange will preserve the viability of the exchange and limit future liability of the CME Group.
   

Now here is what you have to do:

1. Don’t get caught up in the wild volatility, emotion and disinformation of the next three to six months. When the silver you bought for $36.00 is now $22.00 keep in mind that this is a plan that will pay off handsomely in the end. You must have faith and confidence that you are right and will prevail in the end.
   
2. Set up a disciplined, regular physical purchase plan. You should make it a priority to buy some physical silver every week until the limits are finally enacted.
   
3. Because silver will become a physical, spot priced market, you can rightfully expect significant price increases in 2012. Unencumbered by suppression, their will begin to be true price discovery. Does this mean that gold and silver will finally revert to 16or 12 to 1? Yes, it probably does. When will it happen? There are too many variables to hazard a guess but the day is coming. Please see the chart below (click to enlarge).
   

In conclusion, steel yourself for the tremendous volatility that is coming and use every advantage to buy on dips. This may be the last chance for you to own silver at these prices. If holding physical silver is a logistical problem buy PSLV for silver and PHYS for gold.

凡所有相，皆是虛妄

過去兩周全球主要股市由低位大幅反彈，主要是市場信心及投資情緒轉趨樂觀所致。不過，歐元區債務問題複雜，投資者不應期望短期可訂出一個全面性的最終解決方案；歐美經濟疲弱亦需要較長時間才能恢復動力。

由於基本因素短期難以改變，市場的起落多受情緒主導。投資者失望時便恐慌，拖累股市急挫，相反，期望時便貪婪，帶動股市回升。由於市場情緒善變，不易捉摸，投資者難免隨市況時喜時悲，感到難以適從。

面對變幻莫測的市況，順勢而行談何容易，此時對投資者最重要的，反而是發展自己的覺性（覺悟的能力）。筆者近年特別為公司每一期投資季刊設計一幅圖畫，旨在刺激投資者思考箇中含意。

 

今期（第四季）封面描繪的就是一隻牛及一隻熊被困迷宮內，感到迷惘徬徨的景象。在一些與投資者的聚會上，筆者曾要求參加者猜牛或熊誰會先逃離迷宮。當然，答案牛熊皆有。

答案是「牛」者，反映其傾向進取樂觀，筆者就會順帶提醒一句，留意熊市的兇險，以及持盈保泰的重要性。答案是「熊」者，則反映其較保守悲觀，容易錯過熊市時的尋寶機會。

凡所有相，皆是虛妄

不過，大多數投資者即使聽過筆者的溫馨忠告後，仍會執著於「牛」或「熊」誰先逃離迷宮的問題上。其實，筆者最希望大家能領悟的是《金剛經》所說「凡所有相，皆是虛妄」。

「牛」、「熊」、「迷宮」都是假名。若不執著於牛、熊名相概念，迷宮自然也不存在，就沒有「被困」及「解脫」的差異。正如六祖慧能的名偈「菩提本無樹，明鏡亦非台，本來無一物，何處惹塵埃？」所開示的就是這無所執著的自由心境。

禪宗也有喻意相近的一個公案「瓶中取鵝」。唐朝高官陸亘曾問南泉禪師︰「古人瓶中養一鵝，鵝漸長大，出瓶不得。如今不得毀瓶，不得損鵝，怎樣才 能把鵝從瓶中取出？」南泉禪師突然叫喚︰「陸亘大夫！」陸亘應聲回答︰「在！」南泉禪師笑著說︰「出來了！」陸亘即時茅塞頓開。當妄執除掉，便能明心見 性，心靈便獲得解脫，「鵝」自然從瓶中出來了！

外離相為禪，內不亂為定

上文曾提及禪修，打坐冥想只是其中一種方法，目的是去培育禪定與智慧。如六祖所言「外離相為禪，內不亂為定」。又如虛雲禪師所言︰「覺即不迷，即是慧；照即不亂，即是定」。禪定與智慧是一體兩面，由定生慧，而由慧生定，相輔相成。

另外，禪修亦可透過參話頭如「念佛是誰？誰在念佛？」或參公案如「南泉斬貓」、「懷讓磨鏡」等去令參者產生疑情，然後從打破以語言及概念來運作 的習慣思維方式，而達至「轉識成智」的開悟，所謂「不疑不悟，小疑小悟，大疑大悟。」其實生活的種種逆境及挫折都可看成是禪機，開啟智慧寶庫的鑰匙。

總括而言，禪修是一種自覺自悟，自力解脫的方法。佛家是強調智信，不盲目信從權威，要靠個人的努力去完善及跨越自己。這些法則均可應用在投資上。對筆者而言，投資市場是生活的縮影，也看成為股海道場。

加拿大道明證券：白銀不再是“窮人的黃金”

加拿大道明證券(TDSecurities)商品策略主管BartMelek指出，白銀“窮人的黃金”這一身份正在消失。在5月和9月兩次遭遇滑鐵盧後，投資者將不會視白銀為對沖市場和系統性風險的良好工具。
道明證券預計2011年白銀均價為36.11美元/盎司，2012年為39美元/盎司，2013年為30美元/盎司。當黃金於9月初創下1920美元上方的紀錄新高時，白銀的表現令人失望。且在9月貴金屬進行調整時，白銀跌勢最為慘重。
Melek指出，在過去12個月，白銀價格的隱含波動率超出黃金約127%。極具動蕩的走勢意味著投資組合經理和個人投資者可能不願以2011年4月之前的大手筆配置白銀。
白銀4月時升至近50美元的高位，但隨後在5月時大跌至32美元，並在夏季中期時回升至約45美元，但9月晚些時候再度大跌至26美元。
Melek認為，交易保證金比例上升，波動性大，投資者兌現以及供應盈餘上升是導致白銀價格調整的主要原因。
道明證券稱，非商業買盤減倉，白銀未來兩年礦產供應料增加約9%，工業需求預期將顯著下降，今明兩年出現供應赤字的可能性越來越低。該機構預計，2011年白銀市場供應盈餘5500萬盎司，2012年盈餘1900萬盎司，2013年盈餘6400萬盎司。
不過，若需求上升，或者礦產產出減少，那麼白銀未來幾個月有望走高，而若黃金價格開始走高則尤其如此。道明證券預計，明年黃金將急劇上漲，這是因為在一些系統性風險消除後，來自中國和印度的買盤將再度湧現。