轉載▼
世界衰退，有人一廂情願以為新興救地球，豈料美元升、美股升，美國笑到最後。
以
為美元升就除債價外什麼都跌？對，但僅對了一半。每逢美元相對其他貨幣升，美股相對其他股市都升(即MSCI美股指數除以MSCI世界股指的比例上升)。
還有，這已沒有彙率因素，並是1972年有紀錄以來皆准(只是拼圖則要2008年起才重迭)。故要long-short的話，逢美彙升，long美股
short其他股，反之亦然，應是可靠策略。
但自2010年第四季起，美股的相對表現顯然拋離美元的相對表現，多少反映這段升市不單單是資金流入般簡單。是因2010年第四季推QE2嗎？但為何QE1無此象？
今晚想想吧，明天開估。
張庭賓
投資者之所以高度關注QE3，是因為它將是黃金、商品和股市新一輪牛市號角。不過，這個號角，很可能是被德國人吹響的！
如果說有個現代金融版的“狼來了”的故事，那麼就是QE3。
自從2011年6月QE2結束之後，市場上喊“狼來了”的聲音此起彼伏，結果喊出來了2011年9月份的扭轉操作、2012年6月份的繼續扭轉操作。讓市場的預期屢屢落空。
這一次再喊狼來了的是有號稱“美聯儲通訊社”之稱的喬恩.希爾森特拉(JonHilsenrath)，他7月24日在《華爾街日報》發文稱，“美聯儲官員由於對經濟增長停滯和失業率居高不下失去耐心，將進一步採取新的措施以刺激經濟和提振就業。”讓憧憬QE3的市場情緒再起，雖然他在6月7日已經喊過一次“狼來了”，被市場證明是大話，但這並不影響此次市場聞風而動——歐元、美股、石油上漲，特別是黃金當天上漲1.83%。
那麼，美聯儲在下週（7月31日和8月1日）的會議上還是在9月份決定呢？到底是什麼會觸髮美聯儲的正式決定呢？這是一個參悟美聯儲價值立場和決策機制的高難度挑戰。
自今年年初以來，雖然QE3狼來了之聲不絕，但本人一直判斷不太可能，比如5月15日撰文《歐元面臨新一輪風暴QE3短期推出概率大減》；6月19日的《 “歐元美元拳擊賽”打到決勝時分》指出：6月19日美聯儲會議上推QE3概率較低。對於此次“美聯儲通訊社”的喊話，我認為，下周美聯儲推QE3的概率很小，9月份推QE3的可能性超過50%。
為何如此判斷呢？大多數分析者的判斷依據是，如果美國經濟復甦乏力，經濟再滑向衰退，或者失業率再升，則美聯儲為救經濟推QE3。如果按此標準，最新的美國二季度GDP為1.5%，似乎加大了美聯儲推QE3的可能。
然而，這種判斷標准其實是錯誤的，或者說至少是簡單化的。促就業推增長這是奧巴馬總統最關心的，但並不是伯南克和美聯儲最關心的。
美聯儲最關心什麼呢？維護美元金融系統的安全和穩定，捍衛美元核心地位，打擊美元的競爭對手。現在對於美元貨幣金融體系能構成致命威脅的是利率和外匯衍生品泡沫的破滅，其要害是壓制美國十年期國債收益率，維持相對強勢美元。而要達成這一目標，必須保持相對偏緊的流動性，對歐元區債務危機推波助瀾，打擊歐元。促使更多的國際熱錢流出歐洲買入美國債券。
對此，今年以來，美元勢力做的非常成功，近期美國十年期國債收益率降低到了聳人聽聞的1.42%！與此同時，西班牙主權債、銀行和地方政府債務危機全面爆發，意大利危機四伏，這正是美元對歐元發動總攻，爭取徹底打垮歐元，一舉解決其自1999年以來對美元挑戰的最緊要關頭。此刻推出QE3，無疑於“農夫救蛇”，這種事中國人會幹，但美聯儲絕對不會幹。故此，下周美聯儲會議推QE3的概率很低。
可為什麼9月份美聯儲推QE3概率有較高呢？ ……
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張庭賓
一面人口增長，肉食激增；另一面土地銳減，水利失修，中國農產品對外依賴越來越高，美國等國生物能源政策力推汽車與人爭糧。若中國不痛下決心，扭轉被動局面，一場嚴重的飢荒難免在不久的將來等著我們！
中國糧食安全再度面臨嚴峻挑戰。
自6月初以來，以美國大旱為導火索，國際糧價再度暴漲，其中美玉米、大豆指數均已突破了2008年的歷史高點，分別創下了每蒲式耳806.3和1646.5美分的新高；從技術線上來看，在短期調整後，仍有繼續上沖的空間。
然而，若以黃金標價，糧食價格遠未創出新高，現在（2012年7月27日收盤）的玉米價格比2000年初貶值了33%，美麥貶值了38.2%，而美豆更是貶值了41.98%。這個價格顯然是低於糧食的實際價值的，其原因是各國政府為控制通脹而壓制糧價的結果。即糧食供給隱患的危險程度遠高於其價格表現。
全球糧食庫存消費比明顯下降
自2000年以來，由於受到三個因素影響——全球人均糧食消費量；全球人口總量；生物能源消費劇增加大了對糧食的需求，全球糧食供給壓力越來越大。
——伴隨著工業化和城市化，人均糧食消費量呈台階式增長。以印度為代表的農耕經濟，其人均糧食消費約為200—300公斤/年；以中國為代表的由農耕經濟向工業化城市化轉型進程中的，約為400—600公斤/年；歐盟等工業化、城市化成熟期的，約為600—900公斤/年；美國在2005年通過立法確立大規模生物能源政策導向後，人均糧食消費水平向人均1000公斤/年的方向發展。即隨著社會形態從農耕經濟走向工業化、城市化和社會結構分化過渡的經濟，以及高度成熟的經濟體，其人均糧食消費量呈現出遞增和倍數關係。
截至2011年10月底，全球人口已突破70億大關，過量的人口負擔也加大了全球糧食總需求。
——生物能源等間接形式的糧食消費大增。進入新千年後，隨著生物能源需求大增，大量的糧食被用來生產生物燃料。
一方面是糧食需求快速增長，而糧食供給增速放緩，致使全球糧食庫存消費比呈現明顯的下滑趨勢，見圖1。
中國糧食自給自足局面已支離破碎
與全球日益嚴重的供需關係相比，中國國內供需失衡惡化的更快更為嚴重。
過去二、三十年來，中國優先大力發展工業化和城市化，大量侵蝕良田，污染水資源。 18億畝的農田紅線岌岌可危，由於長期輕視水利，水利年久失修，一些地區的水資源枯竭，水土保持不力，自然災害特別容易造成糧食減產。
除了人口的自然剛性增長外，中國的飲食習慣跟隨西方生活方式，對肉食消費劇增，這對糧食需求產生了乘數放大效應，從1986年中國的人均肉類消費量為每年35公斤增至2010年的60公斤（韓國37公斤）。每生產1公斤牛肉要消耗8公斤左右的糧食，生產1公斤豬肉要消耗3-5公斤糧食。中國用於家畜飼料的糧食從1980年的6800萬噸增至2009年的1.2億噸，增加了近一倍，相當於2010年糧食總產量的25%。
中國從1995年開始轉向大豆淨進口國；從2009年中國由玉米淨出口國轉變為進口國，2010和2011年中國玉米進口劇增，2012年1-5月累計進口量已經超過2011年整年根據美國農業部數據，預計2012年度中國大豆進口量佔國內消費量的80%，預計白糖進口量佔國內消費的17%，而中國棉花在2011年度進口量佔國內消費達到56%。國際金融主力經常以“中國需求”為炒作因素，推升農產品價格，加大其波動性。
目前全球生物能源的總產量約800億升，主要生產國是美國、巴西、歐盟及加拿大，佔全球生物能源總產量的90%以上。根據聯合國糧農組織預計，2015年全球生物能源的總產量將達到1200億升。
美國於2002年開始大規模發展生物能源，到2010年其燃料乙醇消耗的玉米達1.28億噸，相當於全球玉米產量的25%。目前，美國玉米工業消費佔比達到了50%，而且將繼續攀升——美國2007年出台的《能源獨立和安全法》規定，到2022年前，要求國內汽車中加入360億加侖的生物質燃料，其中主要是乙醇。
，這都加劇了全球食糖與植物油市場的波動。若不計燃料乙醇所消耗的玉米，全球穀物消費年均增長只有1.1%，已低於同期1.2%的人口增長水平。
隨著原油價格的不斷攀升，生物能源生產和使用逐步受到全世界的關注，尤其是農產品重要出口國（美國）充分利用這次機會達到“糧食綁定能源”的戰略目標。 1，美國通過推高農產品價格尤其是玉米的價格，使得玉米價格追隨原油價格同步上漲，從而達到對沖原油價格上漲的風險。 2，大力倡導和擴張生物能源的生產和使用，減少對中東石油的依賴。
這必將使中國在未來的糧食安全更加被動，中國必須痛下決心，嚴厲制止亂占耕地，興修水利，增加農業投入；同時必須改變國人飲食結構，降低肉食品消費量，否則，一場嚴重的飢荒難免在不久的將來等著我們！
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《選股情報》美儲局自周二(３１日)起的議息會於今日(１日)完結，會於美國東岸時間
下午２：１５開記者招待會，簡介議會情況及救市新招，如果聯儲局冇料到，金融市場即死俾你
睇，但聯儲局又總不能在周四(２日)歐央行會議及周五(３日)的就業數據前就大膽行動，如
站錯邊就瘀到痺，因此最佳武器仍是「口水」一於有Ｔａｌｋ話Ｄｏ。
美儲局有扭曲操作：沽短(債)買長(債)，但到今年底美儲局的短債也會沽得七七八八，
屆時美儲局無短可沽自然會無長可買。
一個可行解決方法是效法歐央行，美銀行找出些抵押品，向美儲局借入群行資金，為期３至
５年，以為市場提供更多的流動資金，由於美儲局今時連垃圾資產都可作抵押品，應很難再找出
垃圾過垃圾的抵押品出來作抵押，一方掩耳盜鈴方法是：銀行可以拿他們的ｌｏａｎｂｏｏｋ
(借貸)來作抵押，此即一如出口信用局以廠家的應收未收帳，ＬＣ、ＤＡ之類作借貸一樣，總
之，千方百計讓美儲局可以作低息借貸便是。
今日《經濟通》編輯要筆者找股來講。認真難，因為今日市應回些，但在大跌市中，總有些
股會跌過頭，尤其是今周四歐央行使市場失望時，跌過頭之後就會回彈，叫修復行情，今日筆者
在《晴報》有文談此。
今時有修復行情的，是一眾內銀股，尤以建行(００９３９)(滬：６０１９３９)和工行
(０１３９８)(滬：６０１３９８)走勢尤為可人，可望在現水平(建行５﹒２元、工行
４﹒４元)有１０％左右升幅。至於筆者一直推介的中移動(００９４１)，雖然今年底可望近
紅底，但今時９０元邊也應先食糊，待回下至８６╱８５元始再吸；至於筆者另隻推介股昆侖能
源(００１３５)，要看今周能否升上１３元，如仍是在１２﹒５元邊鬼混就走貨；中石油
(００８５７)(滬：６０１８５７)在１０╱１０﹒５元關前應有阻力，到位可先賺一賺，之
後再諗。
謹聲明，以上股不是無風險，尤其是美儲局和歐央行不給力，就市冇力，歐央行可以怎給力
，請看今日筆者在《經濟日報》文，中國的六招撐經濟都是舊料，筆者明天在《經濟日報》談。
再聲明，投資要自己思考，賺了錢是你英明神武，蝕了錢請自己總結經驗。
《香港經濟日報研究部主管石鏡泉》
By Alf Field
Dear CIGAs,
There are no certainties in the investment universe. Investors are forced to weigh up the various risks and assess the probabilities involved before committing themselves to a course of action. Current Elliott Wave and technical studies suggest that the probabilities now favor a strong rise in the gold price.
It may be helpful to consider my personal assessment of the various probabilities at different points in the recent gold market correction. On 23 August 2011 when gold pushed above $1910 my guess was that there was a 90% probability of a severe correction. The target for the decline, as given in my keynote speech at the Sydney Gold Symposium in November, was circa $1480, the point at which the explosive extension in the gold price had started.
Extensions have a good record of retracing to the approximate point from which the extension began, in this case $1480. Market action during the decline is used to fine tune a more accurate end of the correction. Gold never got down to target of $1480, stopping not very far away at $1523 in late December 2011. At $1523 all the minor subdivisions suggested that there was a 75% probability that this was the low and that the market would move into a strong upward move, probably the most vigorous of the bull market. A lesser alternative considered was that $1523 might only be the A wave of a larger A-B-C correction.
Subsequent events proved that the lesser alternative - that $1523 was only the low point of the A wave - proved to be the correct diagnosis. The A-B-C correction is shown in the above chart.
The upward move from $1523 through January and February 2012 to $1792, a gain of $270 in just 2 months, looked exactly like the vigorous upward move that had been anticipated. From $1792 a correction in the 6%-8% range was expected. That meant a maximum retracement to $1650 could be tolerated. A decline below $1650 would indicate that something was wrong with the analysis and would necessitate examining alternative possibilities.
Gold did drop below $1650, throwing a spanner in the works of the expectation that the market was in the early stages of the massive third of a third wave with a target of $4500. Once the 61.8% retracement level at $1626 was also broken, the strongest probability was that the rise to $1792 was the B wave and that the market was declining in the C wave. At this stage it began to look as if gold might still achieve the original downside objective of $1480.
The decline halted at $1528 and then started rising in a desultory fashion. The above chart was produced at that time showing that the A wave decline had lasted 88 trading days while the C wave decline had lasted 55 days. In addition the C wave decline of $264 was 66.5% of the A wave decline of $397, as depicted on the chart. The 2/3 relationship between the A and C wave declines plus the ratio of 88 days to 55 days absorbed by the respective waves, a neat 8:5 Fibonacci ratio, improved the odds that $1528 was the end of wave C. It would thus also mark the final end of the correction that had lasted since late August 2011.
The above positive assessment was not published at the time. Additional confirmation from further market action was required to be sure of the call. The required evidence of a rapid and large upward surge in the gold price plus the break of the prominent downtrend did not emerge. Gold simply churned within a relatively narrow range below the declining trend line.
A number of readers have urged me to pay more attention to time. In the past I had found that the magnitude of the waves was a much more important factor than the time involved. I had never been able to make an accurate call using only time elements and cycles. Every time I made a forecast based on time, I got it wrong. Nevertheless, I resolved to examine the time elapsed by the different moves more closely.
That gave rise to recognizing that the 88 and 55 days absorbed by the A and C wave declines respectively was the interesting Fibonacci ratio of 8:5. With the gold market churning and going nowhere, I developed an alternative theory that $1528 was not the final low point of wave C but only the low point of wave a of an a-b-c move making up the C wave.
That would explain the desultory sideways trading in the gold price and implied that the final low was still somewhere in the future. An extension of this theory was that the decline in the smaller and final wave c to the low would last 33 trading days. This would extend the previous 88:55 ratio to 88:55:33, and would mean that the time absorbed by the two small c wave declines would total 88 days (55 +33), identical to the 88 days absorbed by the wave A decline.
This was pure hypothesis. There was no real basis for this theory, but it seemed worth testing it. If it was possible to predict the day of the final low ahead of time, that would be a significant achievement. Gold had rallied to $1640 on 6 June 2012 and then started churning sideways with a downward trend.
Projecting ahead 33 trading days from 6 June 2012 produced a date for the forthcoming low of 23 July 2012. I didn't have any idea of what the low price would be. The chart below depicts what happened on 23 July 2012.
The low gold price on 23 July 2012 was $1564, certainly not a new low. Yet the gold price started rising almost immediately. Within a couple of days the gold price had broken upwards through the downtrend line that had been in place since the end of February 2012. This is a very positive development which will be greatly enhanced if the gold price continues to move strongly upwards over the coming days and weeks.
The bottom line is that we now have a really strong probability that the correction which started at $1913 on 23 August 2011 has been completed both in terms of Elliott waves and also in terms of time elapsed. If this is correct, the gold price should soon be expressing itself in violent upside action as it moves into the third of third wave which is still targeted to reach $4500.
Alf Field - 31 July 2012
Disclosure and Disclaimer Statement: The author has personal investments in gold and silver bullion, as well as in gold, silver, uranium and other mining shares. The author's objective in writing this article is to interest potential investors in this subject to the point where they are encouraged to conduct their own further diligent research. Neither the information nor the opinions expressed should be construed as a solicitation to buy or sell any stock, currency or commodity. Investors are recommended to obtain the advice of a qualified investment advisor before entering into any transactions. The author has neither been paid nor received any other inducement to write this article
