2015年2月8日星期日
人均GDP超1萬美元你拖了多少後腿你真的很富有嗎?
人均GDP跨越1萬美元,聽上去的確很“高大上”。然而,對老百姓意味著什麼?你是否真的很富有了?個別指標達到中等發達國家水平
專家認為,人均GDP即人均國內生產總值,是經濟學中衡量經濟發展狀況的重要指標,也是衡量人民生活水平的一個重要標準。
統計顯示,2014年廣東實現GDP6.78萬億元,按平均匯率折算的人均GDP為10330美元。同年,福建省人均GDP也達到10376美元。
此前,京、津、滬、浙江、江蘇、內蒙古六個省、自治區和直轄市的人均GDP均超過1萬美元。
廣州市社科院研究員彭澎表示,從經濟學概念上看,人均GDP超過1萬美元標誌著一個國家或地區的發展進入了一個新的發展階段。按照世界銀行不同階段的收入標準,人均GDP達到1萬美元後,標誌著一國或地區的經濟社會發展開始進入“發達狀態”。
據分析,如果把廣東作為一個經濟體參與排位,目前廣東人均GDP大約排在世界各經濟體第65位。 “這表明廣東經濟社會發展個別指標已達到中等發達國家水平。”彭澎說。
綜合指標仍有不少差距
專家表示,從經濟指標上看,我國在2013年人均GDP已達到6800美元,步入中等偏上國家的行列,但綜合教育、醫療、社保、文化等各項社會發展指標看,與發達國家的水平仍有不少差距。
“人均GDP超過1萬美元固然是好事,但我國經濟社會發展與發達國家相比仍有差距,比如受教育程度、醫療和社會保障等方面,我們的人均指標仍然較低。”福州大學社會學系主任甘滿堂說。
在廈門工作的林先生告訴記者,他的年收入雖然逐年增長,已經達到了1萬美元以上,但過高的生活成本讓他感覺喘不過氣來,房租等各項基本生活開支巨大,日子過得有些捉襟見肘。
而談到教育問題,在北京打拼了10多年的劉先生心情更為複雜。 “雖說北京經濟很發達,但教育資源有限且分配並不公平,能不能上學要看有沒有北京戶口。”出於無奈,許多和他一樣的外地人只能將小孩暫時送回外地老家上學。
在他看來,我國財政性教育經費佔GDP比重遠低於發達國家的平均水平。目前世界平均水平為7%左右,其中發達國家達到9%左右,而我國2013年才達到4.30%。
暨南大學管理學院教授胡剛認為,2014年廣東居民人均可支配收入佔人均GDP的比重僅為40%,福建為37%左右,距離發達國家55%左右的平均水平仍有不小的距離。
“我國GDP來源於投資驅動佔比較大,社會財富和資源分配不均,老百姓在上學、就業、養老等方面還存在不少難題。”胡剛說。
更加註重居民生活質量和福利水平
人們對GDP增長“感覺不明顯”,說明政府在社會民生等方面還有許多功課要做。今後應更加註重提高居民收入,提升居民消費能力,進一步做好教育、醫療、養老等社會保障工作,避免社會分配不均等問題擴大。
“經濟發展的最終目的是提高生活質量和水平。”甘滿堂說,“政府應建立新的綜合性指標,並切實採取措施,讓廣大群眾享受到經濟發展帶來的成果。”
“隨著經濟水平的提高,人們對教育、醫療、旅遊、娛樂等消費需求越來越高。”胡剛表示。
從國外經驗看,邁入1萬美元門檻後,國家和社會的發展重心一般由經濟發展為主轉向社會發展為主。 “政府應當進一步解決居民在健康、養老、社保等方面遇到的實際問題,放棄唯GDP增長的發展理念,更加註重民生。”彭澎說,此外,政府還應該注意化解收入差距擴大等社會風險。
http://sh.xinhuanet.com/
2015年2月7日星期六
EAGLES vs GOLD EAGLES: Two Charts You Have To See
There are two charts every precious metals investor needs to see. The U.S. Mint is celebrating its 30 year anniversary producing Gold and Silver Eagles and if we look at the sales data of these two Official precious metal legal tender coins going back to 1986, we find some very interesting trends.
The U.S. Mint sold an average of 34.9 million Silver Eagles from 2008-2014 compared to 7.2 million from 1986-2007.
Investors purchased nearly 5 times more Silver Eagles a year after the Great U.S. Economic Collapse in 2008, than they did from 1986-2007.
In contrast, the U.S. Mint only sold an average of 50% more Gold Eagles from 2008-2014 compared to the yearly average from 1986-2007.
Essentially, the sales increase in Silver Eagles outperformed Gold Eagle sales by 10 to 1 since 2008!
From the SRSRocco Report:
There are two charts every precious metals investor needs to see. The U.S. Mint is celebrating its 30 year anniversary producing Gold and Silver Eagles and if we look at the sales data of these two Official precious metal legal tender coins going back to 1986, we find some very interesting trends.
The U.S. Mint started selling Gold and Silver Eagles in 1986. The first year the U.S. Mint produced these coins, 1,787,750 oz of Gold Eagles were sold compared to 5,096,000 Silver Eagles… a 3 to 1 ratio. That was the first and last year, the Silver-Gold Eagle ratio was that low.
Let’s first look at the Gold Eagle sales chart:
I decided to break down the chart into two separate time frames. We have the total sales from 1986-2007 (before the collapse of the U.S. Investment Banking and Housing Industry), and then after from 2008-2014. As we can see, total sales from 1986-2007 were 13,997,000 oz of Gold Eagles compared to 6,655,000 oz during the 2008-2014 time period.
If we divide the total of Gold Eagle sales from these two time periods by the number of years, we have the following:
Gold Eagle Annual Sales Average
(1986-2008): 13,997,000 / 22 years = 636,227 oz avg. per year
(2008-2014): 6,655,000/ 7 years = 950,714 oz avg per year
So, after the U.S. economy and financial system teetered on the brink of collapse, the U.S. Mint sold an average of 950,714 oz of Gold Eagles annually compared to the 636.227 oz per year prior to 2008.
Furthermore, the total Gold Eagles sold from 1986 to 2014 was 20,652,000 oz. This is a great deal of gold investment at a little more than 652 metric tons (mt). Now, let’s compare the this to the Silver Eagle sales market.
A quick glance at the Silver Eagle chart and we can see a much different picture compared to the historic Gold Eagle chart. From 1986 to 2007, the U.S. Mint sold 158,262,000 Silver Eagles. However, from 2008-2014, the sales of Silver Eagles were 54% higher at 244,304,500.
If we break down the Silver Eagle sales in these two time periods, we have the following:
Silver Eagle Annual Sales Average
(1986-2008): 158,264,000 / 22 years = 7,193,818 avg. per year
(2008-2014): 244,304,500/ 7 years = 34,900,643 avg per year
What a huge difference in sales trends between these two precious metal legal tender coins. The U.S. Mint sold an average of 34.9 million Silver Eagles from 2008-2014 compared to 7.2 million from 1986-2007.
Investors purchased nearly 5 times more Silver Eagles a year after the Great U.S. Economic Collapse in 2008, than they did from 1986-2007. In contrast, the U.S. Mint only sold an average of 50% more Gold Eagles from 2008-2014 compared to the yearly average from 1986-2007. Basically, Silver Eagles outperformed Gold Eagle sales by 10 to 1 since 2008.
It’s plain to see the difference between these two charts… total Silver Eagle sales were much higher in the last seven years, while the total volume of Gold Eagle sales were greater in the 1986-2007 time period.
In addition, the U.S. Mint sold a staggering 402.5 million Silver Eagles (12,520 mt) from 1986 to 2014 compared to the 20.6 million oz of Gold Eagles (652 mt). If we assume the following market prices for the total Gold & Silver Eagle sales, this would be the result:
GOLD & SILVER EAGLE Estimated Total Asset Value
Gold Eagles: 20,652,000 X $1,320 = $27.2 Billion
Silver Eagles: 402,568,500 X $20 = $8.0 Billion
Even though investors purchased 20 times more Silver Eagles than Gold Eagles since the U.S. Mint started producing these coins, the total estimated Silver Eagle asset value is $8 billion compared to the $27.2 billion in Gold Eagles.
Also, think about those figures for a minute. The total U.S. Gold & Silver Eagle Asset Value is approximately $35 billion. Can you imagine what would happen if just a fraction of the $100 Trillion Global Conventional Assets under management tried to move into this market??
NOTE: to arrive at the average price per coin value, I took the present market price of gold and silver and then added a premium.
Investors who purchased Gold and Silver Eagles will do wonderfully in the future when the U.S. Dollar finally disintegrates into a typical Banana Republic Fiat Currency. However, the value of Silver Eagles will out perform Gold Eagles in a big way as the masses try to acquire the more affordable Official Coin.
Lastly, I did receive a reply from APMEX on the issue of Silver Eagle sales since 2011. As many of you remember, Ted Butler has stated several times that JP Morgan is the big buyer of Silver Eagles since April 2011. Butler believes JP Morgan purchase half of all the Silver Eagles produced since April 2011.
I have written in response to that providing evidence from some of the Top Online Precious Metal Dealers that their Silver Eagle sales have continued to grow since 2011. The Chief Operating Officer from APMEX, Kenneth Lewis was kind enough to share some sales info that is not something they typically do.
Unfortunately, I have not yet received permission to reproduce his email, but I can tell you this… Mr Lewis confirms that Gold sales were lower over the past several years, but Silver Eagle sales growth continues to improve paralleling the figures put out by the U.S. Mint.
2015年2月5日星期四
盧布暴跌 俄羅斯踏上投資黃金的好時機
黃金以美元計價,而勞動和其他費用盧布支付,以極地黃金公司為龍頭的俄羅斯礦業公司正從目前疲軟的貨幣中獲利。由於今年世界經濟放緩促進金屬需求增加,黃金價格上漲了約6%。
目前中國的采礦公司是世界上花費成本最低的,而俄羅斯是緊隨其後的最大生產商,根據總部位於莫斯科的投資公司BCS金融集團稱。更重要的是,該國的中央銀行從國內企業購買黃金的數量增加,目的是努力遏制經濟危機減少外匯儲備。
“對於俄羅斯黃金來說,今年可能是歷史上利潤最好的一年,”丘雅克黃金生產商說。“即使兩位數的通貨膨脹,今年其成本也可能要下降25%。”
不過,在未來收益可能不會繼續強烈下去,莫斯科阿爾法銀行首席經濟學家娜塔莉亞奧爾洛娃說,中央銀行的黃金儲備,現在可能是足夠的,它不會再以2014年一樣的步伐購買黃金。“通過擴大購買黃金,央行對歐洲的經濟制裁做出反應,“奧爾洛娃在電話中說。“監管機構希望多元化其外匯儲備,遠離美元、歐元,由於俄羅斯和美國、歐洲的關系存在危機。”
黃金成本比其他地方低15%
因為盧布貶值,俄羅斯提取黃金的成本比全球平均水平低約%15,湯姆森路透社公司的研究單位GFMS,估計俄羅斯生產黃金的成本在每盎司736美元。
2014年,俄羅斯的第二大貴金屬礦產商Polymetal International Plc平均生產成本低至每盎司625美元,今年可能下跌至每盎司575美元。俄羅斯最大的金屬供應商極地黃金公司,的生產成本創紀錄新低654美元。
極地的股票今年上漲8.7%,而Polymetal上漲4.2%。
而極地黃金拒絕評論其成本,Polymetal首席執行官維塔利在1月29日接受電話采訪時說,“由於盧布的下跌,俄羅斯黃金生產成本的水平最低。”
俄羅斯的優勢
因為盧布繼續下滑,今年俄羅斯黃金礦業優勢將增長。在2014年盧布對美元匯率下降了46%之後,今年再次暴跌7%。以美元計算,俄羅斯黃金生產商有25%的空間可以削減成本。
俄羅斯的貨幣崩潰會影響到黃金價格。2014年1月,黃金價格平均約為42000盧布一盎司。一年後,幾乎翻了一番,約80500盧布。
與此同時,俄羅斯央行儲備黃金保有儲量,為了消耗其持有的美元、歐元和其他外幣。
隨著盧布暴跌,俄羅斯總統弗拉迪米爾普京說,中央銀行應謹慎地管理其外匯儲備。
去年為了支撐盧布銀行花了大約880億美元,同時2014年底它的黃金儲備增加到388百萬盎司,二十年來最大值,根據國際貨幣基金組織的數據,價值近500億美元。
黃金輸出上升
隨著強勁的需求和價格的上漲,俄羅斯的黃金產量增加。
在2014產量上升了約8%從275噸到280噸(9700000到9900000盎司),以目前價格計算,價值高達125億。使俄羅斯超越澳大利亞成為世界第二大黃金供應商,俄羅斯黃金生產商聯盟主席 Sergey Kashuba說,今年黃金輸出可能會增加2-3%,另外2月2日自然資源部說,2015的產量可能會達到300噸。
盧布疲軟最終可能會削弱通脹,進口的上升和工人要求提高工資以補償成本,Nesis 在1月29日與投資者的電話會議上表示。
俄羅斯的通貨膨脹率在12月達到11.4%,3月或4月可能達到峰值15%-17%,經濟部副部長Alexey Vedev說
http://gold.hexun.com.tw/2015-02-05/173100049.html
Marc Faber Gold Prediction 2015: Physical Bullion or Gold Miners?
Marc Faber believes that gold dipping below $1,000 is a possibility, however it "won't stay there for too long" he says. Find out whether he advocates owning physical gold or mining companies.
Silent Epidemic; The Untold Story of Vaccines - Movie - directed by Gary Null
Silent Epidemic, by award winning film director Gary Null, is the first documentary to investigate thoroughly the true medical record and the historical evidence about vaccine marvels. Conventional medicine has herald the invention of vaccines as a miracle of modern science. It claims that vaccines have been proven to prevent and eradicate infectious diseases. We are told that vaccines are safe and effective, and that "herd immunity" can be achieved if a high percentage of a population is vaccinated. However, does the science support these claims and what are the untold consequences?
變種流感昨殺7人 袁國勇分析: 疫情再多六周 料600人死亡
流感肆虐】
【本 報訊】變種甲型H3N2流感繼續殺人。昨日再多九人感染流感後要接受深切治療,當中七人死亡,至今已有一百一十八人死於流感,其中十人是壯年人士。專家袁 國勇預料,疫情再持續多四至六周,今次流感高峯期可造成五百至六百人死亡。多名立會議員昨批評政府低調處理疫情,衞生防護中心隨即在昨日傍晚,首次在今次 疫情中開記者會交代。
記者:陳沛冰 伍雅謙
香港大學微生物學系講座教授袁國勇分 析,以現時每日平均十人死於流感,預料疫情再持續多四至六周,會再多三百至四百人死亡,冬季流感高峯期隨時有五百至六百人死亡。若未能預防夏季流感高峯 期,「隨時最差好似○五年有一千一百人死」。○四年及○五年本港同樣出現甲型H3N2流感病毒變種,「𠵱家死亡人數攀緊上去,未知到頂未」。
袁指,流感患者未必一定發高燒,有病人只有低燒但已出現心包積水,需接受深切治療。現階段政府不需實施停課停工等特別措施,實施特別措施與否視乎高危及非高危人士死亡率有否異常,以往非高危人士死亡率約0.2%,暫時未見到超出此數字。
醫管局傳染病中心醫務總監曾德賢稱,去年一至三月因流感入院約五千人,但單是上月已超過四千人,個案明顯增加,H3N2甲型流感佔整體流感個案九成,特敏福治療仍有效。
議員批政府嘆慢板
立法會昨就流感疫情作緊急質詢,多名議員批評政府處理流感疫情「嘆慢板」。公民黨立法會議員郭家麒稱,政府對流感表現是「急驚風撞着慢郎中」,流感死亡人 數直逼當年沙士三百零二人,政府未加大力度提醒市民防疫,「佔中都日日四點鐘許Sir啦!」工黨何秀蘭表示,近期多間學校爆發流感,當局應停課; 政府目前主要透過網頁公佈每日流感最新情況,但嚴重病患或死亡個案多發生在長者身上,長者未必識上網,主要靠看免費電視,「你好溫柔咁叫火燭,冇人識 走」。涂謹申亦表示,其三歲兒子早前半夜高燒到東區醫院看急症,要等候五個半小時,轉往私家醫院檢驗後證實是甲型流感,認為急症室應加緊處理流感個案。
食 衞局局長高永文否認低調處理,指近日見記者十七次,不斷提醒市民要注意個人衞生及接種流感疫苗。普通科門診於農曆新年期間會增加約一千四百個名額。昨晚防 護中心在今次流感疫情中,首次開記者會。中心總監梁挺雄指,近兩周流感新增個案上升速度轉趨穩定,未如首三周快,估計流感持續至三月底。目前政府有約一千 九百萬粒特敏福儲備,數量充裕。
今日最低氣溫跌至攝氏十二度,梁指天冷會影響抵抗力,市民應小心。他否認中心低估疫情,指自一月底中心已透過不同途徑發佈訊息。
http://hk.apple.nextmedia.com







