中国将投入10.6万亿人民币清理银行坏账

有事就有人包底，洗乜驚呀！

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据英国《金融时报》最新报道，中国政府加大了清理中国银行[0.31% 资金 研报]体系中坏账的力度，国家主导的一个债转股计划的价值仅在过去两个月就飙升大约1000亿美元。

这一政府主导的计划迫使银行注销坏账，以换取困境企业的股权。万得资讯(Wind Information)数据显示，该计划的价值从3月初的大约1200亿美元飙升至4月底的2200多亿美元。

对于北京方面将付出多大努力对金融体系进行资本重组，行业观察人士展开了激烈辩论。目前不良贷款占中国各银行资产的百分比越来越高——有人估计高达19%。债转股的最新数据，以及去年启动的债务转债券，都显示一场低调纾困行动正在进行中。

“人们可以说，政府主导的资本重组已经在以一种非典型的方式发生，从而减少对字面意义上的资本重组的需要，”标普全球评级(S&P Global Ratings)常驻北京的金融机构总监廖强表示。

据中国媒体报道，2015年已经批准了高达4万亿元人民币（合6120亿美元）债务转债券，这种操作意味着，国有控股的银行把发放给地方政府关联企业的短期贷款，置换成期限长得多的债券。

分析师们迄今对债转股计划远远没有那么热情，他们表示，胁迫银行成为那些无力偿还贷款的企业的利益相关者，将在今年进一步拖累利润。廖强称，债转股非但没有支撑银行的稳定性，反而削弱了银行的稳定。

这些计划只是北京方面应对坏账的两条战线。

15年前曾经纾困中国四大国有商业银行的国有控股的资产管理公司，过去两年在购买坏账组合方面日趋活跃。由省级政府运营的地方资产管理公司在地方一级开展着同样的业务。

政府还重启了不良贷款证券化市场，本月的两笔交易价值5.34亿元人民币。这些努力甚至上了网，债务管理公司在中国最大的在线零售网站兜售不良贷款。

根据银行业监管机构的数据，中国各商业银行的平均不良贷款率官方数字在3月底达到1.75%。这标志着这些政府批准的数字连续第11个季度上涨。

但官方数据不包括所谓的僵尸贷款；一些分析师表示，规模大得多的僵尸贷款存量意味着，未来可能需要对银行进行一场更为正式的纾困。

里昂证券(CLSA)分析师郑名凯(Francis Cheung)估计，截至去年底，坏账占中国各银行贷款账簿的15%至19%，政府可能不得不向银行体系注入10.6万亿元人民币的新资本[0.00%]，相当于15.6%的国内生产总值(GDP)。

渣打银行(Standard Chartered)亚洲区首席经济学家马德威(David Mann)指出，“影子金融”（泛指规避监管的银行表外放贷）加剧了这个问题。不过，马德威在最近一份报告中提出，中国为了清理坏账而实施的众多计划，将减少对银行体系进行直接纾困的需要。

据里昂证券估计，中国的影子贷款总额在去年底达到大约40万亿元人民币，为GDP的59%左右。尽管其中有很大一部分并非不良贷款，但其不透明性意味着很难评估其风险，或对其进行监管。

Gold is insurance against the bad guys hitting the reset button

By Stephen Guilfoyle | @Sarge986

It used to be that when I spoke about gold, the folks that listened would look at me as if I were speaking in some ancient foreign language that nobody could understand. Lately, as I stand at my spot on trading floor of the New York Stock Exchange, willing to talk the financial markets or baseball with anyone who's also willing—more and more am I asked about gold. Several times a week in fact.

In case you missed it, when the World Gold Council released its Q1 data, total demand for gold was up 21% year-over-year, largely due to demand for investment purposes. There were yearly declines in demand from Q1 2015 to Q1 2016 for jewelry, technology purposes, and even purchases made by central banks.  Demand for investment purposes was up 122% year-over-year. That says something. It says that I am not alone in my thoughts. If the central banks (huge buyers in recent years) get started again, watch out.

So, what is it about this barbarous relic that it refuses to just go away quietly? Is it money? Is it a commodity? Quite frankly, I think it is both. There certainly are characteristics that even the most impure of monetarists can not deny: store of wealth, divisibility, and even at times of crisis, a medium of exchange.

If you follow my notes, you know my current allocation toward gold is 7.5%. We took it to that level from 5% in late December, and we've flirted with taking it even higher in recent weeks, though we have dragged our feet. My thought is that if the physical (which is the best way to own) were to make another run at $1,300 an ounce that you may want to be at 10% for the long haul. Conversely, if the yellow metal were to run the other way, I think you lighten up at $1,210 before throwing away your profits from Q1.

Gold is a very difficult asset to value in terms of fiat currency, and one's short-term view on it really depends on global monetary policies. Should the FOMC tighten in the near future—while the rest of the planet is still easing—there will likely be a pullback in price, at least in dollar terms. However, should there be no attempt to tighten—or maybe even if there is a failed attempt—this could cut the beast loose. We've all seen what this beast can do when it gets loose. Crazier things have happened and can happen again.

Long-term? I bet you saw how the IMF is pressuring the eurozone to allow Greece to put off paying any interest or even principal on its bail-out loans until 2040. Does anyone among us truly believe that the global debt super-cycle will never come to an end? Not tomorrow, not next year. But there will be a do-over at some point.

There is a likelihood that gold will play a role in the next monetary system. I look at this as insurance—a way to preserve a slice of your portfolio should the bad guys ever hit that reset button.

Am I wrong? I sure hope so.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/gold-is-insurance-against-the-bad-guys-hitting-the-reset-button-163831013.html#

JP Morgan: Ultimately gold could wind up replacing sovereign bonds

We just received some incredible honest statements from Solita Marcelli, global head of fixed income, currencies and commodities at JPMorgan Private Bank (open only to wealthy investors with at least $5 million of investable assets).

She told CNBC this week that the bank’s analysts are expecting to see gold prices go higher for the rest of the year. ($1400 by the end of 2016). This is a huge shift from the bank’s position early this year when they expected an average annual price of $1,104 for 2016.

Marcelli points to the negative interest rates around the world and said, “Gold is looking more and more attractive every single day. As a non-yielding asset, it has a minimal storage cost, so when you compare it to negative-yielding assets, it actually has a positive carry…Gold is a great portfolio hedge in an environment where world government bonds are yielding at historically low levels.”

She continued by stating that ultimately ‘gold could wind up actually replacing sovereign bonds, long considered the safest of safe places for wealth, as the preferred safe haven for investors’.

She also expects central banks to continue buying gold to diversify their foreign exchange reserves.

http://www.thebigresetblog.com/index.php/jp-morgan-ultimately-gold-could-wind-up-actually-replacing-sovereign-bonds/

事不寻常 高盛、索罗斯同时预言到一件事将发生

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核心提示：高盛突然转而看好国际油价，实在事不寻常，预示短期美元汇率可能进一步走弱。与此同时，索罗斯第一季度将其公司在美国股市的投资额减少了三分之一以上，并购入世界最大黄金生产商巴里克黄金价值2.64亿美元的股票。

高盛的Damien Courvalin和Jeffrey Currie等分析师在5月15日的电子邮件报告中表示，原油市场从库存接近饱和转变为供不应求的时间比预期提前。

高盛将第二季度西德州中质原油(WTI)价格预测从每桶35美元调高至45美元，第三季度预测从40美元上调至49美元，第四季度预测从45美元提高到51美元，2016年全年预测从38.40美元调高至44.60美元。

尼日利亚供应受阻、伊朗增产以及需求增加等因素，正带动油价进入“转型阶段”。

实物市场“终于开始”再平衡；今年第一季度市场供应过剩140万桶/天，第二季度可能变成供应短缺7.1万桶/天。

在需求强劲和产量减少推动下，今年出现供不应求的局面比高盛3月中旬预测的时间提早了一个季度。高盛将2017年原油价格预测从每桶57.50美元调低至52.50美元。

事实上，高盛突然转而看好国际油价，实在事不寻常，预示短期美元汇率可能进一步走弱，除了为美国经济护航与推高通胀率、达到再次加息门槛之外，更重要的是打救美国页岩油企业，避免所发行高息债券（垃圾债券）连环“爆炸”。此时国际油价止跌回升，对美国利大于弊。

换而言之，弱美元政策重新抬头了。

与此同时，在本周五七大工业国(G7)会议举行在即之际，美国财政部长杰克卢突然发表狠话，直言对于日本推出导致日元贬值的措施感到不安，意味不会容许日元再大幅贬值，以免造成强美元影响美国经济表现，这可以解释近月日元兑美元易升难跌原因。

市场不宜对G7会议有太大期望，担心会后日元恢复强劲升势，兑美元可能会一举升破一百大关，势必触发新一轮日元套息交易拆仓活动，全球股市将会有难了，爆发拆仓套现浪潮，近日欧美日股市均不约而同出现抛售压力，资金已布局空仓了。

美股“末日审判”快到

值得注视的是，美国经济转弱，首季GDP增0.5%，并且为两年最慢增速，而企业季绩令人失望，普遍出现倒退，尤其是美国汽车销售已告见顶，难以再支持美股现水平企稳。

股王苹果公司股价已在去年见顶，无法推动美股向上，近日更失去全球市值最高宝座，可能预示“末日审判”快到了。

一大波大佬持仓公布

随着今年一季度结束，华尔街对冲基金最新持仓报告也在逐步披露。

周一公布的监管申报文件显示，亿万富翁乔治·索罗斯第一季度将其公司在美国股市的投资额减少了三分之一以上，并购入世界最大黄金生产商巴里克黄金价值2.64亿美元的股票。

索罗斯基金管理公司上季度末的美股持股下降了37%至35亿美元。索罗斯还披露持有105万SPDR黄金信托股份的看涨期权，这是跟踪黄金价格的交易所交易基金。

雷根时期的预算管理局局长(OMB)斯托克曼昨天公开表示看空美股，他说依统计数据，美国损耗盈余、汽车销售创高峰、存货比率、运费都反映美国经济比人们想像的还不稳定，他大胆地说：“在这一轮政治循环必定难逃经济衰退。”预言标普500下半年跌幅高达40%；所以今年11月美国总统不如选特朗普那样的破坏狂突破现状、用不同方式治理国家。

近来市场看空美股的言论不断，综观目前表态看跌的重量级投资人发言，两大主因是美国错误的经济政策、中国经济成长放缓。

有美国商界最危险的人物、企业狙击手之称的伊坎，四月宣称已清空了手中所有苹果股票，他并预期今年股市会先跌20%，如果政府实施刺激措施，可望再回涨20%。

投资大师罗杰斯说，投资者今年要为美联储过去错误的财政、货币政策买单。全球最大对冲基金桥水创始人达里奥认为，美联储在金融危机后，对市场释放大量资金、制造资产价格泡沫，导致政策逐渐失效；股市面临债务周期结束后的下跌风险。

债券天王格罗斯分析，主要的新兴市场经济衰退现象未见好转，加上各国央行提振经济效果甚微，市场已意识到全球经济成长缺乏动力，于是投资者大量抛售股票，他预言今年底美股跌深11%。

比美联储加息还大的风险

美国11月总统大选将很快成为继美联储加息时机与中国货币政策之后，又一个造成市场动荡的不确定性因素。

事实上，美国总统大选与英国脱欧公投结果成为美股以至全球股市动荡之源，尤其是一旦共和党特朗普当上总统，以其反全球化的立场，全球金融市场必然将会大乱，现时美股回落开始反映总统大选的风险溢价。

“Power Elites Are Now Speaking Openly About Revaluing Gold” – Jim Rickards

The power elites are now speaking openly about revaluing gold, which is just a form of currency devaluation…”

Submitted by Larry White:

Former BIS official Stefan Gerlach writes a new article appearing on Project Syndicate here. He notes that the potential for a major crisis still exists in the global financial system and has some interesting comments on gold. Below are some quotes from the article and then some added comments. See Jim Rickards comment on the article below.

“Eighty-five years ago this month, Credit-Anstalt, by far the largest bank in Austria, collapsed. By that July, banks in Egypt, Germany, Hungary, Latvia, Poland, Romania, and Turkey had experienced runs. A banking panic hit the United States in August, though the sources of that panic may have been domestic. In September, banks in the United Kingdom experienced large withdrawals. The parallels to the 2008 collapse of the US investment bank Lehman Brothers are strong – and crucial for understanding today’s financial risks.
For starters, neither the collapse of Credit-Anstalt nor that of Lehman Brothers caused all of the global financial tumult that ensued. Those collapses and the subsequent problems were symptoms of the same disease: a weak banking system.
In Austria in 1931, the problem was rooted in the breakup of the Austro-Hungarian Empire after World War I, hyperinflation in the early 1920s, and banks’ excessive exposure to the industrial sector. By the time Credit-Anstalt collapsed, the world had been in deep recession for two years, banking systems in a number of countries had become fragile, and tensions were easily transmitted across national borders,with the gold standard exacerbating financial vulnerability by constraining central banks’ ability to act.”
. . . . . .
“Unable to rule out a new crisis, how well are we equipped to cope with one? The short answer is: not very.
In fact, if a financial crisis were to occur today, its consequences for the real economy might be even more severe than in the past.”        . . . . . .
“In the early twentieth century, central banks could all devalue their currencies against gold, thereby raising the price level and escaping debt deflation. And, indeed, nine countries, including the UK, did exactly that in 1931, with another eight countries, including the US, following suit over the next five years. Today, however, currency depreciation is a zero-sum game.”

Click here to read the full article on Project Syndicate

金銀牛熊搏鬥未決勝負

石林
在金市牛熊雙方巨人進行激烈搏鬥的時候，世界黃金協會（WGC）上週發布了今年第一季度《黃金需求趨勢報告》。數據顯示，該季度全球黃金供應較去年同季上升5%，而需求增長達19%。 （請讀者註意︰協會新聞公佈的數字與內文頗有差異！）供應方面，宜留意金商對沖沽出的數量有所回升。需求方面，則以金飾需求的同比下降21%，引人關注。
造成上述情形的原因頗多，但較重要的是該季黃金價格顯著回升，壓抑了這方面的需求。其中以印度最為明顯，該季金飾需求只得88.4噸，同比下降41%。中國內地此項需求為179.4噸，同比下降17%。本港此項需求則為10.2噸，同比下降25%。但值得注意，今年首季投資者大幅增持黃金類交易所買賣基金（ETFs），令該項的需求淨​​增加363.7噸，與去年首季相比，大幅增加了13.2倍。這是驅動該季金價顯升的重要因素。
淨倉量處極端水平
上述數據並未為正在激烈爭鬥的金市牛或熊任何一方提供新的彈藥。牛方依然認為最近金融市場波動、美國加息步伐放緩，黃金體現為很好的分散風險工具，故投資需求顯著增加。熊方則說，今年首季金價上升缺乏最根本的金飾需求支持，只靠資金流入ETFs類，但如此大規模的流入是難以持續的。
美元上週持續從早前調整低位向上回揚，金銀兩市熊方得到一定的助力，再進行反攻。金價卒以1272.8美元收市，銀價則收報17.08美元，兩者均從近數月的高峰連續兩週回跌。
儘管如此，熊方不見得佔有很大優勢，週內金價只回跌至1258.2美元便回穩，銀價則跌至16.85美元又見回彈，兩市走勢未見有明顯的突破。
牛方不見得欠缺助力，美國債券價格緩慢回升，而孳息率繼續下滑等因素，都令金銀牛方可以藉此力抗下跌壓力。
更明顯的阻力是上文說的資金繼續流入黃金ETFs類，其中最大的SPDR持金量上週末進一步增至851.13噸。
總言之，金銀牛熊雙方巨人搏鬥尚未分勝負，此見諸於兩個期市的淨倉量仍處於多年來的極端水平，未見任何一方投降認輸。
料短期續反複調整
本周宜繼續留意美匯走勢，美元可續回強但將碰到回升阻力，金銀兩市走勢依然反复。現請各位關注較少人留意的行情，就是美長短債的比率或息差又呈下降或收窄，此行情反映債市對未來的通脹預期又告放緩，無助金銀價再大升。
因此，估計金市短期續反複調整的機會， 大於即行再向上挑戰1307美元，目前回升阻力分別在1287美元與1282美元，但1257美元仍是支持。而1245美元水平可否維持是後市好淡關鍵。
銀價18.06美元已是短期高位，銀市續反複調整機會居多。目前回升阻力分別在17.7美元和17.6美元，但16.6美元及16.4美元分別是支持。而15.9美元水平可否維持是後市好淡關鍵。

 

黃金見頂可能性高

許沂光 2016年5月16日

【晴報專欄】美國期金市場未平倉合約在2016年5月3日升至2011年以來的最高紀錄，合共565,774張。從持倉報告分析，是投機大戶（Large Speculater）與金商（Commercial）大撼大的局面：金商淨沽倉的未平倉合約為294,901張，而投機大戶

淨持倉的合約則為271,648張，見附圖一。 

金商淨沽倉數目已升至2011年及2012年黃金見頂回落的水平，見附圖二。倘若歷史重演，黃金極有可能見頂回落。 

現貨黃金在2016年5月2日升至近期高位1,304美元後回落，黃金走勢偏淡。 

總結：金商大手沽空；投機大戶瘋狂買入，黃金見頂回落的可能性較大。