2011年9月5日星期一

JP Morgan responds to Max Keiser's 'Buy Silver' campaign with ReWorked Ad

真定假?

马儿呀，你慢些走

2011-09-03錢學深
金银市场本周不出所料地表现勇猛。虽然在前进的道路上预到空方阻截，但周五仍然传来捷报。黄金占领1882高地。白银占领43.25高地。给九月市场来了个开门红。大家知道，从九月中秋开始一直到明年春节是中国和印度两大市场节日和婚嫁旺季。金银现货买气将十分强劲。此外下周德国将可能救援欧猪几国和本月下旬美联储可能有QE3 动作等因素更是火上浇油。
目前多位国际金银市场分析大师看好九月金银市场会有新一波大行情。黄金1900美元是一个阻力位。空方将会在此布防，阻挡黄金的上升势头。一旦突破这道防线，黄金军就会直接杀奔2000美元。白银的阻力位在44美元。上次冲击未果。下周多头会再次攻打这一高地。一旦破了44美元，再下面就是47美元高地。多空双方可能会有一番博杀。因为这是打破银价30年前创下的历史最高记录之前的最后一道防线。
革命形势的发展在九月份可能比较迅猛。对于犹豫观望的人们来说，目前任何回调都是难得的入市机会。这让人想起一首民歌“---马儿呀，你慢些走”：

马儿呀，
你慢些走，
慢些走哎，
让我把那便宜的金银先卖个够，
买够你再接着走！

石林黃金是真正的王者

黃金呈全方位上升

上周末聞美國就業職位零增長的消息，市場對QE3的預期升溫，主流意見說這是金價繼續彈升的原因。然而，敝欄一向認為，主流意見對市場現象的解釋却流於主觀及牽強。例如前周末貝南奇並無回應是否有QE3的問題，但竟有人認為他將市場的憧憬成功延續，故股市回升。但到上周五有關預期明顯升溫，股市卻大跌，可見此類解釋頗為牽強。

同樣地，金市最近的上升與目前尚未有的QE3不存在有形的關係。自去年11月至今年6月底，聯儲局真正是實施了QE2，期內美國貨幣基礎的確增加了逾6000億美元，金價上升了142元。而自今年7月初至今並無明確的QE舉措，期內貨幣基礎轉為較持平，但金價竟大漲了381元，為QE2期間升幅的1.68倍。可見用QE來解釋金市表現更加顯得牽強！

敝欄不會跟從主流意見去解釋市場現象，而是認為，金價最近加速漲升是反映世人對貨幣和政府的信心加劇下降；同時，也是黃金牛市後期一個不可避免的現象。今年以來黃金對美元上升了42％，對非美元上升了25％，對三十年債價升了15％，對道指升了36％，對CRB指數升了30％。黃金是真正的王者！

再上衝但風險更大

認同上述觀點才能較好地理解目前金市的發展，但其發展如此地快，使筆者本人也再次顯得落後。上周金市不但將1700元視為重要參考支持水平，且只回試到1775元便再度上彈，在克服1840元短期阻力後更直撲上至1884元的高點，期金未平倉合約量和成交量也從調整市低位回增。鑑於此強勁市勢，假如日內金價仍維持在1868元之上，便將會挑戰1894元下一阻力位，進而可再試1912元的前峰位，並有可能推進至1920元，更高可量度的價位分別是1945元和1971元。

然而，若作此舉將使金市再進入超買和RSI三度背馳狀態，內部能量能否相應增強也是一個疑問，況且這些高價位亦接近對數圖十年來上升通道的頂部。因此一個較大調整恐再出現，1840元是其支持，但若1800元至1811元地帶都不支的話，恐怕要重試上次支持底部1703元。

銀市在40.3元水平獲得新支持並升越了42.3元的阻力，現將上試44.2元的主要阻力。50元依然是極重要的目標和心理阻力關，在再挑戰此關前，銀市須在44.7元至45.9元地帶打拼。

明天（周二）下午4時至5時，筆者將在香港電台普通話台的「e線金融網」節目與主持人討論金市，歡迎讀者收聽或下載。

2011年9月4日星期日

繼續金銀.....

近期1~2個月，發生了很多事情，但其有一個共性，即讓市場進一步認識到債務大山的解決出路只能是進一步的通脹，而貨幣的競爭性貶值因為瑞士央行和日本央行的干預更加明顯，對黃金來說是為淵驅魚。大量提取實物的買家也開始漸漸浮出水面，但還不知道查韋斯能否如願。至少目前，市場的多頭，還是以賺取紙面利益為主，他們內心深處的盈虧結算貨幣還是美元。這對於還沒完全上車的金銀甲蟲們有利。當然，真正的金銀甲蟲們，是不可能完全上車的，因為還會有不斷的以法幣計價的收入進入.


以金銀計價的恆生指數（截止2011年8月底）

紙幣計價下的2007的大牛市，完全就是一波反彈嘛！現在下跌通道保持完好，以白銀計價甚至有崩潰的感覺。


以金銀計價的上證指數(截止2011年8月底)

月線圖雙頭跌破頸線位，你去問問純技術分析人士，底在哪裡!月線圖的雙頭，你再問問，威力有多大？如果是個平底鍋，能平多久？

以黃金計價的伯克希爾哈撒韋公司A股指數

從95年算，黃金打平巴菲特，當時和現在，都是差不多50~60oz黃金買1股BRK的A股。
要想從90年算打平巴菲特，回到20oz黃金買1股BRK的A股，還得努力。
要想從80年算都打平，那就得回到0.5oz黃金買1股BRK的A股，這輪牛市能不能到不好說，但如果到了，很想知道老巴的感想。

當然，如果老巴萬壽無疆，終究回到的，因為從大時間尺度看，幾百年甚至更長來說，任何公司都會破產，但這個偶不感興趣。

最後，提醒一下，月線圖的下跌並不否認小周期的反彈。目前美元指數反彈，更重要的是3個月美元Libor突破了原先的0.25~0.28附近的水平，到了0.33%水平，是否會有新一輪的金融海嘯，我們拭目以待。更加期待美元指數暴漲時商品的整體表現。如果商品整體不降反升，那就說明市場真的醒了。
另外，近期LBMA的silver forward rate不斷走高，從歷史數據看，也預示著一輪大幅上漲的來臨。黃金的forward rate也有類似的情況，但沒有白銀那麼明顯。

Original Source

2010-2020年將是黃金淘汰美元的十年

The Decade 2010-2020: Towards a knockout victory by gold over the Dollar - Public announcement GEAB N°41 (January 16, 2010) -

The US Federal Reserve is no longer able, in reality, to continue its multi-decade combat against the ? barbarous relic ? in order to guarantee the supremacy of the US currency at the centre of the international monetary system. For LEAP/E2020 the decade which has just begun will be clearly marked by a complete KO of the Dollar (and the fall of most major international currencies) by gold.

We have often reminded readers in different GEAB issues that gold constitutes both a medium/long term investment intended to protect one’s capital against the risk of a loss in value of paper currencies and financial assets, and an eventual means of payment in the event of a very serious monetary crisis. In these two cases the choice of placing a portion of one’s assets in gold is a response to anticipating events and risks in the coming years (and not the coming weeks or months). For this GEAB N°41, a special edition at the beginning of a new decade, it seems opportune to LEAP/E2020 to put forward its anticipations on gold’s progress for 2010 – 2020, completing what the team wrote in issue N°34 of the GEAB in April 2009. This view of the decade is even more legitimate since we consider our analysis constitutes an aid for both individual investors as well as for the heads of central banks and institutions in charge of maintaining the value of a large amount of assets in the medium and long term (for example, pension, sovereign and insurance funds). Indeed for the first time in almost 40 years (since the ending of Dollar convertibility to gold in 1971), the interests of the world’s central banks and individual investors, once again, converge on gold: value is no longer at all guaranteed by the Dollar as an international reserve currency and, as long as the latter has no globally recognised successor, gold remains the only asset capable of maintaining this value.

We already took a look at the paradox of the gold market in the GEAB N°34, showing that if the market for the yellow metal seemed to be well controlled by the Fed and the large central banks to prevent any significant appreciation in the gold price, nevertheless, because of the global systemic crisis, the structural collapse of United States’ influence (and thus the Fed) and the related breaking up of the international monetary system inherited from 1971, gold was a safe investment in times of great uncertainty. As a reminder, since the publication date of the GEAB N°34 gold has gained more than 30% in US Dollars and more than 23% in Euros. In addition it has gained more than 100% in US Dollars and more than 85% in Euros since our first recommendation to diversify out of other investments in favour of physical gold (up to a third of assets) given in 2006.

Decade 2000-2009: Gold’s gain against 17 currencies (in %)

But if gold has seen its price rise considerably since then, it is not the result of any market move towards greater transparency and less manipulation by the US Federal Reserve and its major supporters. The three main tools used in an attempt to prevent any return of gold to the centre of the international monetary system are still in place, that is:

. the development of a ? paper gold market ? swamping the physical gold market in a sea of fictitious contracts which are essentially pledges on gold which in reality doesn’t exist (or, which amounts to the same, is repeatedly used for different contracts)

. the falsifying of the levels of actual physical gold reserves, especially those of the United States, which have not been subject to independent audit for decades

. the communication tactic, via major economic and financial media, of systematically suggesting that investment in gold is out of date, reserved for old people who only swear by gold in the same way as they would tell stories of forgotten wars, or by gold bugs whom the precious metal turns mad.

As the whole world has been able to see over the course of these last forty years, and until recently, this strategy worked extremely well, even leading a number of other countries, United Kingdom in the first place (1), to divest themselves of their gold reserves at rock bottom prices. This story thus shows very clearly the necessity for decision-makers, either to have a strong personal ability to anticipate events, or to have access to such quality anticipation. In this case, the bill for not anticipating events will reach at least ten billion USD.

But if the market, organised in such a way to permit gold to be held at a distance from the international monetary system for forty years, has continued to function, what is it that has changed and made this strong rise in the gold price possible? It is the overturning of a factor essential to world order, due to the growing impact of the systemic crisis and the entry into the phase of worldwide geopolitical dislocation: the US Federal Reserve no longer has the means to battle against the old enemy of US Dollar hegemony which gold represents. This loss of ability is, of course, a complex phenomenon, consisting of many facets which we analyse in this GEAB edition.

Major world currency prices versus gold (1900-2009) (Euro = Deutsche Mark before 1999, the broken line is German inflation of 1922 and the breakdown after WW2) – Source: World Gold Council / Matterhorn, 12/07/2009

As previously indicated, the publication of this first GEAB of the year, where we usually publish our anticipations for the next twelve months, exceptionally coincides with the beginning of a new decade and, what is more, a decade which all careful observers feel will mark an upheaval in the world order. Exceptionally as well, Franck Biancheri the GEAB coordinator, in the course of writing a book which deals with the post-crisis world (publication in France expected in spring 2010), has agreed to make one of his two anticipation scenarios for the decade 2010-2020 (2) available to our team, and therefore to the GEAB readers. Our team has seized this occasion to give our subscribers the benefit of a rational geopolitical ? dive ? into what the coming decade holds for us. Out of the two calendars, entitled respectively ? The painful dawn of the world after (3) ? and ? The tragic twilight of the world before (4) ?, our team has chosen to present the latter which is, without any doubt, the most worrying, but which also seems to us to more clearly reflect the trends at work today.

---------
Notes:

(1) In 1999, Gordon Brown, then Chancellor of the Exchequer, was the architect of this huge economic-financial mistake which has cost, at current prices, more than 10 billion USD in lost opportunity to the British treasury. The article in The Times of the 12/28/2009, provides a rare example of an advantageous comparision for France vis-à-vis Great Britain due to its decision at the time to not follow the ? economic and financial fashion ? dictated by Washington. That said, British taxpayers can console themselves by bearing in mind that if there had been another ten billion in their coffers, their government would have just given it to the banks over the course of these last months. And, to raise their spirits, they ought to know that The Times forgot to state that Nicolas Sarkozy, then French Finance Minister, organised a sale of a smaller amount of French gold also on ideological grounds (Source: Boursorama, 12/30/2009). No comment!

(2) We wish to remind our readers that this sort of scenario, presented here as a yearly chronicle of the decade to come, doesn’t pretend to be a detailed description of future events. Its main purpose is to make more understandable, more lively the trends identified during the work of anticipation. These chronicles of the future are, so to speak, a pictured version of the fundamental analyses described elsewhere.

(3) ? The painful dawn ? because giving birth to a new world order can only be painful, like all birth, even if what follows is clearly positive.

(4) ? The tragic twilight ? because if this is the route which is followed, it will have all the characteristics of a tragedy, i. e. a sad ending and the awareness by all the participants in the story that it will finish very badly.

Are Gold and Silver Bubbly?

Are gold and silver extended? Or, as the media often presents them as bubbly? Remember, the media bias towards talking down precious metals means gold and silver will be position as bubbly after every up thrust. This bias will only worse as the sovereign debt crisis expands and evolves. The challenge for long-term investors will be to know the difference between biased talk and reality.

Historical bubbly leaves a distinctive mathematically footprint.

Gold, London P.M. Fixed (Gold) and Z Scores of Secular Trend