亞洲可能陷入新一輪債務危機

歐洲的債務危機已經一拖再拖，拖到全球經濟都難過，但倫敦的獨立宏觀經濟研究機構Capital Economics又在向亞洲發出警告。他們認為，亞洲的私人部門負債正處於史上最高水平，可能釀成新的大規模債務危機。
中國大陸、中國香港和越南都給Capital Economics點了名。

總體來說，越南就奔著危機的方向去了，香港看起來還沒有那麼遭，中國大陸的房產、股市和消費者支出泡沫還不具有歐洲危機前的特徵，但中國的銀行業讓人非常不安，可能會拖累中國經濟。

1、越南可能面臨經濟下滑，根本問題是銀行業。

Capital Economics稱


    過去幾年貸款迅速增長推動房地產業泡沫膨脹，現在已經足夠大，確實在破滅。房產價格在下跌，不良貸款劇增，信貸增長已經下降，GDP急劇走弱。


不良貸款正在限制越南的增長，但越南吸引著那些離開中國的製造商，成為他們投資的目的地。越南可能是IMF被迫採取行動解救的下一個危機國家。

2、中國大陸的銀行看來不堪一擊。

2009-2010年，在政府的指示下，為刺激經濟增長，中國國有銀行的貸款達到創紀錄的人民幣17.5萬億元。大部分債務用於融資既不可持續又不必要的面子工程項目。現在，這些銀行在向散戶投資者出售時投資產品玩把戲，以此拆分及隱瞞不良貸款，這樣的手段看來就像龐氏騙局。

與英國、愛爾蘭和拉脫維亞不同，這三國的消費者債台高築，消費支出能力枯竭，當他們的房產變為負值時，銀行就削減了他們的貸款額度。中國的國有銀行向國有企業和地方政府放貸有限，甚至沒有向一些中小企業貸款。因此，中國的債務並沒有催生股市、房產和消費者貸款的泡沫。

Capital Economics指出


    雖然房產價格近幾年飛速上漲，但收入的增加速度更快。


Capital Economics還指出，2008年以來，上證綜指的表現一直不及MSCI新型亞洲指數。

但中國的銀行可能在其他方面拖累經濟下滑。假如流動性耗盡，可能會抑制保證一些就業者工作的當前刺激項目。而假如中國政府需要救助銀行，儲戶可能要以低存款利率的方式付出代價，可能會使消費者開支增長停滯。
 

 
3、香港有巨大的房產泡沫，但還沒有迫在眉睫的危險。

在香港地區，過去幾年快速膨脹的信貸規模看上去和愛爾蘭、英國及拉脫維亞三國在本國金融系統崩潰以前的類似。

以下可見愛爾蘭、英國及拉脫維亞曾經輝煌的信貸擴張

 

再看香港如今是否和他們當年相似

 

與此同時，香港目前的私人部門貸款佔GDP比例已經超過了美國、英國和亞洲大部分地區。

由於香港利率低，人們大量借款購買房產，香港的房地產價值高估。此時大量海外熱錢又湧入香港。

南華早報的報導稱，香港家庭平均收入大約有43%用來付按揭，這實際上不是問題。


    1998年房產泡沫以前……按揭在某種程度上吸收了幾乎100%的家庭收入。


Capital Economics估計，約半數的香港銀行貸款屬於房地產貸款。但香港的消費者並沒有過度貸款。按揭買房的業主至少首付要相當於房產價值的30%。按揭拖欠率僅有0.01%。

當海外熱錢撤離香港房產市場時，房產價格可能大崩盤。 Capital Economics稱房產價格需要下跌30%。屆時，香港人可能承受得了房屋價值縮水，不會蜂擁拋售。

香港有土地短缺的長期問題，所以房價必然會再次回漲。但房產滑坡無疑會讓消費者開支停滯不前。 Capital Economics稱


    如果房產價格急劇下跌，私人消費可能遭受重擊，因為消費者會在自己財富縮水時減少開支。建築業也可能受到房產價格下跌的極大影響，但也會使房地產代理、家具和其他家用商品等其他許多相關領域需求減少。
Google 翻譯企業版：譯者工具包網站翻譯工具全球商機搜尋器

無限QE的結局

聯儲局於9月13日推出新一輪的量化寬鬆（QE3），並已在9月下旬購入230億美元的按揭抵押證券（MBS），正式為新一輪的量寬揭開序幕。其實，投資者或仍對這個QE3政策有一定疑問，尤其這個「無限期」措施可維持多久？今期研究部嘗試與讀者探討這些議題。


聯儲局雖然已表明QE3沒有限期，但根據芝加哥儲備銀行總裁Charles Evans表示，失業率要回落至8%、甚至7.5%，才會考慮終止QE3；而明尼亞波利斯聯儲銀行總裁Kocherlakota甚至指出，央行可保持零利率水平，直至失業率降至5.5%之下。換言之，他們相信非加速通脹失業率水平（NAIRU；即失業回落至什麼水平，才會令通脹有升溫的壓力），會是7.5%甚至5.5%；即失業率未回落至這些水平以下之前，通脹也不會升溫。

若按此推算，並假設每月新增職位為15.1萬（相當於過去一年平均非農業新增職位的數目），以及勞動人口參與率為63.5%（相當於8月底新低讀數），視乎人口增長速度，預計目前的QE3可能最短會維持1.5年，最長則達7年之久【表】，即政策可直至2013年中至2017年底才完結。

超低息直至2015年



由此可見，聯儲局目前的超低息承諾，一直維持至2015年年中或更長時間，並非毫無根據。

當然，這只是透過NAIRU，以及假設每月新增職位增長數目推算出來；惟QE3實質上能否運作至2015年中、甚至2017年底，仍然存在疑問。

由於就業市場在年底前，相信仍難有顯著改善，加上明年初財政懸崖（Fiscal Cliff）的不明朗因素，以及外圍，尤其是歐羅區進入衰退，令聯儲局或在目前的OT2完結後，極有可能把QE3加碼（會是QE3.5嗎 ? ）。

事實上，近期市場已開始估計，待年底OT2結束後，聯儲局將再推出新一輪買公債計劃，而每月買入的金額為450億美元，相當於目前每月OT2的規模，而且，這一輪量寬很大機會不會（或不能）再作任何沖銷（sterilized），因為可供聯儲局沽出短債數量所剩無幾【註1】。換言之，這將會是新一輪QE的舉措；若連同聯儲局於每月買入400億美元MBS，聯儲局每月量寬規模，在明年初後很大機會每月達850億美元。

說回目前的QE3要運作至2015年中，甚至較後的時間，不但存在困難，甚至可謂近乎不可能。箇中原因是市場根本沒有足夠的MBS、甚至國債，給予聯儲局購入而不影響正常市場的運作。

根據美銀估算，若按照目前聯儲局購入MBS和公債的速度，聯儲局在2014年，將持有三分一的整個未償還的按揭抵押證券（考慮到持有MBS投資者，多會把派息部分再投資MBS，這比重已屬偏高水平）；而在2013年及2014年底，聯儲局持有6至30年期的美國公債，將分別達50%和65%【圖1】。

值得補充的是，市場流通的公債及MBS，要維持一定的數量，才不致令市場流動性受到破壞。而目前美國約11萬億美元國債中，有近半是由海外投資者所持有。

由此可見，不用延至2015年，「無限量」QE3的運作很快便因為市場上沒有足夠的證券流通量而無以為繼。

當然，聯儲局屆時或會推出新一輪的量寬，轉移購買其他證券資產，例如，市政府債券（Municipals）和投資級別企業債券等，情況與日本央行量寬相若。

順帶一提，目前尚未被聯儲局「貨幣化」（monetized）的債券，還有市政府債券、投資級別和垃圾級別的企業債券和非機構MBS，總市值約10萬億美元【圖2】。

量寬規模達危險水平

討論至此，讀者不難發現，聯儲局在過去數年不負責任地進行量寬，其資產規模已達危險水平；不過，隨着目前的「無限量」QE3，甚至連同明年加碼的QE（每月450億美元），預計未來兩年內，聯儲局的資產規模將由目前約2.8萬億美元，攀升至2014年約5萬億美元的瘋狂水平，或相當於約30%的GDP（【圖3】；估計明年底會升至4萬億美元，或佔24%的GDP）。

令人感到憂心的是，聯儲局日後若要進行「退市」行動（若出現此情況，一是意味美國經濟出現明顯的好轉，或美國通脹出現惡化情況而被迫退市；估計出現後者的機會較高，見下文分析），即須沽出之前在量寬期間買入的國債／MBS等，能否在市場找到足夠買家吸納這些證券已是一個極大的疑問；即使找到買家「接貨」，聯儲局沽出債券等的孳息，在「一般情況」也必然出現急升，這又反過來對經濟帶來壓力。

事實上，根據歷年數據顯示，貨幣基礎（monetary base）／GDP比率，與3個月美國公債孳息存在明顯的非線性關係【圖4】。倘若聯儲局計劃進行QE退市行動，只是將短期國債孳息率回復至2%的正常水平，意味聯儲局的資產規模便要收縮達50%之巨（若以2014年預計的5萬億美元資產規模計算，即需要收縮高達2.5萬億美元），相當於目前15%的GDP！

由此可見，經過多年來的量寬後，聯儲局已泥足深陷。當然，聯儲局若然退市，債息出現「非一般情況」不升的機會是存在的。但這很大機會是因為出現戰亂（假設美元的避險地位仍然存在）。由此看來，環球（金融）災難也許出現在聯儲局退市時！

最後，有兩點須補充的：

其一，美國將很大機會陷入長期滯脹期。若美國經濟開始呈復蘇，而聯儲局計劃退市，債息必然上升，令經濟增長很快再被拖下去。這無疑令美國經濟長期陷入低增長期，情況與日本相若。

而另一方面，聯儲局的量寬行動，卻令通脹較長期維持偏高的水平（當然，近年美國和環球經濟表現相對疲弱，暫時「抑制通脹的惡化」），使美國往後很大機會陷入長期滯脹的危機【註2】。

其次，黃金作為避險資產。正如以往的分析曾指出，聯儲局的量寬行動，間接地將其問題出口至全世界各地。多個國家尤其是新興市場的貨幣，因聯儲局的量寬行動已出現明顯的升值壓力（【圖5】；註3），被迫追隨聯儲局放鬆銀根，並且面對通脹壓力。而這通脹的壓力，只會隨着聯儲局的量寬行動而進一步升溫。作為投資者應如何對抗央行不負責任的量寬行動？

投資組合持有一定的黃金比重，也許是其一自救的辦法。如前分析指出，金融海嘯後，央行資產規模與金價有着十分密切的關係。若然，聯儲局的資產將膨脹至5萬億美元的水平，金價將有見每盎斯約3,500美元的機會，較現水平高出一倍！

註1：詳見2012年9月13日【投資分析】「QE效力所剩無幾？ 」。

註2：詳見2012年9月24日「QE把美國推向滯脹漩渦 」。

註3：詳見2012年10月11日「沽澳元買黃金]。

分析員：呂梓毅

Jim Sinclair’s, 3-Nov-2012

Jim,

I'm sure your mailbox is inundated with letters, so I'd like to help. Feel free to post this if you think it will relieve some of the pressure. Thank you for all you have done for gold.

Here is an overview of market action for gold longs from a HFT perspective. If you plan to trade on my information, then the trade is: Buy physical gold. Any HFT worth their salt (or silicon) already knows what I have written here.

TAKE HEART GOLD LONGS, THE PAIN IS ALMOST OVER. The next leg of our journey takes us to $1800 and over, probably in time for Christmas. The best advice I ever received in gold is: "Your emotions are always wrong." This was from a highly skilled trader named Jim Sinclair. Thank you, Jim.

Here is what is going on:

Market releases are important, and NFP is the most important.

NFP (non-farm payrolls) is the most volatile of all data releases. Every HFT (algo and human) trade it. The high risk trade is to short bonds or long S&P prior to the release. The HFT method is to close your position pre-release and have your finger on the mouse ready to pounce. Failing that, the human method is to fade the spike and profit from mean reversion.

On a ladder, you can see 1 min before a data release that orders are pulled and volume is barren. As the data is released, algos get it first. They slam orders into the market. A second (or less) later, humans add to these orders at market and the algos sweep their profits. This drives the price as stops are crossed and slow traders enter.

For this NFP release, everyone knew the data release would be the same as October. It's an election year. The number may be revised in a week or 2, but that won't matter after the election.

Knowing in markets is a powerful thing. Most trading is guessing and hoping, so knowing is a comfort rarely experienced.

When the release happens, the gold market got slammed. The previous day, traders were pulling their longs from $1725, causing the price to drop. For the release, the shorts know that longs have stops under $1700. This is a human "line in the sand". So the goal is to cross $1700. You can see the stops trigger to $1696. From there, longs feel the pain and close positions, allowing the shorts to hit the price again into the next level $1678. These were the levels in my last email, and nothing has changed. The short goal is $1650, but won't get a chance to push $1650 and here is why:

China demand. The Chinese government has encouraged it citizens to buy gold. This is a saving culture with little faith in governments and currency. These avid savers have already bought large amounts of gold and will be buying more under the assumption that "If the price was good at $1750, then it's great at $1700!" This is how value buying works.

Come Monday, Asian value buyers will be into the market. Some may want to try to get $1650 prices or wait until Tuesday to get a better price, but will quickly snap up gold as they see the price start to go up. These physical buyers will be buying on as the price starts to press $1700 for fear of missing this BREIF pullback in price.

CIGAs should also be value buying at these levels.

On Monday, shorts will try to breach $1678. They may get it to fall (briefly) but that level won't hold. Spec shorts will be closing positions and adding longs at these prices. Spec shorts don't want to get caught behind the wave of big money value buyers. High volume VALUE traders will be back into the market on Wednesday, after the election smoke clears. These traders will be snapping up every pullback of gold, knowing they can reap a big profit before the end of the year. This starts the gold run to $1800 (short term, ie Christmas) and $2000 close behind. $2000 is a low estimate with a looming fiscal cliff and rabid money printing.

It is an election week. All eyes (news coverage) will be on the election, with real news hidden in the folds. No matter who wins, nothing will change.

If Obama wins, Bernanke will continue QE as normal, secure in his job. If Romney wins, Bernanke will increase QE in an attempt to keep his job. Either way, the printing press rolls on devaluing in the dollar and increasing the book price of hard assets. Markets know this. Knowing something in a market is a strong motivator.

There is NO scenario short of an election coup d'état of congress that can stop the presses.

If you are NOT buying gold at these prices, you have NO insurance for what is to come.

If you are long physical gold, turn off the tape and come back to it on Thursday when this paper BS is over.

Jim, thank you for all of your wisdom and advice.

Cheers,
CIGA Henry (HFT)

Commodity Index Breaks Down - So Too Does Silver

Another payrolls report today; another down day in the precious metals. Not much of a surprise here as that has been the norm for many a year. In one sense, it really did not matter what the number was as there was more than likely going to be bearish selling pressure no matter what.

When it comes to silver, if the number was a poor one, the bears would point to the fact that the QE3 was already baked into the cake and so was a non-factor. They would then point to the fact that the poor number was sign that the economy was still muddling along without any risk of inflationary factors due to the sluggish growth. Silver MUST HAVE AN INFLATIONARY ENVIRONMENT if it is to mount any sort of SUSTAINED rally.

If the number was considered friendly, then the bears would cry up the idea that the QE was not going to be continued as long as some were initially thinking since the economy was mending.

In other words, Heads, I win; Tails, you lose.

Either way, take a look at the following chart of the Continuous Commodity Index or CCI and notice that it has broken out of the recent congestion pattern. The breakout however was to the downside. Guess what; silver also broke out to the downside of its recent consolidation pattern.

I have pointed this link out to readers here for some time now - Silver is inexorably tied to the hip of the broader Commodity markets and will remain so into the foreseeable future. Next stop for the metal is today's low near $31.25 followed by a test of $31.00 - $30.80 should that previous level fail to stem its decline.

The fact that the open interest in silver refused to sharply decline during its descent was a warning that the stubborn bulls were vulnerable to a breach of chart support. There were just too many stale longs in this market which had not experienced a good and necessary cleansing. We are now finally getting that which is what this market needs in order to generate a more lasting move higher when the conditions are correct for such an event.

Note on that CCI chart, that the red support line which has been violated came in very near the important 38.2% Fibonacci Retracement level. If the index cannot rapidly recover this support level by climbing back above it and holding, it implies a subsequent test of the critical 50% level is in store.

With this in mind, observe the silver chart and note how similar the pattern is to the CCI. As stated above, the two are linked together and will generally rise and fall together.

Notice also how silver has lost support at the bottom of the recent congestion pattern which also was rather close to its 38.2% retracement level. If it cannot reverse the decline and get back above the 32 level, it will more than likely drift first towards psychological round number support near $31 and stronger chart support down near $30.70 - $30.75.

林毅夫：要改美元儲備貨幣

林毅夫：要改美元儲備貨幣

原世界銀行副總裁、著名經濟學家林毅夫表示，要避免金融危機的再次爆發，就要改變以美元為儲備貨幣的格局。

2008年爆發的金融危機不在於人民幣幣值被刻意貶低，而在於美國的過度消費，各國貨幣儲備對美元依賴過大。

在當天開幕的2012北京論壇上，林毅夫發表《國際貨幣體系和全球金融危機》的演講時做上述表示。

關於21世紀頭10年出現的經濟不平衡問題，學術團體里存在很多爭議，最流行的失衡原因分析有三：一是包括日本、韓國、中國大陸和台灣地區出現了外匯儲備暴漲；二是新興經濟體的出口策略；三是人民幣被刻意低估。

林毅夫說，三種假說都認為東亞經濟體要為美國貿易逆差負主要責任。尤其是第三個假設被媒體炒熱後更為引人注目。事實上全球經濟失衡在2002年就浮出水面，2003年中國就被指責壓制人民幣升值。「實際情況是中國2003年的貿易盈餘比1997年金融危機時還要低。而97、98年時人民幣幣值是被高估的，怎麼可能貿易盈餘下降幣值還會被低估呢？」

林毅夫認為，不能把全球經濟失衡歸結於東亞經濟體的發展，金融危機爆發的根本原因在於美國實行寬鬆的貨幣政策。2001年互聯網泡沫破滅後，美元利率從6.5%降至1%，這無異於鼓勵投機，投機產生了過度消費，過度消費產生了巨大需求，加上美國政府因伊拉克戰爭、阿富汗戰爭財政赤字不斷擴大，貿易逆差也不斷擴大。

林毅夫認為，發展中國家通過外貿掙錢換美元提高外匯儲備，再拿外匯買美國國債，這才是美國金融危機蔓延全球的根本原因。要避免危機必須改變以美元為儲備貨幣的格局。

林毅夫預計，未來幾十年可能出現美元、日元、歐元、人民幣共同承擔儲備貨幣的功能。但這些國家都有結構性問題，使用任何一種單一貨幣作為儲備貨幣都有可能導致投機。因此他主張，用國際貨幣主權機構發行的紙黃金代替美元行使儲備貨幣職能。紙黃金可以同黃金掛鈎。

這一思想英國經濟學家凱恩斯曾於1944年提出過，但由於當時美國經濟份額佔世界一半以上、世界經濟對美元過分依賴而未被採納，如今情況已然不同。林毅夫預計，再過10到20年，美國佔世界經濟份額將降至20%以下，中國、歐元區各有可能佔20%，可以考慮用新的全球性貨幣體系來代替美元中心。

林毅夫認為，以紙黃金為中心的貨幣體系對全球不論是發達國家還是發展中國家都將有利。

13 Incredible Gold & Silver Charts

From the recent Golden Cross in gold and silver to Chinese silver sales, the true money supply, historical spot charts, to investment demand, presenting 13 incredible MUST SEE gold and silver charts! Submitted by Peter Degraaf

Some Incredible Gold Charts.
Technical analysis is a great tool for analyzing where the market has been.  Since human beings almost always behave in cyclical fashion, we can observe patterns in market action that tend to repeat.  Combined with fundamental studies, TA is applied to the markets by virtually all of the successful traders.
Some patterns occur so often that names have been assigned to these patterns such as:  ‘Head and Shoulders’, ‘Cup with Handle’ and ‘A.R.A.T.’
In this essay we draw your attention to another pattern that recently occurred on the gold charts, for only the fourth time in the past seven years.  Each time it appeared during the past seven years, it precluded a strong advance.
The pattern is called:  ‘Golden Cross’, or ‘Bull Cross’.  Here is a chart (all charts courtesy Stockcharts.com unless specified), that has a blue arrow pointing to the pattern we are referring to.


During August of 2005 the 50DMA crossed over the 200DMA for a ‘Bull Cross’.  Gold was trading at $435.  Nine months later gold reached $725.




During December 2006, gold once again produced a ‘Bull Cross’.   Gold was trading at $625.  Eleven months later gold reached $850.





During March 2009, gold again carved out a ‘Bull Cross’.  Gold was trading at $900.  Thirty months later gold topped out at $1920.





Featured is the daily gold chart.  A few weeks ago the 50DMA once again moved into positive alignment with the 200DMA (blue arrow).  For confirmation we wait till both moving averages are rising (as now).  When price closes above the green arrow we will make the assumption that the pullback that began in early October has run its course.  The RSI at the top of the chart has changed from overbought to oversold.  The MACD at the bottom of the chart is back at a year-old support line.  The CCI just below the chart is making its customary bottoming confirmation pattern (green boxes).   How high will the gold price go this time?  In order to match the 2006 advance, price could reach $2740; to match the 2007 performance gold would top out at $2640, but in the event that gold matches the performance of 2011 we could see gold trading at $3,330.  According to Mark Twain ‘history does not always repeat, but it often rhymes.’
But what about the fundamentals?  After all we need two wheels on the cart for balance.  The energy for the current bull market in gold comes from several sources:
#1:   Budget deficits.
#2:   Negative interest rates (CPI higher than short-term interest rates).
#3    Increasing money supply, (more dollars and Euros chasing a limited amount of gold ounces.

The next chart is a good example of item #3.

 

This chart courtesy Mises.org shows the U.S. money supply is rising exponentially.  The grey bars indicate a recession is underway.  The Obama recession is now the longest recession since the Great Depression.  As long as the recession continues, the money supply can be expected to rise since politicians cannot seem to stop spending.Well, and what about silver?  Surely when gold rises, we can expect silver to advance as well?

 

 

Featured is the daily silver chart from 2005 – 2006.  Notice how the 50DMA rose above the 200DMA as it produced a ‘Bull Cross’.  The rally that followed moved silver from 7.50 to 15.25, for a 100% increase.

 

 

This silver chart highlights the next time this pattern presented itself.  It was November 2007.  Silver was trading at 14.50 and the subsequent rally took price to 21.00, for an increase of 45%.

 

 

This silver bar chart shows the next time price produced a ‘Bull Cross’ (in April of 2009).  Price rose during the subsequent rally from 14.00 to 49.50, for an increase of 250%.  At the right of the chart you can see where price is just now completing its latest ‘Bull Cross’.   For a close up look we present the next chart.

 

 

Here is a close-up look at silver’s latest ‘Bull Cross’.  Will we see a 100% increase like we did in 2005?  Or a 45% price rise like 2007?  Or how about an increase of 250% just as in 2011?  Time will tell.  (In the event that silver matches the 2011 performance, price would top out at $130.) In the meantime the silver bulls can take comfort from the fact that the RSI (at the top of the chart) is at previous support levels, while the CCI (at bottom of chart) is repeating a bottoming pattern (see blue boxes).




At the same time SIL, the silver producers ETF is carving out a bullish ‘cup with handle’ formation.  A breakout at the blue arrow will be the trigger for the next rally.  The green arrow points to the by now familiar ‘Bull Cross’.




This chart courtesy SRSrocco and Silverdoctors.com shows a dramatic increase in the number of Chinese 1 ounce silver Panda coins.  Every Panda removes an ounce of silver from the market.



This chart courtesy Casey Research, (based on information from the CPM Yearbook), shows silver investors moving out of ‘paper silver’ and ‘digital silver’ (black bars), into physical silver (orange bars).   As more and more investors opt for physical silver, this trend will make it increasingly difficult for traders in ‘digital silver’ to dictate the price at which physical silver is bought and sold.

This chart courtesy Seasonalcharts.com shows the seasonal tendency for gold to produce a rally after the October lows.

英國熱議貨幣新政：QEP

2012年10月30日 13:15　　　
文 / carlos


REUTERS: 大衰退四年之後，全球經濟依舊沒有恢復元氣。選民正在失去信心，而全世界政府大規模地慘敗。現在的情況有利於革命性思想的形成，若不是在政治領域，那就應在經濟領域。

在過去的幾個月中，國際貨幣基金組織一改之前維護緊縮政策的口徑，改為支持擴張性的財政政策。美聯儲致力於無限制地不斷印​​錢，直到美國經濟可以達到全民就業。歐洲央行宣布了印錢來進行無限債券購買行動，這一舉動被德國明確指責為惡魔一樣邪惡的行為。



上週，一場更激烈的辯論在英國爆發。英格蘭銀行行長金默文爵士（Sir Mervyn King）正在和“從直升機上派錢”的支持者抗爭。這些支持者的日漸獲得人心的想法源於1969年Milton Friedman所提出的解決難以對付經濟蕭條的終極辦法，也就是“為了人民而進行量化寬鬆”（QEP）。

金先生能站出來發表言論，是因為這種上個夏天出現的思潮在英國漸漸有了立足之地。英格蘭銀行在過去六個月中花了500億英鎊來支持債券價格。這相當於為英國的每個男人、女人和孩子派送830英鎊，或每個4口之家3300英鎊。在美國，聯儲承諾來支持銀行和債券基金的金額相當於每個月為每戶家庭派送500美元，無限延長直至達成全民就業。



兩週前，英國關於QEP的爭論隨著英國金融服務管理局(FSA)主席阿代爾·特納勳爵(Lord Adair Turner)的演講到達了高潮。作為金默文爵士的兩大繼任人選之一，他公開支持“直升機派錢”的理論。特納強烈地暗示在QE不再起作用的時候，需要“更創新和非傳統”的想法。在他的演講之後，金融時報，BBC和其他媒體都刊登了一系列關於“直升機派錢”的社論，而且表示英格蘭銀行應該認真地考慮這些激進的想法。



金默文不得不作為傳統央行的守護者做出辯護。在周二的演講上，他區分了“好的”貨幣創造和“壞的”貨幣創造，否定了“央行製造的貨幣可以直接用來支持政府開支或者派給人民“的說法。但是他對於QEP的否認似乎不是完全真心的，因為他的否定側重於官僚行政傳統而不是經濟因素。



他表示：“從用直升機派錢這個色彩豐富的比喻意味著這樣的操作需要將貨幣和財政政策合併在一起，但這是沒有必要的。一旦央行決定了達成通脹目標需要創造多少錢之後，是否要增加開支或降低稅率來應對經濟下滑就完全由政府自己判斷。”



這種分工是合理並且民主的，但這給QEP留出了很大的空間，因為若每增加10億英鎊的貨幣供應，直接派出這些錢來應對經濟下滑要比用這些錢來購買債券有效得多。



金默文對於QEP不溫不火的批評是否意味著他自己也對於傳統的QE失去了信心並且想要政治家們批准一些更激進的手段？如果是這樣的話，那麼這對全球的影響將是巨大的，因為金默文的思路和美聯儲和伯南克本人很接近。換句話說，金默文和其他傳統的央行學者們一樣，都懼怕將貨幣政策和財政政策混為一談。但事實是，貨幣和財政政策正在越來越密不可分，一旦利率接近於零的話，貨幣就和政府債券沒有真正區別了。



這把我們帶到了更激進的提議，一個和QEP緊密相關，但來源於國際貨幣基金組織。該組織最近發布了一份在無數經濟學家中間像病毒一樣傳播的研究報告。作者Jaromir Benes和Michael Kumhof，兩位IMF的高級員工，描述了一種貨幣管理革命，可以重塑在大衰退中流失的所有產出，並同時消除美國、英國以及絕大多數歐洲國家政府的債務負擔。



要實現這一奇蹟，無須痛苦的提高稅率或者縮減開支，只需將政府逐漸遞交給商業銀行的貨幣生產權還給政府。生產貨幣的壟斷會產生一種貨幣鑄造稅。根據IMF的報告，其資本價值相當於美國GDP的100%。將這一巨大的優惠措施從銀行轉移回政府會讓國家有能力償還絕大多數的國家債務。



這種剝奪銀行生產貨幣的激進想法，和“直升機派錢”想法一樣，是由保守派提出的。芝加哥經濟學家Henry Simons和Irving Fisher在1936年提出這一理論。這種失去貨幣製造稅的權利對於銀行遊說者來說和用直升機派錢對於傳統央行官員來說一樣無法接受。但如果全球經濟繼續不景氣，公眾對於傳統應對方法的耐心會逐漸消耗殆盡，屆時現在看起來革命性的想法很可能就變成了傳統智慧。