看到上圖美元與黃金剪不斷、理還亂地百年“糾纏”，也許應該再補充一點：所謂“各領風騷數百年”，美元的“王者”光環也在慢慢褪去。
下圖展示了美元外儲所佔比例(深綠色線)逐步下降的趨勢。
IMF的以下圖表則是呈現了全球儲備貨幣的變遷史。
2014年2月10日星期一
六幅圖展示240年美股、黃金、美元相關走勢
看到上圖美元與黃金剪不斷、理還亂地百年“糾纏”，也許應該再補充一點：所謂“各領風騷數百年”，美元的“王者”光環也在慢慢褪去。
下圖展示了美元外儲所佔比例(深綠色線)逐步下降的趨勢。
IMF的以下圖表則是呈現了全球儲備貨幣的變遷史。
中國2013年黃金產量428噸 消費量首次突破1000噸
以下為中國黃金協會最新統計數據：
中國2013年黃金需求量為1176.4噸，同比增41.4%
2013年我國黃金消費量首次突破1000噸，達到1176.40噸，同比增長41.36%。其中：首飾用金716. 50噸，同比增長42.52%；金條用金375.73噸，同比增長56.57%；金幣用金25.03噸，同比下降1.07%；工業用金48.74噸，同比下降0.23%；其他用金10.40噸，同比下降32.03%。
中國2013年黃金產量達428.16噸，同比增6.2%
2013年我國黃金產量達到428.163噸，同比增長6.23%，再創歷史新高，連續七年位居世界第一。
十大重點產金省（區）為山東、河南、江西、內蒙古、雲南、湖南、甘肅、福建、湖北、新疆，這十個省（區）黃金產量佔全國黃金總產量的82.94%。十大重點黃金企業為中國黃金集團公司、山東黃金集團有限公司、紫金礦業集團股份有限公司、山東招金集團有限公司、湖南黃金集團有限公司、埃爾拉多黃金公司（中國）、雲南黃金礦業集團股份有限公司、山東中礦集團有限公司、靈寶黃金股份有限公司、靈寶金源礦業股份有限公司，這十家企業礦產金產量佔全國礦產金總產量的45.65%。
2013年，上海黃金交易所各類黃金產品共成交11614.452噸，成交額共32133.844億元；
上海期貨交易所共成交黃金期貨合約4017.565萬手，成交額共107090.620億元。
中國2013年黃金需求量為1176.4噸，同比增41.4%
2013年我國黃金消費量首次突破1000噸，達到1176.40噸，同比增長41.36%。其中：首飾用金716. 50噸，同比增長42.52%；金條用金375.73噸，同比增長56.57%；金幣用金25.03噸，同比下降1.07%；工業用金48.74噸，同比下降0.23%；其他用金10.40噸，同比下降32.03%。
中國2013年黃金產量達428.16噸，同比增6.2%
2013年我國黃金產量達到428.163噸，同比增長6.23%，再創歷史新高，連續七年位居世界第一。
十大重點產金省（區）為山東、河南、江西、內蒙古、雲南、湖南、甘肅、福建、湖北、新疆，這十個省（區）黃金產量佔全國黃金總產量的82.94%。十大重點黃金企業為中國黃金集團公司、山東黃金集團有限公司、紫金礦業集團股份有限公司、山東招金集團有限公司、湖南黃金集團有限公司、埃爾拉多黃金公司（中國）、雲南黃金礦業集團股份有限公司、山東中礦集團有限公司、靈寶黃金股份有限公司、靈寶金源礦業股份有限公司，這十家企業礦產金產量佔全國礦產金總產量的45.65%。
2013年，上海黃金交易所各類黃金產品共成交11614.452噸，成交額共32133.844億元；
上海期貨交易所共成交黃金期貨合約4017.565萬手，成交額共107090.620億元。
中國央行更新黃金外匯儲備報表：黃金維持1054噸
中國人民銀行數據顯示，截至2013年底時，中國官方黃金儲備仍持平於1054噸。並未如此前媒體報導出現激增。
央行官方網站最近更新了“黃金和外匯儲備”報表，顯示2013年全年的黃金儲備維持在3,389萬盎司(即1,054噸)。而在“貨幣當局資產負債表”中，貨幣黃金同期也一直維持於此前的69.84億元人民幣未有變化。
中國央行過去近五年來所公佈的官方黃金儲備一直停留在1054噸，僅佔中國龐大的外匯儲備的1%左右。
央行在2009年4月份的報表顯示，中國黃金儲備自4月起增至3,389萬盎司,較此前增加了1,460萬盎司。央行報表同時顯示,在國外資產欄下，貨幣黃金也由多年未變的337.24億元人民幣,增加至669.84億元。
有報導稱中國央行一直在增加官方黃金儲備，美國貴金屬諮詢公司董事Jeffrey Nichol此前曾表示，中國可能將宣布官方黃金儲備由此前的1054噸翻倍增加至2710噸。
Jeffrey Nichols稱，從2009年至2011年共買入654噸黃金，2012年和2013年又分別買入了388噸和622噸黃金，其中大部分來自本國的黃金礦商和二級供應商。
歷史數據也同樣顯示，中國大陸2013年從香港淨進口黃金的數量並不少。
世界黃金協會(WCG)統計數據，截至2014年1月，中國黃金儲備總量居世界第六，但黃金儲備佔國家外匯儲備的比例遠低於美國、德國、意大利、法國等黃金儲備大國。排名前五的是美國8133.5噸、德國3387.1噸、國際貨幣基金組織(IMF)2814噸、意大利2451.8噸、法國2435.4噸。
從世界範圍看，中國黃金儲備佔外匯儲備的比重只有1.1%，遠低於美國、意大利、法國65%以上的佔比，與黃金儲備總量跟中國接近的瑞士、俄羅斯、日本相比，該比例也明顯偏低。
黃金儲備是指一國政府為了應付國際支付和維護貨幣信用而儲備的金塊、金幣總額。雖然黃金的作用目前已削弱，但仍然是主要的國際儲備資產和國際結算的最後手段。一國黃金儲備的多少關係到它的國際支付能力和本國貨幣的國際信用。數據來源：中國人民銀行
| 统计月度 | 指标值(万盎司) | 涨跌额 | 涨跌幅 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2012-06 | 3389.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% |
| 2012-05 | 3389.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% |
| 2012-04 | 3389.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% |
| 2012-03 | 3389.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% |
| 2012-02 | 3389.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% |
| 2012-01 | 3389.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% |
| 2011-12 | 3389.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% |
| 2011-11 | 3389.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% |
| 2011-10 | 3389.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% |
| 2011-09 | 3389.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% |
| 2011-08 | 3389.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% |
| 2011-07 | 3389.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% |
| 2011-06 | 3389.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% |
| 2011-05 | 3389.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% |
| 2011-04 | 3389.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% |
| 2011-03 | 3389.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% |
| 2011-02 | 3389.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% |
| 2011-01 | 3389.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% |
| 2010-12 | 3389.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% |
| 2010-11 | 3389.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% |
| 2010-10 | 3389.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% |
| 2010-09 | 3389.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% |
| 2010-08 | 3389.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% |
| 2010-07 | 3389.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% |
| 2010-06 | 3389.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% |
| 2010-05 | 3389.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% |
| 2010-04 | 3389.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% |
| 2010-03 | 3389.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% |
| 2010-02 | 3389.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% |
| 2010-01 | 3389.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% |
| 2009-12 | 3389.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% |
| 2009-11 | 3389.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% |
| 2009-10 | 3389.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% |
| 2009-09 | 3389.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% |
| 2009-08 | 3389.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% |
| 2009-07 | 3389.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% |
| 2009-06 | 3389.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% |
| 2009-05 | 3389.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% |
| 2009-04 | 3389.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% |
| 2009-03 | 1929.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% |
| 2009-02 | 1929.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% |
| 2009-01 | 1929.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% |
| 2008-12 | 1929.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% |
| 2008-11 | 1929.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% |
| 2008-10 | 1929.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% |
| 2008-09 | 1929.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% |
| 2008-08 | 1929.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% |
| 2008-07 | 1929.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% |
| 2008-06 | 1929.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% |
| 2008-05 | 1929.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% |
| 2008-04 | 1929.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% |
| 2008-03 | 1929.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% |
| 2008-02 | 1929.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% |
| 2008-01 | 1929.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% |
| 2007-12 | 1929.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% |
| 2007-11 | 1929.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% |
| 2007-10 | 1929.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% |
| 2007-09 | 1929.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% |
| 2007-08 | 1929.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% |
| 2007-07 | 1929.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% |
| 2007-06 | 1929.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% |
| 2007-05 | 1929.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% |
| 2007-04 | 1929.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% |
| 2007-03 | 1929.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% |
| 2007-02 | 1929.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% |
| 2007-01 | 1929.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% |
| 2006-12 | 1929.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% |
| 2006-11 | 1929.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% |
| 2006-10 | 1929.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% |
| 2006-09 | 1929.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% |
| 2006-08 | 1929.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% |
| 2006-07 | 1929.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% |
| 2006-06 | 1929.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% |
| 2006-05 | 1929.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% |
| 2006-04 | 1929.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% |
| 2006-03 | 1929.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% |
| 2006-02 | 1929.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% |
| 2006-01 | 1929.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% |
| 2005-12 | 1929.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% |
| 2005-11 | 1929.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% |
| 2005-10 | 1929.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% |
| 2005-09 | 1929.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% |
| 2005-08 | 1929.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% |
| 2005-07 | 1929.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% |
| 2005-06 | 1929.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% |
| 2005-05 | 1929.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% |
| 2005-04 | 1929.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% |
| 2005-03 | 1929.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% |
| 2005-02 | 1929.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% |
| 2005-01 | 1929.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% |
| 2004-12 | 1929.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% |
| 2004-11 | 1929.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% |
| 2004-10 | 1929.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% |
| 2004-09 | 1929.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% |
| 2004-08 | 1929.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% |
| 2004-07 | 1929.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% |
| 2004-06 | 1929.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% |
| 2004-05 | 1929.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% |
| 2004-04 | 1929.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% |
| 2004-03 | 1929.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% |
| 2004-02 | 1929.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% |
| 2004-01 | 1929.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% |
| 2003-12 | 1929.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% |
| 2003-11 | 1929.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% |
| 2003-10 | 1929.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% |
| 2003-09 | 1929.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% |
| 2003-08 | 1929.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% |
| 2003-07 | 1929.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% |
| 2003-06 | 1929.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% |
| 2003-05 | 1929.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% |
| 2003-04 | 1929.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% |
| 2003-03 | 1929.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% |
| 2003-02 | 1929.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% |
| 2003-01 | 1929.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% |
| 2002-12 | 1929.00 | 321.00 | 19.96% |
| 2002-11 | 1608.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% |
| 2002-10 | 1608.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% |
| 2002-09 | 1608.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% |
| 2002-08 | 1608.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% |
| 2002-07 | 1608.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% |
| 2002-06 | 1608.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% |
| 2002-05 | 1608.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% |
| 2002-04 | 1608.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% |
| 2002-03 | 1608.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% |
| 2002-02 | 1608.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% |
| 2002-01 | 1608.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% |
| 2001-12 | 1608.00 | 341.00 | 26.91% |
| 2001-11 | 1267.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% |
| 2001-10 | 1267.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% |
| 2001-09 | 1267.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% |
| 2001-08 | 1267.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% |
| 2001-07 | 1267.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% |
| 2001-06 | 1267.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% |
| 2001-05 | 1267.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% |
| 2001-04 | 1267.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% |
| 2001-03 | 1267.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% |
| 2001-02 | 1267.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% |
| 2001-01 | 1267.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% |
| 2000-12 | 1267.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% |
| 2000-11 | 1267.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% |
| 2000-10 | 1267.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% |
| 2000-09 | 1267.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% |
| 2000-08 | 1267.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% |
| 2000-07 | 1267.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% |
| 2000-06 | 1267.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% |
| 2000-05 | 1267.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% |
| 2000-04 | 1267.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% |
| 2000-03 | 1267.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% |
| 2000-02 | 1267.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% |
| 2000-01 | 1267.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% |
| 1999-12 | 1267.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% |
| 1999-11 | 1267.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% |
| 1999-10 | 1267.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% |
| 1999-09 | 1267.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% |
| 1999-08 | 1267.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% |
| 1999-07 | 1267.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% |
| 1999-06 | 1267.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% |
| 1999-05 | 1267.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% |
| 1999-04 | 1267.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% |
| 1999-03 | 1267.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% |
| 1999-02 | 1267.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% |
| 1999-01 | 1267.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% |
| 1998-12 | 1267.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% |
| 1998-11 | 1267.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% |
| 1998-10 | 1267.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% |
| 1998-09 | 1267.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% |
| 1998-08 | 1267.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% |
| 1998-07 | 1267.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% |
| 1998-06 | 1267.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% |
| 1998-05 | 1267.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% |
| 1998-04 | 1267.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% |
| 1998-03 | 1267.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% |
| 1998-02 | 1267.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% |
| 1998-01 | 1267.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% |
| 1997-12 | 1267.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% |
| 1997-11 | 1267.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% |
| 1997-10 | 1267.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% |
| 1997-09 | 1267.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% |
| 1997-08 | 1267.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% |
| 1997-07 | 1267.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% |
| 1997-06 | 1267.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% |
| 1997-05 | 1267.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% |
| 1997-04 | 1267.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% |
| 1997-03 | 1267.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% |
| 1997-02 | 1267.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% |
| 1997-01 | 1267.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% |
| 1996-12 | 1267.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% |
| 1996-11 | 1267.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% |
| 1996-10 | 1267.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% |
| 1996-09 | 1267.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% |
| 1996-08 | 1267.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% |
| 1996-07 | 1267.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% |
| 1996-06 | 1267.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% |
| 1996-05 | 1267.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% |
| 1996-04 | 1267.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% |
| 1996-03 | 1267.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% |
| 1996-02 | 1267.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% |
| 1996-01 | 1267.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% |
| 1995-12 | 1267.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% |
| 1995-11 | 1267.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% |
| 1995-10 | 1267.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% |
| 1995-09 | 1267.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% |
| 1995-08 | 1267.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% |
| 1995-07 | 1267.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% |
| 1995-06 | 1267.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% |
| 1995-05 | 1267.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% |
| 1995-04 | 1267.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% |
| 1995-03 | 1267.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% |
| 1995-02 | 1267.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% |
| 1995-01 | 1267.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% |
| 1994-12 | 1267.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% |
| 1994-11 | 1267.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% |
| 1994-10 | 1267.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% |
| 1994-09 | 1267.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% |
| 1994-08 | 1267.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% |
| 1994-07 | 1267.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% |
| 1994-06 | 1267.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% |
| 1994-05 | 1267.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% |
| 1994-04 | 1267.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% |
| 1994-03 | 1267.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% |
| 1994-02 | 1267.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% |
| 1994-01 | 1267.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% |
| 1993-12 | 1267.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% |
| 1993-11 | 1267.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% |
| 1993-10 | 1267.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% |
| 1993-09 | 1267.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% |
| 1993-08 | 1267.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% |
| 1993-07 | 1267.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% |
| 1993-06 | 1267.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% |
| 1993-05 | 1267.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% |
| 1993-04 | 1267.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% |
| 1993-03 | 1267.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% |
| 1993-02 | 1267.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% |
| 1993-01 | 1267.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% |
| 1992-12 | 1267.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% |
| 1991-12 | 1267.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% |
| 1990-12 | 1267.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% |
| 1989-12 | 1267.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% |
| 1988-12 | 1267.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% |
| 1987-12 | 1267.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% |
| 1986-12 | 1267.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% |
| 1985-12 | 1267.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% |
| 1984-12 | 1267.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% |
| 1983-12 | 1267.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% |
| 1982-12 | 1267.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% |
| 1981-12 | 1267.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% |
| 1980-12 | 1280.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% |
| 1979-12 | 1280.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% |
| 1978-12 | 1280.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% |
牛方力圖爭回主動權
石林
中國農曆新年前後兩星期，國際金融市場形勢有新變化，美國聯邦儲備局宣布進一步縮減每月購債規模至650億元（美元．下同）；而上周末公布的美國1月份非農業新職位增長，呈現連續兩個月低於預期。此外，中國市場在長假期後恢復正常交易。
金融市場對上述消息的反應是美股先續跌而後大幅反彈，美國10年期債券價格則先續升然後回順，美元滙價先反彈再而回跌，商品價格先微順續而明顯再彈升。
金銀價格則是先挫後揚，但上周收市價與兩周前相距不大。金價收市報1267.1元，兩周微跌1.8元；銀價收市報20.0元，兩周微升0.095元。這反映牛熊角力仍在持續，尚未有一方取得明顯優勢，只是牛方力圖爭回主動權。
各市場的互動關係
聯儲局在首次宣布縮減購債後約一個月，又宣布每月再減少100億元的購債規模，意味着真正實行逐步減購計劃。事實上，今年1月是該局一年來實際購入債券金額最少的一個月份。
自宣布減購債至今約一個半月時間以來，該局的資產負債表規模只增升了767.1億元，其中持有國庫券價值增升了441.44億元，MBS價值增升了352.88億元。
本來聯儲局逐步減購債是不利於、或無助於金銀價格的，但由此引致新興市場不安，卻重新觸發金銀兩市不同程度的避險功能，全球股市因聯儲局「收水」借機作較大調整，也導致部分資金重回金銀市場。不過，金市與美股呈反向關係的緊密程度，今年至今與去年整年已有不同，兩者的相關系數由原來的負0.88降至負0.58，表現在近期的金價回升比率低於美股的下跌比率。
從股市流出的資金主要是重回美債市場，去年至今美國長債價格持續從低位回揚，而今年至今金價與美債價維持同向關係。反過來，美債價回升（即孳息率下跌），令美元滙價疲軟。
有趣的是，最近竟出現「尾巴搖狗」的現象，商品價格不理會經濟增長出現疑問及聯儲局「收水」，倒過來因美元疲軟而明顯反彈，進而惠及金銀價格。此外，今年至今金價與美元是大致同向的，兩者相關系數為正0.34。
短線仍好 中期保留
很難說上述一連串市場現象是否正常，但估計還會維持一段時間，不過不會一直如此下去。敝欄注意到，美國貨幣流動性不但未有改善，且在繼續下滑。去年末季美國M1貨幣流動速率進一步降至6.506，M2流速亦降至1.566，而截至上月22日的M1貨幣乘數，在去年底微彈後再創0.699的新低水平，所以對金銀兩市就此重拾中長線升勢持保留態度。
中外眾多分析者目前傾向認為，金市可藉在1180元水平形成雙底回復上升。但金市倉位結構對此說似不是全面認同，最近大投機者的淨好倉量無疑是處於兩個月來的高水平，但整體未平倉合約量卻降至2009年9月以來的最低水平。
有鑑於此，估計金市短期尚向好，將有能力再挑戰1279元至1288元的阻力帶，甚至上試1294元，但1308元應是較大阻力，此是去年8月底下跌至年底後反彈50％的水平所在。至於短期支持在1252元至1256元地帶，關鍵支持在1238元。
銀市表現相對呆滯，但短期有可能挑戰20.45元水平，而20.6元仍是一個阻力。若克服此阻力可進一步上試20.9元，但難升越21.3元。至於短期支持分別在19.7元和19.45元，關鍵支持在19.1元。
本周發布的中國經濟數據，以及聯儲局新任主席耶倫首次在美國國會亮相等消息，將影響本周金銀價格。此外，請觀察商品價格反彈能否維持到本月下旬。
中國農曆新年前後兩星期，國際金融市場形勢有新變化，美國聯邦儲備局宣布進一步縮減每月購債規模至650億元（美元．下同）；而上周末公布的美國1月份非農業新職位增長，呈現連續兩個月低於預期。此外，中國市場在長假期後恢復正常交易。
金融市場對上述消息的反應是美股先續跌而後大幅反彈，美國10年期債券價格則先續升然後回順，美元滙價先反彈再而回跌，商品價格先微順續而明顯再彈升。
金銀價格則是先挫後揚，但上周收市價與兩周前相距不大。金價收市報1267.1元，兩周微跌1.8元；銀價收市報20.0元，兩周微升0.095元。這反映牛熊角力仍在持續，尚未有一方取得明顯優勢，只是牛方力圖爭回主動權。
各市場的互動關係
聯儲局在首次宣布縮減購債後約一個月，又宣布每月再減少100億元的購債規模，意味着真正實行逐步減購計劃。事實上，今年1月是該局一年來實際購入債券金額最少的一個月份。
自宣布減購債至今約一個半月時間以來，該局的資產負債表規模只增升了767.1億元，其中持有國庫券價值增升了441.44億元，MBS價值增升了352.88億元。
本來聯儲局逐步減購債是不利於、或無助於金銀價格的，但由此引致新興市場不安，卻重新觸發金銀兩市不同程度的避險功能，全球股市因聯儲局「收水」借機作較大調整，也導致部分資金重回金銀市場。不過，金市與美股呈反向關係的緊密程度，今年至今與去年整年已有不同，兩者的相關系數由原來的負0.88降至負0.58，表現在近期的金價回升比率低於美股的下跌比率。
從股市流出的資金主要是重回美債市場，去年至今美國長債價格持續從低位回揚，而今年至今金價與美債價維持同向關係。反過來，美債價回升（即孳息率下跌），令美元滙價疲軟。
有趣的是，最近竟出現「尾巴搖狗」的現象，商品價格不理會經濟增長出現疑問及聯儲局「收水」，倒過來因美元疲軟而明顯反彈，進而惠及金銀價格。此外，今年至今金價與美元是大致同向的，兩者相關系數為正0.34。
短線仍好 中期保留
很難說上述一連串市場現象是否正常，但估計還會維持一段時間，不過不會一直如此下去。敝欄注意到，美國貨幣流動性不但未有改善，且在繼續下滑。去年末季美國M1貨幣流動速率進一步降至6.506，M2流速亦降至1.566，而截至上月22日的M1貨幣乘數，在去年底微彈後再創0.699的新低水平，所以對金銀兩市就此重拾中長線升勢持保留態度。
中外眾多分析者目前傾向認為，金市可藉在1180元水平形成雙底回復上升。但金市倉位結構對此說似不是全面認同，最近大投機者的淨好倉量無疑是處於兩個月來的高水平，但整體未平倉合約量卻降至2009年9月以來的最低水平。
有鑑於此，估計金市短期尚向好，將有能力再挑戰1279元至1288元的阻力帶，甚至上試1294元，但1308元應是較大阻力，此是去年8月底下跌至年底後反彈50％的水平所在。至於短期支持在1252元至1256元地帶，關鍵支持在1238元。
銀市表現相對呆滯，但短期有可能挑戰20.45元水平，而20.6元仍是一個阻力。若克服此阻力可進一步上試20.9元，但難升越21.3元。至於短期支持分別在19.7元和19.45元，關鍵支持在19.1元。
本周發布的中國經濟數據，以及聯儲局新任主席耶倫首次在美國國會亮相等消息，將影響本周金銀價格。此外，請觀察商品價格反彈能否維持到本月下旬。
Jim Rickards: Gold Set for Massive Rally
Epoch Times: Mr. Rickards, please tell us about your new book, “The Death of Money,” coming out in April.
James Rickards: It’s both a prequel and a sequel to “Currency Wars,” my first book. It’s a prequel in a sense that “Currency Wars” opened with two chapters that describe a financial war game that took place in a top-secret weapons laboratory in 2009.
That was the first time the Pentagon had ever done a war game where the only weapons could be financial instruments—stocks, bonds, derivatives, currencies.
How did I get involved in it? I start out talking about earlier involvement in national security matters and that led up to the war game. That part is the prequel.
The sequel is that in “Currency Wars” I also had a lot of history. There were five chapters of history and I thought that was very important.
If you are going to talk about gold with the reader, a lot of times if you jump right into gold, people think you are sort of a nut. I find if you tell the story through history people can see gold in a context, and when you talk about it, it doesn’t seem quite so strange.
In my new book, “The Death of Money,” there is no reason to repeat the history—that’s all in “Currency Wars”—so it’s more forward leaning, and talks more about the future of the international monetary system, a coming collapse.
And not just a collapse, because a lot of people are running around talking doom and gloom, the end of the dollar and all that. I might even agree with that, but I don’t think it has a lot of content.
What I try to do is provide a more in-depth analysis describing what will come next, what the future international monetary system will look like.
I point out that the international monetary system has already collapsed three times within the last 100 years—1914, 1939, and 1971—and that another collapse would not be at all unusual. But it’s not the end of the world. It’s just that the major powers sit down and reform the system. I talk about what that reformation will look like.
So that’s the sequel or the continuation of the story looking over the horizon. Some stuff that is before “Currency Wars” and some stuff that is after. And other content on the contemporary situation in Europe and China, so I hope people enjoy it.
Epoch Times: What about gold?
Mr. Rickards: Gold has a number of vectors. It is technically set up for a massive rally. Let me separate the fundamentals from the technicals.
Fundamentally my target price for gold is in the range of $7,000 to $9,000 per ounce. That’s not something that will happen straight away, but it’s not a 10-year forecast either. It’s a three- to five-year forecast, for the price to rise by about five to six times.
Epoch Times: What is the analysis based on?
Mr. Rickards: It’s based on a collapse of confidence in the dollar and other forms of paper money. To restore confidence you have two means: You either flood the world with liquidity from the International Monetary Fund in the form of Special Drawing Rights [SDRs, a form of money issued by the IMF], or we return to a gold standard.
The flooding of the market with SDRs would be highly inflationary, so that by itself would drive gold to a higher level. If they go back to a gold standard they will have to take a non-deflationary price.
People say there is not enough gold in the world. The answer is there is always enough gold in the world. It’s just a question of the price. Now, at $1,300 an ounce, there is not enough gold to support world trade and finance. But at $10,000 per ounce, there is enough gold. It’s not about gold, it’s about the price.
If you go back to a gold standard you have to avoid the blunder that England made in 1925, by going back to the gold standard at the wrong price, which proved to be highly deflationary, and contributed to the Great Depression.
I’ve done the math on that and the non-deflationary price for a gold standard today is about $9,000 per ounce.
Epoch Times: What is your target price based on?
Mr. Rickards: It’s based on supporting the paper money supply with gold. That would be using M1 [paper notes, coins, and checking accounts] as the monetary base, with a 40 percent backing. If you were to use M2 [M1 plus savings accounts and money market funds] with a 100 percent backing, that would be $40,000 per ounce.
Epoch Times: Gold investors would make a killing!
Mr. Rickards: It wouldn’t mean gold would be worth any more [in real terms]; it would just mean the dollar has collapsed. But yes, you get more dollars for the ounce. Let’s call that the three- to five-year forecast.
For the year ahead, those fundamentals are unlikely to play out in a year. But the technicals can play out. Technically, gold is set up for a major rally based on the decline in floating supply.
Epoch Times: Does that have to do with the gold crash last year?
Mr. Rickards: There was 500 tons removed from the GLD [Spider Gold Trust ETF] warehouse by the bullion banks. That was a massive physical overhang removed from the market. People don’t really understand how the GLD ETF works. When people are buying the GLD, they are not buying or selling gold; they are buying and selling shares.
The gold sits in a warehouse and is only available to authorized participants. If you look at the list of authorized participants and look at the list of bullion banks, they are pretty much the same people: Goldman Sachs, Citigroup, JPMorgan, Morgan Stanley, Deutsche Bank, HSBC, etcetera.
Those banks have the ability to buy up shares, take the shares, cash them in, and get physical gold. And they were doing that and they were sending that gold to Shanghai to support trading and leasing on the Shanghai gold exchange. So when you take 500 tons and dump it on the market, that’s about 20 percent of the annual mining supply. It’s a massive physical injection.
The other factor is just outright manipulation, which is very visible in Comex future prices. I’ve seen some statistical analysis that demonstrates market manipulation beyond the shadow of a doubt.
Epoch Times: A double whammy …
Mr. Rickards: So the point is that between central bank manipulation through Comex futures and bullion banks dumping the physical, and by cleaning out the GLD warehouse, and also the Comex warehouse for that matter, there is a massive amount of gold that came on the market over and above normal supply trends, putting massive selling pressure on the Comex.
So that was a bad combination, but the problem is that it’s not sustainable.
Epoch Times: So what now?
Mr. Rickards: You can’t loot the warehouse twice. Once you take all the gold out, you can’t take it out again. JPMorgan’s vault is low, Comex’s vault is low, the GLD’s vault is low.
Epoch Times: Where is gold going?
Mr. Rickards: One of the big movements right now is gold moving from places like UBS, Credit Suisse, and Deutsche Bank to private storage such as G4S, ViaMAT, and Brink’s. That doesn’t increase the supply of gold at all. But what it does do is it decreases the floating supply available for trading.
If I have my gold at UBS, UBS typically has the right of rehypothecation. But if I take my gold and move it over to ViaMAT, it’s just sitting there and it’s not being traded or rehypothecated.
So, if I move gold from UBS to ViaMAT, there’s no more or less gold in the world. I’m still the owner, and it’s the same amount of gold. But from a market perspective, the floating supply has decreased.
The biggest player in that is China. China is buying thousands of tons of gold secretly through deception and using military intelligence assets, covert operations, etcetera.
Epoch Times: So why will gold rally then?
Mr. Rickards: There is a total supply of gold in the world. But to corner a market or squeeze a market, you don’t need to buy all the gold, you just need to buy the floating supply. Think of all the gold in the world, it’s about 170,000 tons. Think of a little sliver on top of it that is the floating supply available for trading.
Gold that’s in the Comex or JPMorgan or GLD vaults is available for trading. Gold purchased by the Chinese will not see the light of day again for the next 300 years, and is not available for trading. So with the gold going from West to East, and from GLD to China, the total amount of gold is unchanged, but the floating supply is declining rapidly.
This means that the paper gold that sits on top of the floating supply is becoming more and more unstable and vulnerable to a short squeeze, because there is not enough physical gold to support it. So that’s likely to collapse at one point and lead to a short squeeze and heavy buying.
Epoch Times: Mr. Rickards, thank you very much for the interview.
James Rickards is the author of the national bestseller “Currency Wars” and the forthcoming book “The Death of Money.” He is a portfolio manager at West Shore Group and an adviser on international economics and financial threats to the Department of Defense and the U.S. intelligence community.
The interview has been edited for brevity and clarity.
http://www.theepochtimes.com
1929年歷史重演
資本主義、社會主義與比特幣的共性
資本主義和社會主義這麼嚴肅的概念和去年大熱、前天剛經歷暴跌25%的比特幣有什麼共性？金融博客dizzynomics本月發布了一篇討論資本主義、社會主義和比特幣的博文，華爾街見聞在此與大家分享主要內容如下：
按一些社會主義者的說法，當資本主義無法時時自救的時候，必然會產生壟斷組織——卡特爾，一切都往壟斷方向發展。
一旦形成壟斷，就不可避免地會產生獨裁的高壓政府。
而根據英國著名作家奧威爾（George Orwell）在他的小說《動物莊園》（Animal Farm）裡表達的觀點，社會主義與資本主義都有可能催生獨裁。
一切都是閉合循環。
現實就是，在這個可以人為造成信息不對稱的世界，根本沒有無缺憾的競爭。在這個世界，設定入場成本就可以限制入場，庫存或者產能過剩讓一些當權者可以操縱市場清算價。
研究奧地利經濟學派的博客Social Democracy總結當代奧地利學派掌門人、美國經濟學家Israel Kirzner觀點指出：
奧地利學派強調反對政府對競爭的阻礙，這種對競爭的看法有個明顯的問題，那就是成本加成定價的行業。
這些行業通過溢價定價和有效利用過剩產能和庫存製造了進入市場的極大障礙，摧毀了奧地利學派所說的“自由進入”市場。
……
許多現代市場都由企業主導，那些企業早就在參與製造進入市場的障礙，並沒有受到長期利潤最大化的想法激勵。按新古典主義或奧地利學派的觀點就是如此。
相反，這些企業更賣力地避免開啟各自所在市場的新入口。 ……
有效地利用過剩產能是現代企業避免其他企業進入一個市場的有力方法，這樣的做法也充當了頑固的入市屏障。
聯繫到比特幣，以上也說明了為什麼比特幣必敗無疑。
比特幣就是卡特爾，是個對自身成員極不公平的組織。隨著這個系統裡欺騙的動機增加，系統對成員的壓榨也就更多。一切試圖榨取集體主義價值和利潤的行為莫不如此。
因為去中央化本就是集體主義的代名詞：大家不計任何回報，只是為了一個共同的目標而合作。
這樣的事當然應該稱道，可要是想方設法榨取這種集體行動的價值，那就不該叫好了。
集體主義性質屬於社會主義，一旦你開始在集體行動這整件事裡混入價值獎勵，就會轉變為資本主義。
互聯網去中央化的行動就是如此，比如比特幣。
比特幣的系統憑藉參與者的好意取得協同作用，後來為榨取這種行動的價值而採用了激勵機制，這不可避免地改造了原有的系統。
這可以解釋為什麼比特幣追求的去中央化會讓集體主義墮落。
比特幣不是免費的系統，它是專門試圖犧牲廣大用戶創造新等級和集權的系統。
目前它比傳統付款處理系統更有競爭力，但這樣的優勢可能不會持續多久。理由只有一個：最初它的成本均攤到每個成員身上，遍布廣大的礦工網，它的定價是有競爭力的。
可是，某些礦工已經比其他礦工實力更強，中央集權和壟斷也就不可避免出現。
現在有了比特幣挖礦的合作組織，加入這類組織的成本也增加了。想在競爭中獲勝，你要么就得加入這種卡特爾組織，要么就做一個實力更強大的礦工，不過也要付出很高的代價。
如果沒有監管，最終不是產生一家獨大的卡特爾，就是誕生一個權力至高無上的礦工。
如果是前者，就需要製定規矩管理卡特爾的成員，避免他們破壞這個卡特爾。這種方式讓人不免想起傳統企業的組織架構，卡特爾的成員就像企業裡的員工。
當然，加入這個卡特爾要負擔一定的成本，類似入會費。
如果是後者，就變成徹頭徹尾的獨裁，所有的入會費都由集權礦工的成本決定。
入會費可以變成一種沉重的負擔，像以前那些控制傳統支付方式的機構那樣收費。
比特幣系統和過去的系統沒什麼兩樣，都在為了打造新的一批精英而重新整頓。
至於維基百科和開源社區，那完全是另一回事，沒有可比性。
這些組織都是自願的集體行動，沒有誰企圖通過這樣的方式榨取價值。
每位成員貢獻都純屬自願，成本要么是成員自願承擔，要么由慈善捐助支持。
這些組織如果要讓系統內部產生一個創造價值的分支，必須保持非盈利的方式，只能讓創造的價值負擔運營的成本。
假如除去成本還有盈餘，那麼就應該讓每位成員利潤均霑，或者把利潤送出去。只有這樣，這些組織的整體系統才能保持誠信和活力。
比特幣先不論，climateerinvest博客倒是根據dizzynomics的以上內容對資本主義和社會主義做瞭如下歸納：
在社會主義體系，政界人士成為最富有的社會成員。
在資本主義體系，金融界人士成為最有政治影響力的社會成員。
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