石林:
美國聯邦儲備局4月份會議紀錄鷹派語調令金融市場略感意外，也為金、銀兩市的熊方提供了彈藥，金、銀價格回落3週：金價曾一度回落至1244美元，全週下跌1.65%；銀價亦曾抵16.33美元水平，整週挫3.5%。金銀期貨市場未平倉合約量均從最近令人震驚的高峰迴落，淨倉數量輕微減少，但仍處於頗極端狀態，其中金市的生產商淨沽倉量雖有所下降，但掉期交易商的淨沽倉量卻增加，兩者成為不相伯仲的熊方主力軍。對手當然是以對沖基金為主力軍的牛方，其持有的淨多倉量依然處於十分高水平。換言之，牛熊雙方的大搏鬥仍在繼續。聯儲局會議紀錄顯示，大部分成員認為經濟若持續改善，到6月份有可能加息，這令原本認為聯儲局主流屬鴿派的人感到意外，由此引髮美國債券價格偏軟，孳息率回穩，本已從低位轉穩的美元匯價繼續上揚，故有利於金、銀兩市的熊方持續施展壓力，部分投資者平倉離場。然而，不少分析者及投資者認為，聯儲局依然以經濟發展實際狀況作為決策的基礎，鑑於目前全球環境，美國在6月份再加息的可能性其實不太大。金、銀市牛熊雙方堅持自己的意見，故造成持倉量實際變動不大的局面，金、銀價格亦未因上述不利消息而出現一面倒大跌的行情。牛熊雙方續持己見主宰金、銀價格上落的關鍵因素其實複雜得多。只要看去年底美國多年來首次加息後，金、銀價格反大幅回升，可見利率回升不一定等於金、銀價格要下跌。個人對一面倒的觀點抱懷疑態度，例如惡性通脹重臨將支持金、銀價大幅回升，這看法是否有點過分？要知道直至今年首季，美國貨幣流動性仍創多年或歷來新低，何以會發生惡性通脹重臨呢？正由於經濟前景存在不確定性，市場見解亦不一，金、銀市牛熊雙方便發生拉鋸戰，價格亦出現短時間忽上忽落的行情，令人不易捉摸。金價經3週的回落，現於對數圖表上縮回到自2013年8月的中長線下降軌之下，令人對早前的向上突破是否成功生疑。即使是中短期的今年4月份向上突破，也出現類似現象。鑑於美債孳息率回穩，美元走勢依然偏穩，商品價格升勢已告放緩，特別是美長短債息的比率又回跌至接近今年3月的偏低水平，諒金銀市繼續修正前幾月龐大升幅的機會，大於實時再大升的可能性。故短期而言，估計1270美元已成阻力，甚至可能在1262美元即遇阻；市勢在1244美元水平仍有爭持，今年2月中至今的上升軌（約1227美元水平）是重要支持，而1207美元是中長線的好淡的關鍵。銀價15.8美元好淡關鍵銀價現仍維持在對數圖近兩年半下降軌內，但有回試該降軌（約15.8美元水平）的可能性。短期而言，17.2美元已成銀市的回升阻力，日內阻力或在16.9美元；估計16.35美元水平仍有爭持，16.15美元是重要支持，而15.8美元是好淡關鍵。
2016年5月23日星期一
黃金看俏
陸羽仁 BLOG 2016年5月23日
網誌分類: 經濟
美國4月CPI增長0.4%，略高於預期，較去年同期升1.1%，剔除能源和食品後的核心CPI較上月升0.2%，按年則升2.1%；而4月新屋開工數量達到年化117.2萬套的水準，高於預期；而4月工業生產增長0.7%，亦好預期的增長0.2%。
聯儲局官員近期頻頻出口術，話聯儲局加息合理，似乎在做佢非常善長的期望管理工作，目的係叫大家唔好以為見到4月非農就業數據好差，就以為今年最多只會在年底加一次息，甚至唔加息。
美股上週五企穩，標普500指數升0.6%至2052點，全個星期微漲0.3%，結束此前連續三周的下跌。標普500指數十大行業板塊中漲，能源板塊表現最好，上周漲1.5%，年內累計漲幅為9.8%，公用事業板塊表現最差，上周跌2.4%，但以全年計表現係一哥，累積升幅10.9%；年內最差的是金融股，累計下跌2.9%。公用股強顯示今年美股係一個弱市。
今年美股可以講係原地踏步，至威就係商品市場啦。雖然由5月初開始回落了超過4%，但年內仍有連18%進賬，遠跑贏股市。其他貴金屬的成績亦不弱，銀升了12.8%，白金（Platinum）亦有14.4%進賬。商品強和美元弱好有關係。
金價之所以造得咁好，係美元弱加全球利率不升所致。美元今年至5月以來走弱，反映美元兌6隻主要貨幣匯價的美元指數由去年底的98.63一路跌至5月初的92.63，大跌6.1%，最近的三個星期持續反彈，回升2.9%至上週五的95.33，金價呢段時間亦由高位每安士1306美元，回落至上週五的1252美元。
對於金市後市，市場普遍仍然樂觀，摩根大通認為，黃金預計今年會升到每安士1400美元，與現價比，仍有約12%的上升空間。
摩根大通私人銀行的 Solita Marcelli 解釋，由於全球央行正在不斷推印錢紙，甚至推行負利率政策，黃金將會成為替代貨幣。當美國國債及債券息率已經跌至歷史新低，在央行預期甚至出現負利率的前提下，債券價格會再跌，佢已經唔再係無風險資產，為了要分散投資及儲備的風險，央行會買入保值能力較高的黃金。黃金雖然無息收，甚至有儲存成本，在債券跌價的前題下，?黃金仍然有著數。另外，大戶亦會買入黃金來對沖現時比較波動的市場。
CNBC特約財經撰稿人Dennis Gartman對金市睇得更牛，佢認為黃金牛市已經出現，只要全世界重要的中央銀行都維持目前的寬松貨幣政策，黃金的上漲是不可避免的。不過，佢又提醒投資者，由於市場對聯儲局加息的預期升溫，利息上升，持金成本會上升，又因為黃金以美元計價，美元上漲，對金價會做成壓力。市場目前預期聯儲局今年會加兩至三次息，所以暫時應該唔好買金，即使要買，也要買以日元或者歐元計價的黃金。
無論如何，睇黃金長線長漲，即係睇淡美元和美息前景，估計美元反彈一輪之後，又會回軟。
網誌分類: 經濟
美國4月CPI增長0.4%，略高於預期，較去年同期升1.1%，剔除能源和食品後的核心CPI較上月升0.2%，按年則升2.1%；而4月新屋開工數量達到年化117.2萬套的水準，高於預期；而4月工業生產增長0.7%，亦好預期的增長0.2%。
聯儲局官員近期頻頻出口術，話聯儲局加息合理，似乎在做佢非常善長的期望管理工作，目的係叫大家唔好以為見到4月非農就業數據好差，就以為今年最多只會在年底加一次息，甚至唔加息。
美股上週五企穩，標普500指數升0.6%至2052點，全個星期微漲0.3%，結束此前連續三周的下跌。標普500指數十大行業板塊中漲，能源板塊表現最好，上周漲1.5%，年內累計漲幅為9.8%，公用事業板塊表現最差，上周跌2.4%，但以全年計表現係一哥，累積升幅10.9%；年內最差的是金融股，累計下跌2.9%。公用股強顯示今年美股係一個弱市。
今年美股可以講係原地踏步，至威就係商品市場啦。雖然由5月初開始回落了超過4%，但年內仍有連18%進賬，遠跑贏股市。其他貴金屬的成績亦不弱，銀升了12.8%，白金（Platinum）亦有14.4%進賬。商品強和美元弱好有關係。
金價之所以造得咁好，係美元弱加全球利率不升所致。美元今年至5月以來走弱，反映美元兌6隻主要貨幣匯價的美元指數由去年底的98.63一路跌至5月初的92.63，大跌6.1%，最近的三個星期持續反彈，回升2.9%至上週五的95.33，金價呢段時間亦由高位每安士1306美元，回落至上週五的1252美元。
對於金市後市，市場普遍仍然樂觀，摩根大通認為，黃金預計今年會升到每安士1400美元，與現價比，仍有約12%的上升空間。
摩根大通私人銀行的 Solita Marcelli 解釋，由於全球央行正在不斷推印錢紙，甚至推行負利率政策，黃金將會成為替代貨幣。當美國國債及債券息率已經跌至歷史新低，在央行預期甚至出現負利率的前提下，債券價格會再跌，佢已經唔再係無風險資產，為了要分散投資及儲備的風險，央行會買入保值能力較高的黃金。黃金雖然無息收，甚至有儲存成本，在債券跌價的前題下，?黃金仍然有著數。另外，大戶亦會買入黃金來對沖現時比較波動的市場。
CNBC特約財經撰稿人Dennis Gartman對金市睇得更牛，佢認為黃金牛市已經出現，只要全世界重要的中央銀行都維持目前的寬松貨幣政策，黃金的上漲是不可避免的。不過，佢又提醒投資者，由於市場對聯儲局加息的預期升溫，利息上升，持金成本會上升，又因為黃金以美元計價，美元上漲，對金價會做成壓力。市場目前預期聯儲局今年會加兩至三次息，所以暫時應該唔好買金，即使要買，也要買以日元或者歐元計價的黃金。
無論如何，睇黃金長線長漲，即係睇淡美元和美息前景，估計美元反彈一輪之後，又會回軟。
中国将投入10.6万亿人民币清理银行坏账
有事就有人包底，洗乜驚呀！
新闻配图
据英国《金融时报》最新报道，中国政府加大了清理中国银行[0.31% 资金 研报]体系中坏账的力度，国家主导的一个债转股计划的价值仅在过去两个月就飙升大约1000亿美元。
这一政府主导的计划迫使银行注销坏账，以换取困境企业的股权。万得资讯(Wind Information)数据显示，该计划的价值从3月初的大约1200亿美元飙升至4月底的2200多亿美元。
对于北京方面将付出多大努力对金融体系进行资本重组，行业观察人士展开了激烈辩论。目前不良贷款占中国各银行资产的百分比越来越高——有人估计高达19%。债转股的最新数据，以及去年启动的债务转债券，都显示一场低调纾困行动正在进行中。
“人们可以说，政府主导的资本重组已经在以一种非典型的方式发生，从而减少对字面意义上的资本重组的需要，”标普全球评级(S&P Global Ratings)常驻北京的金融机构总监廖强表示。
据中国媒体报道，2015年已经批准了高达4万亿元人民币（合6120亿美元）债务转债券，这种操作意味着，国有控股的银行把发放给地方政府关联企业的短期贷款，置换成期限长得多的债券。
分析师们迄今对债转股计划远远没有那么热情，他们表示，胁迫银行成为那些无力偿还贷款的企业的利益相关者，将在今年进一步拖累利润。廖强称，债转股非但没有支撑银行的稳定性，反而削弱了银行的稳定。
这些计划只是北京方面应对坏账的两条战线。
15年前曾经纾困中国四大国有商业银行的国有控股的资产管理公司，过去两年在购买坏账组合方面日趋活跃。由省级政府运营的地方资产管理公司在地方一级开展着同样的业务。
政府还重启了不良贷款证券化市场，本月的两笔交易价值5.34亿元人民币。这些努力甚至上了网，债务管理公司在中国最大的在线零售网站兜售不良贷款。
根据银行业监管机构的数据，中国各商业银行的平均不良贷款率官方数字在3月底达到1.75%。这标志着这些政府批准的数字连续第11个季度上涨。
但官方数据不包括所谓的僵尸贷款；一些分析师表示，规模大得多的僵尸贷款存量意味着，未来可能需要对银行进行一场更为正式的纾困。
里昂证券(CLSA)分析师郑名凯(Francis Cheung)估计，截至去年底，坏账占中国各银行贷款账簿的15%至19%，政府可能不得不向银行体系注入10.6万亿元人民币的新资本[0.00%]，相当于15.6%的国内生产总值(GDP)。
渣打银行(Standard Chartered)亚洲区首席经济学家马德威(David Mann)指出，“影子金融”（泛指规避监管的银行表外放贷）加剧了这个问题。不过，马德威在最近一份报告中提出，中国为了清理坏账而实施的众多计划，将减少对银行体系进行直接纾困的需要。
据里昂证券估计，中国的影子贷款总额在去年底达到大约40万亿元人民币，为GDP的59%左右。尽管其中有很大一部分并非不良贷款，但其不透明性意味着很难评估其风险，或对其进行监管。
2016年5月22日星期日
Gold is insurance against the bad guys hitting the reset button
It used to be
that when I spoke about gold, the folks that listened would look at me
as if I were speaking in some ancient foreign language that nobody could
understand. Lately, as I stand at my spot on trading floor of the New
York Stock Exchange, willing to talk the financial markets or baseball
with anyone who's also willing—more and more am I asked about gold.
Several times a week in fact.
In
case you missed it, when the World Gold Council released its Q1 data,
total demand for gold was up 21% year-over-year, largely due to demand
for investment purposes. There were yearly declines in demand from Q1
2015 to Q1 2016 for jewelry, technology purposes, and even purchases
made by central banks. Demand for investment purposes was up 122%
year-over-year. That says something. It says that I am not alone in my
thoughts. If the central banks (huge buyers in recent years) get started
again, watch out.
So, what
is it about this barbarous relic that it refuses to just go away
quietly? Is it money? Is it a commodity? Quite frankly, I think it is
both. There certainly are characteristics that even the most impure of
monetarists can not deny: store of wealth, divisibility, and even at
times of crisis, a medium of exchange.
If
you follow my notes, you know my current allocation toward gold is
7.5%. We took it to that level from 5% in late December, and we've
flirted with taking it even higher in recent weeks, though we have
dragged our feet. My thought is that if the physical (which is the best
way to own) were to make another run at $1,300 an ounce that you may
want to be at 10% for the long haul. Conversely, if the yellow metal
were to run the other way, I think you lighten up at $1,210 before
throwing away your profits from Q1.
Gold
is a very difficult asset to value in terms of fiat currency, and one's
short-term view on it really depends on global monetary policies.
Should the FOMC tighten in the near future—while the rest of the planet
is still easing—there will likely be a pullback in price, at least in
dollar terms. However, should there be no attempt to tighten—or maybe
even if there is a failed attempt—this could cut the beast loose. We've
all seen what this beast can do when it gets loose. Crazier things have
happened and can happen again.
Long-term?
I bet you saw how the IMF is pressuring the eurozone to allow Greece to
put off paying any interest or even principal on its bail-out loans
until 2040. Does anyone among us truly believe that the global debt
super-cycle will never come to an end? Not tomorrow, not next year. But
there will be a do-over at some point.
There
is a likelihood that gold will play a role in the next monetary system.
I look at this as insurance—a way to preserve a slice of your portfolio
should the bad guys ever hit that reset button.
2016年5月21日星期六
JP Morgan: Ultimately gold could wind up replacing sovereign bonds
We just received some incredible honest statements from Solita Marcelli, global head of fixed income, currencies and commodities at JPMorgan Private Bank (open only to wealthy investors with at least $5 million of investable assets).
She told CNBC this week that the bank’s analysts are expecting to see gold prices go higher for the rest of the year. ($1400 by the end of 2016). This is a huge shift from the bank’s position early this year when they expected an average annual price of $1,104 for 2016.
Marcelli points to the negative interest rates around the world and said, “Gold is looking more and more attractive every single day. As a non-yielding asset, it has a minimal storage cost, so when you compare it to negative-yielding assets, it actually has a positive carry…Gold is a great portfolio hedge in an environment where world government bonds are yielding at historically low levels.”
She continued by stating that ultimately ‘gold could wind up actually replacing sovereign bonds, long considered the safest of safe places for wealth, as the preferred safe haven for investors’.
She also expects central banks to continue buying gold to diversify their foreign exchange reserves.
http://www.thebigresetblog.com/index.php/jp-morgan-ultimately-gold-could-wind-up-actually-replacing-sovereign-bonds/
2016年5月17日星期二
事不寻常 高盛、索罗斯同时预言到一件事将发生
新闻配图
核心提示：高盛突然转而看好国际油价，实在事不寻常，预示短期美元汇率可能进一步走弱。与此同时，索罗斯第一季度将其公司在美国股市的投资额减少了三分之一以上，并购入世界最大黄金生产商巴里克黄金价值2.64亿美元的股票。
高盛的Damien Courvalin和Jeffrey Currie等分析师在5月15日的电子邮件报告中表示，原油市场从库存接近饱和转变为供不应求的时间比预期提前。
高盛将第二季度西德州中质原油(WTI)价格预测从每桶35美元调高至45美元，第三季度预测从40美元上调至49美元，第四季度预测从45美元提高到51美元，2016年全年预测从38.40美元调高至44.60美元。
尼日利亚供应受阻、伊朗增产以及需求增加等因素，正带动油价进入“转型阶段”。
实物市场“终于开始”再平衡；今年第一季度市场供应过剩140万桶/天，第二季度可能变成供应短缺7.1万桶/天。
在需求强劲和产量减少推动下，今年出现供不应求的局面比高盛3月中旬预测的时间提早了一个季度。高盛将2017年原油价格预测从每桶57.50美元调低至52.50美元。
事实上，高盛突然转而看好国际油价，实在事不寻常，预示短期美元汇率可能进一步走弱，除了为美国经济护航与推高通胀率、达到再次加息门槛之外，更重要的是打救美国页岩油企业，避免所发行高息债券（垃圾债券）连环“爆炸”。此时国际油价止跌回升，对美国利大于弊。
换而言之，弱美元政策重新抬头了。
与此同时，在本周五七大工业国(G7)会议举行在即之际，美国财政部长杰克卢突然发表狠话，直言对于日本推出导致日元贬值的措施感到不安，意味不会容许日元再大幅贬值，以免造成强美元影响美国经济表现，这可以解释近月日元兑美元易升难跌原因。
市场不宜对G7会议有太大期望，担心会后日元恢复强劲升势，兑美元可能会一举升破一百大关，势必触发新一轮日元套息交易拆仓活动，全球股市将会有难了，爆发拆仓套现浪潮，近日欧美日股市均不约而同出现抛售压力，资金已布局空仓了。
美股“末日审判”快到
值得注视的是，美国经济转弱，首季GDP增0.5%，并且为两年最慢增速，而企业季绩令人失望，普遍出现倒退，尤其是美国汽车销售已告见顶，难以再支持美股现水平企稳。
股王苹果公司股价已在去年见顶，无法推动美股向上，近日更失去全球市值最高宝座，可能预示“末日审判”快到了。
一大波大佬持仓公布
随着今年一季度结束，华尔街对冲基金最新持仓报告也在逐步披露。
周一公布的监管申报文件显示，亿万富翁乔治·索罗斯第一季度将其公司在美国股市的投资额减少了三分之一以上，并购入世界最大黄金生产商巴里克黄金价值2.64亿美元的股票。
索罗斯基金管理公司上季度末的美股持股下降了37%至35亿美元。索罗斯还披露持有105万SPDR黄金信托股份的看涨期权，这是跟踪黄金价格的交易所交易基金。
雷根时期的预算管理局局长(OMB)斯托克曼昨天公开表示看空美股，他说依统计数据，美国损耗盈余、汽车销售创高峰、存货比率、运费都反映美国经济比人们想像的还不稳定，他大胆地说：“在这一轮政治循环必定难逃经济衰退。”预言标普500下半年跌幅高达40%；所以今年11月美国总统不如选特朗普那样的破坏狂突破现状、用不同方式治理国家。
近来市场看空美股的言论不断，综观目前表态看跌的重量级投资人发言，两大主因是美国错误的经济政策、中国经济成长放缓。
有美国商界最危险的人物、企业狙击手之称的伊坎，四月宣称已清空了手中所有苹果股票，他并预期今年股市会先跌20%，如果政府实施刺激措施，可望再回涨20%。
投资大师罗杰斯说，投资者今年要为美联储过去错误的财政、货币政策买单。全球最大对冲基金桥水创始人达里奥认为，美联储在金融危机后，对市场释放大量资金、制造资产价格泡沫，导致政策逐渐失效；股市面临债务周期结束后的下跌风险。
债券天王格罗斯分析，主要的新兴市场经济衰退现象未见好转，加上各国央行提振经济效果甚微，市场已意识到全球经济成长缺乏动力，于是投资者大量抛售股票，他预言今年底美股跌深11%。
比美联储加息还大的风险
美国11月总统大选将很快成为继美联储加息时机与中国货币政策之后，又一个造成市场动荡的不确定性因素。
事实上，美国总统大选与英国脱欧公投结果成为美股以至全球股市动荡之源，尤其是一旦共和党特朗普当上总统，以其反全球化的立场，全球金融市场必然将会大乱，现时美股回落开始反映总统大选的风险溢价。
“Power Elites Are Now Speaking Openly About Revaluing Gold” – Jim Rickards
The power elites are now speaking openly about revaluing gold, which is just a form of currency devaluation…”
“Eighty-five years ago this month, Credit-Anstalt, by far the largest bank in Austria, collapsed. By that July, banks in Egypt, Germany, Hungary, Latvia, Poland, Romania, and Turkey had experienced runs. A banking panic hit the United States in August, though the sources of that panic may have been domestic. In September, banks in the United Kingdom experienced large withdrawals. The parallels to the 2008 collapse of the US investment bank Lehman Brothers are strong – and crucial for understanding today’s financial risks.
For starters, neither the collapse of Credit-Anstalt nor that of Lehman Brothers caused all of the global financial tumult that ensued. Those collapses and the subsequent problems were symptoms of the same disease: a weak banking system.
In Austria in 1931, the problem was rooted in the breakup of the Austro-Hungarian Empire after World War I, hyperinflation in the early 1920s, and banks’ excessive exposure to the industrial sector. By the time Credit-Anstalt collapsed, the world had been in deep recession for two years, banking systems in a number of countries had become fragile, and tensions were easily transmitted across national borders,with the gold standard exacerbating financial vulnerability by constraining central banks’ ability to act.”
. . . . . .
“Unable to rule out a new crisis, how well are we equipped to cope with one? The short answer is: not very.
In fact, if a financial crisis were to occur today, its consequences for the real economy might be even more severe than in the past.” . . . . . .
“In the early twentieth century, central banks could all devalue their currencies against gold, thereby raising the price level and escaping debt deflation. And, indeed, nine countries, including the UK, did exactly that in 1931, with another eight countries, including the US, following suit over the next five years. Today, however, currency depreciation is a zero-sum game.”
Submitted by Larry White:
Former BIS official Stefan Gerlach writes a new article appearing on Project Syndicate here. He notes that the potential for a major crisis still exists in the global financial system and has some interesting comments on gold. Below are some quotes from the article and then some added comments. See Jim Rickards comment on the article below.“Eighty-five years ago this month, Credit-Anstalt, by far the largest bank in Austria, collapsed. By that July, banks in Egypt, Germany, Hungary, Latvia, Poland, Romania, and Turkey had experienced runs. A banking panic hit the United States in August, though the sources of that panic may have been domestic. In September, banks in the United Kingdom experienced large withdrawals. The parallels to the 2008 collapse of the US investment bank Lehman Brothers are strong – and crucial for understanding today’s financial risks.
For starters, neither the collapse of Credit-Anstalt nor that of Lehman Brothers caused all of the global financial tumult that ensued. Those collapses and the subsequent problems were symptoms of the same disease: a weak banking system.
In Austria in 1931, the problem was rooted in the breakup of the Austro-Hungarian Empire after World War I, hyperinflation in the early 1920s, and banks’ excessive exposure to the industrial sector. By the time Credit-Anstalt collapsed, the world had been in deep recession for two years, banking systems in a number of countries had become fragile, and tensions were easily transmitted across national borders,with the gold standard exacerbating financial vulnerability by constraining central banks’ ability to act.”
. . . . . .
“Unable to rule out a new crisis, how well are we equipped to cope with one? The short answer is: not very.
In fact, if a financial crisis were to occur today, its consequences for the real economy might be even more severe than in the past.” . . . . . .
“In the early twentieth century, central banks could all devalue their currencies against gold, thereby raising the price level and escaping debt deflation. And, indeed, nine countries, including the UK, did exactly that in 1931, with another eight countries, including the US, following suit over the next five years. Today, however, currency depreciation is a zero-sum game.”
Click here to read the full article on Project Syndicate
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