- 帖文引述SD Bullion總裁Tyler Wall指銀批發市場如馬戲團般混亂，90%銀幣（如舊流通幣）竟無煉廠或批發商出價，此情況前所未見。
- 成因包括投資者轉向新鑄銀幣、熔煉舊銀需時綁住信貸額度、融資短缺迫使批發商速售存貨，導致對沖成本飆升限制庫存。
- 儘管美國銀鷹幣交貨延遲，部分二手產品仍低於現貨價，但新投資者興趣創紀錄，市場顯示強勁潛力而非崩潰。
這段由 SD Bullion 執行長 Tyler Wall 博士發布的內容，揭露了當前白銀實體市場中極為罕見的**「流動性背離」**現象。
雖然市場對實體白銀的需求強勁，但批發層面卻出現了運作失靈。以下是內容的關鍵要點分析：
1. 批發市場流動性枯竭（信貸緊縮）
* 信貸額度觸頂： 許多大型批發商與參與者的信貸額度已接近極限。這意味著即使市場有需求，業者也沒有足夠的資金（槓桿）來吸納更多庫存。
* 資金周轉率過快： 市場資金流動速度極高，顯示業者急於變現以維持營運，而非長期持有。
2. 90% 舊銀幣（Junk Silver）乏人問津
文中最令市場震驚的點：批發商與精煉廠對 90% 舊銀幣出現「無報價（No Bid）」現象。
* 精煉廠拒收： 精煉廠不再像過去那樣積極回收舊銀幣並將其熔化重鑄。
* 時間成本與信貸壓力： 將舊銀幣送往精煉廠到變現的時間差（Time Lag），會鎖死業者原本就緊張的信貸額度。
* 消費偏好轉變： 新手投資者（New Retail Investors）傾向購買全新鑄造的銀幣，而非具備歷史感的舊流通幣。
3. 持有成本（Hedging & Carry）飆升
* 避險成本高昂： 維持對沖（Hedging）帳戶的成本大幅上漲，這使得實體商持有大量庫存的風險與代價變得非常昂貴。
* 被迫拋售： 由於缺乏融資管道，部分批發商被迫在獲得庫存後立即低價拋售，導致部分次級產品（Secondary Products）的價格甚至低於現貨價格（Spot Price）。
4. 價格與供需的矛盾現象
* 供需錯位： 儘管一邊是批發商在低價清倉（因為缺錢），另一邊卻是主流產品（如美國鷹揚銀幣）的交貨延遲與短缺正在醞釀。
* 市場深度不足： 執行長提到，雖然某些產品價格低迷，但只要他一通電話就能掃光這些庫存，這說明目前的「低價」並非因為供應充足，而是因為買方（批發商）缺乏承接能力。
5. 市場前景與投資心理
* 投資者結構： 雖然新投資者興趣達到歷史高峰，但大多數人對貴金屬市場的運作機制（如溢價、精煉、信貸）仍缺乏理解。
* 牛市潛力： Tyler Wall 認為，在公眾還未完全理解市場的情況下，需求就已經如此強勁，這預示著白銀市場的漲勢「還有很長的路要走」。
💡 總結觀點
這是一份典型的**「流動性危機」告誡**。它告訴我們，實體白銀的零售價格與批發價格正在脫鉤。如果你是投資者，這代表：
* 實體銀的「溢價」可能在未來大幅波動。
* 90% 舊銀幣的變現能力（流動性）在極端市場情況下可能不如新銀幣。
* 批發層面的混亂通常是市場劇烈波動的前兆。
🚨SILVER WHOLESALERS NO BID ON 90% SILVER? 🚨
🎪SD Bullion CEO Says “Wholesale Silver Market Has Become AN ABSOLUTE CIRCUS!” 🎪
“This week was pretty incredible. As I was alluding to last night, the wholesale markets were an absolute circus.
It’s becoming increasingly obvious that many large participants are either at - or very near- their maximum credit terms. Money velocity is extremely high.
What really stood out was the complete lack of bids from many refiners and large wholesalers on 90% silver.
That’s something we have never seen since our inception - in any market- let alone one with record demand from a revenue standpoint.
Why? There are a few theories floating around, but the one I tend to agree with is this: 90% silver is increasingly not being accepted by refiners to be melted into other forms.
There’s a surge of new investors who want newly minted coins rather than older circulation silver, & the time lag involved in sending 90% to a refiner ties up already-stressed credit lines until the metal is melted and payment is received.
At the same time, a lack of available financing is forcing other wholesalers to dump inventory as quickly as they get it.
So even though a coin and bar shortage is clearly brewing - & deliveries on products like American Silver Eagles are getting delayed - we’re still seeing some secondary products trade under spot.
That’s despite the fact that SD Bullion could literally wipe out that inventory (and we have been) with a single phone call, simply because there’s no real depth behind it.
On top of that, the cost to maintain hedging accounts has skyrocketed, which further limits how much inventory firms can carry on their shelves.
Going into the weekend, predicting SD Bullion’s sales volume (and therefore our long position) was a complete wildcard.
New investor interest has never been higher - yet paradoxically, very few people still have any real understanding of precious metals.
To me, that suggests this market still has legs.
Enjoy your weekend and we will see everyone back for the Sunday open.”
Dr. Tyler Wall
President & Founder, SD Bullion, Inc.
https://x.com/silvertrade/status/2014839964849127828?s=46&t=rt3XmYmqG_eB8lRu6xQtZg
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