華府「犧牲」美滙托股債

 華府「犧牲」美滙托股債 - 潘國光

標 準普爾表示由於對美國削赤及減債前景不樂觀，故調低其信貸展望至「負面」。本欄讀者應該不會感驚訝，在過去的一年多，筆者已不斷提及美國潛在的負債及信貸 風險已直逼甚至超越南歐諸國水平。事實上，美國聯邦政府負債在這幾天至幾星期內將觸及14.3萬億美元的發債上限，相信在未來的兩至三個月，國會及兩黨將 繼續上演削赤爭辯之鬧劇。

標普下調美國信貸展望，將有利共和黨及茶黨等所提倡的削赤方案，同時亦令總統奧巴馬左右為難。預料國會就財政預算的辯論，將被一再拖長，發債上限料再次被提高，惟最終就未來幾年達成的所謂削赤金額，將只是微不足道。

上 周美股就標普調低美國信貸展望的第一個反應是下跌，市場覺得，若國會真的大刀闊斧地削赤，將嚴重打擊經濟增長前景。但後來再想深一層，白宮及國會現在談論 的所謂削減開支，大部份都是關乎2015年以後的預算，在2011年起的5年內，赤字將仍維持在過萬億美元的歷史水平。 

因此，華府續托股市，是維護當前經濟復蘇的必然選擇。因為有經濟增長就有繼續花錢的空間，但若同時要維持國債市場的正常運作，唯一辦法是「犧牲」美元滙價，透過貨幣貶值減少實質負債、引發通脹，從而製造資產價格上升的假象。

有評論指，聯儲局於六月後可能會暫停推出新一輪量化寬鬆政策(QE3)，而只把之前QE1及QE2所買入的債券續期，令未來每月大約仍有170億美元的到期金額可以用來支持新發債券，即所謂QE2.5。

推QE3機會仍在
然而，筆者認為此規模並不足以滿足現時每月至少1200億美元的發債需求。正如債券大王格羅斯所言，美國國債說穿了只不過是一個超級的「龐氏騙局」。 

因此，除非聯儲局打算透過海外賬戶在未來數月秘密繼續印鈔買債，否則，現時看來，六月後隨即需要推出QE3的機會仍不能完全被抹煞，難怪無論外圍發生甚麼大小事情，近日美滙走勢還是依然故我地一直下跌，筆者相信，美元在年底前出現信心危機式的崩盤風險已變得越來越大了。 

奧巴馬籲兩黨攜手削赤

東方日報


美國總統奧巴馬為期三日的削赤方案推銷之旅周四「曲終人散」，而他昨在加州帕洛阿爾托的Facebook總部舉行市民大會（town-hall meeting）時坦言，現時美國財赤劣況已惡化至不能忍受的地步，正面臨「關鍵時刻」，呼籲共和民主兩黨務必盡快就削赤方案達成共識，否則美國財政狀況 勢岌岌可危，甚至有出現債務違約的風險。

經濟師倡採高通脹減債

對於早前由眾議院預算委員會主席瑞安（Paul Ryan）制訂的預算案，奧巴馬批評指其預算案內容頗為急進，有點「目光短淺」，並非如外界形容般「有膽識」。
正當華府對如何削赤大感頭痛之際，彭博社經濟師佩恩及巴克利發表報告「獻計」指，在經濟成本高企下，容許美國經濟出現如七十年代時年均8.1%的高通脹，或是美國削債方法之一，甚至較以加稅及削減開支等方法削赤更為有利。
上述報告估計，若華府不採取削債措施，料其財赤佔國內生產總值（GDP）比例，將於二○二○年時由年底的69.4%升至84.9%，但假如美國容許高通脹，料上述比例將於二○二○年時降至61.8%。
另美國經濟發展委員會發表聲明指，一群商界領袖相當支持美國盡快推出長遠削赤方案，並認為所有稅務及開支政策均可當作削赤計劃的「籌碼」，而且不會對之加以反對，或反映商界組織亦認為，華府盡快制訂削赤計劃是當務之急。

無人想孭鑊, 最好加限額喇.....Obama話後悔當初反對raise debt limits, 唔知選民會唔會都後悔選佢做總統呢?

http://voguishwoman.blogspot.com/2011/04/us-default-could-be-doomsday-option-for.html#comments

(AP) – April 24

WASHINGTON (AP) — The United States has never defaulted on its debt and Democrats and Republicans say they don't want it to happen now. But with partisan acrimony running at fever pitch, and Democrats and Republicans so far apart on how to tame the deficit, the unthinkable is suddenly being pondered.

The government now borrows about 42 cents of every dollar it spends. Imagine that one day soon, the borrowing slams up against the current debt limit ceiling of $14.3 trillion and Congress fails to raise it. The damage would ripple across the entire economy, eventually affecting nearly every American, and rocking global markets in the process.

A default would come if the government actually failed to fulfill a financial obligation, including repaying a loan or interest on that loan. The government borrows mostly by selling bonds to individuals and governments, with a promise to pay back the amount of the bond in a certain time period and agreeing to pay regular interest on that bond in the meantime.

Among the first directly affected would likely be money-market funds holding government securities, banks that buy bonds directly from the Federal Reserve and resell them to consumers, including pension and mutual funds; and the foreign investor community, which holds nearly half of all Treasury securities.

If the U.S. starts missing interest or principal payments, borrowers would demand higher and higher rates on new bonds, as they did with Greece, Portugal and other heavily indebted nations. Who wants to keep loaning money to a deadbeat nation that can't pay its bills?

At some point, the government would have to slash spending in other areas to make room for any further sales of Treasury bills and bonds. That could squeeze payments to federal contractors, and eventually even affect Social Security and other government benefit payments, as well as federal workers' paychecks.

A default would likely trigger another financial panic like the one in 2008 and plunge an economy still reeling from high joblessness and a battered housing market back into recession. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke calls failure to raise the debt limit "a recovery-ending event." U.S. stock markets would likely tank — devastating roughly half of U.S. households that own stocks, either individually or through 401(k) type retirement programs.

Eventually, the cost of most credit would rise — from business and consumer loans to home mortgages, auto financing and credit cards.

Continued stalemate could also further depress the value of the dollar and challenge the greenback's status as the world's prime "reserve currency."

China and other countries that now hold about 50 percent of all U.S. Treasury securities could start dumping them, further pushing up interest rates and swelling the national debt. It would be a vicious cycle of higher and higher interest rates and more and more debt.

The U.S. has long been the global standard for financial stability and creditworthiness, with Treasury securities seen as a fail-safe investment. But after the near-shutdown of the U.S. government and a new credit-rating report this week questioning the country's fiscal health, Treasury bills and bonds are losing luster.

If there is a debt limit deadlock, the government by this summer could find itself legally unable to borrow more money to pay its bills, beginning with interest on its debt and gradually extending to day-to-day federal operations. At some point, the government would have to decide which bills to pay and which to put aside.

The debt ceiling will be hit on or around May 16, the Treasury Department says. Unlike the threatened government shutdown, the impact would start slowly, but then build mightily until the damage would be so dire that few political leaders or economists even want to contemplate it. The day of reckoning could likely be delayed at least until early July with creative bookkeeping.

When the House first rejected the Bush administration's $600-billion bank bailout in September 2008, the Dow Jones industrials went into a dizzying 778-point tailspin. A whiff of a possible similar stock market collapse came on Monday with a sharp selloff on Wall Street when the Standard & Poors lowered its outlook on U.S. debt to "negative" from "stable," possibly a first step toward a possible downgrade of America's coveted AAA credit rating.

"We haven't downgraded it. We just said, if nothing happens, we may have to," said S&P chief economist David Wyss. He said a government default remains uncharted territory, "which is one reason why it's not a good idea to hit the debt ceiling."

"There's reason to worry," said Wyss. "But my best guess is that we sort of muddle through this. Cuts will be made, they'll be too little too late, but at least they will be enough to maintain a triple-A rating."

"It's another game of chicken. And this time there are Mack trucks going at each other, not bumper cars. This is a biggie," said American University political scientist James Thurber. But he predicted that, as in the past, "there will be an accommodation. They will avoid a crash."

Investment bank J.P. Morgan Chase recently concluded that any delay in making an interest or principal payments by the Treasury "even for a very short period of time" would have large "long-term adverse consequences for Treasury finances and the U.S. economy." The analysis is being circulated on Capitol Hill by supporters of raising the debt limit.

"If anyone wants to push that button, which I think would be catastrophic and unpredictable, I think they're crazy," JP Morgan CEO Jaime Dimon said recently of those seeking to block raising the debt limit.

House Speaker John Boehner and most other GOP leaders agree on the need to raise the debt limit — and don't want to be held responsible for a new financial meltdown. Still, they want Obama to make more concessions on spending cuts than he has done thus far. That isn't sitting well with liberal Democrats, who think Obama has already given too much ground.

One reason the two parties can't find common ground: they can't even agree on what's causing high deficits. Democrats mostly blame it on policies of George W. Bush: two wars, tax cuts that continue to benefit the wealthy and an expensive prescription drug program. Republicans see government spending as the culprit, particularly on Obama's watch.

In fact, the main reason is the deep recession, which slashed tax revenues and led to hundreds of billions of dollars in recession-fighting spending by both Bush and Obama. The debt was $9 trillion in late 2007 before the start of the Great Recession, and it's just a sliver under the $14.3 trillion limit today.

Even though GOP leaders say they want to avoid more economic chaos, there is a large crop of tea-party aligned Republicans threatening to refuse to raise the cap under almost any circumstance. Polls suggest a large percentage of Americans oppose raising the debt limit.

The debt limit has been raised ten times over the past decade. Obama voted against Bush's debt-limit increase in 2006 as a senator, accusing Bush of "a leadership failure." Obama recently apologized for "making what is a political vote as opposed to doing what was important for the country."

5,000美元金價和300美元銀價是可信的數字

http://www.midasletter.com/index.php/5000-gold-and-300-silver-are-coming/


發佈時間：2011年4月20日上午9:00（美國東部時間） 來源：Kitco金拓中文網(www.kitco.cn)
問：過去十年，CNBC、索羅斯、巴菲特以及所有其他主流投資評論員對金價有什麼共同的看法？
回答：他們的看法都錯了。 每一次，每一年。如果你持續把注意力放在這種錯誤的情報中的話，那麼你就會虧錢了。絕對地，毫無疑問，我可以保證。 他們每一年對未來金價了無生趣的評論被證明是完全的瞎編亂造，不過年復一年、日復一日，成百萬的讀者、觀察員、聽眾卻會繼續收聽另一則可怕的錯誤信息。
這些天，許多永恆的錯誤預測，預測黃金的繁榮期將結束的言論完全被來自屋頂大​​量嚷嚷金價將更加走高的聲音所淹沒。其中90%都是從眾心理。最早時候 1,000美元金價的預測在兩年前看來是完全荒謬的，但是現在看來還是相當保守的。 除了那些從眾的人，有很多吸引眼球的原因來支撐金價的走高，更加重要地是，金價和銀價比率正在漸漸縮窄。一年前，金銀比率為63，現在比率則為35，一年 時間幾乎跌了一半。 按照純粹的表現看，去年金價顯示了堅實的26.51%上漲，白銀更是遠遠超越黃金的表現，上漲123.55%，並且成為去年表現最佳的商品。就貴金屬的吸 引力來說，這一表現的影響戲劇性地改變了投資者的感知。
隨著這兩種貨幣金屬價格的上漲，以及它們價格差異的縮小，投資者越來越希望了解它們的價格將會如何變化。它們的價格會繼續顯著上漲嗎，或者它們的價格上漲 曲線會有持平點並且隨後上升嗎？這一上升價格曲線中會有一個將急速下滑的點嗎？白銀和黃金的價格曲線會在哪裡匯聚？金銀的適當比率又是多少？我們購買實 物、金銀幣、ETFs、黃金基金、高級礦業股或者次級勘探股嗎？哪種是最安全的？哪種是最有風險的？ 首先讓我們來考慮一下比率的問題。


如果標題中所示的金​​銀率成為了現實的話，那麼這意味著只需要16盎司的白銀就可以買1盎司的黃金。如果比率曲線繼續 以目前的速率傾向於白銀上升的話，那麼再過一年，金銀比率就將達到16:1。 據約翰·斯蒂芬森的《商品投資》顯示，全球白銀的數量是黃金的16倍。 所以單從這一基礎來看，正確的價格比率應該是16:1。白銀多頭指出由於其廣泛的工業、攝影和珠寶的應用，白銀在貨幣金屬中是獨一無二的。


白銀協會2009年統計數據顯示全球白銀的供應量或多或少等同於對白銀各種種類的需求，包括製造和貴金屬鑄造。白銀的政府持有在2009年下跌了 1,370萬盎司，達到了10幾年來最低的水平。俄羅斯再一次占到了大部分的政府銷售，而中國和印度在2009年的市場參與度並不大。關於中國，金田礦產 服務公司表示經過了幾年的大量拋售以後，其白銀庫存顯著的下滑了。 如果金銀比率朝向16:1的話，那麼這意味著近期的價格區間為90-100美元/盎司。 如果金價朝向5,000美元/盎司，金銀價格比率依然為16:1的話，那麼白銀的價格將為312.50美元/盎司。 有什麼因素會支撐金價達到5,000美元的呢？ 那就是美元。


整個全球金融體系現在陷於這樣一個情況，那就是我們除了允許美國繼續大量印製美鈔外，別無他法。現在並沒有單一的政治力量或者聲音來對這一瘋狂舉動做些阻 攔，這一瘋狂舉動正在日復一日的進行著，儘管金融主流媒體傳來了一致的抗議。 這就意味著價格會成比例的增長。通脹是為了經濟獲得增長，貨幣無限擴張的直接結果。因此，黃金和白銀將是這種政策的直接受益方。 與此同時，美國國債債權人和大量資產賬戶的投資者正在尋求退出他們的美元持有。


全球最大債券基金PIMCO（太平洋投資管理公司）以及其管理者比爾·格羅 斯現在正在做空美元。中國已經重申將減持美國國債。這也為其他主權國家發出了一個信號，那就是應該減持美元。

美股可再漲7% 金銀處在井噴階段

 on.cc

【on.cc 東方互動 專訊】 《巴倫週刊》稱，標普首席技術策略師 Mark Arbeter表示，美國股市的主要指標，已經突破始於4月初高點的下行趨勢。他在周四致客戶的報告中表示，標普技術分析人員目前認為，美國股市短期內有望創出新的反彈高位。

他稱，主要指數的走勢，符合該機構的看漲立場；該機構還認為，那些高貝塔值或週期性類股將再度領漲；又認為，受貨幣、財政以及匯率因素的刺激，股市的漲勢將延續至5月份。

Arbeter目前預計，標普500指數有望再漲7%左右，而後可能會在1,430點附近遭遇較大阻力。

他並認為，黃金和白銀會進一步走高。他稱，鑒於美元已持續走低，黃金、白銀以及其他許多大宗商品的價格，都將迎來井噴，會較目前水平大幅走高。

Arbeter表示，銀價似乎已經進入井噴階段，應突破每安士50美元。又指，銀價在當前週期，即使漲至每安士65美元的高點，也不會感到意外。該機構認為金價或許可以一路上漲至每安士1,650-1,800美元，屆時金價的漲勢將暫告一段落。

In the Bunker at JP Morgan.wmv

又來啦

BRICS seeks revamp in global monetary system

http://www.deccanherald.com/content/153530/brics-signs-deal-using-own.html Sanya (China), April 14 , (IANS) :

Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa - the BRICS group of fastest growing economies - Thursday called for a revamp in the global monetary system and signed a pact to use their own currencies instead of US dollar in issuing credit or grants to each other.

The path-breaking agreement was signed at the 3rd BRICS summit here attended by Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh and Presidents Hu Jintao of China, Dilma Rousseff of Brazil, Dmitry Medvedev of Russia and Jacob Zuma of South Africa. "Our designated banks have signed a framework agreement on financial cooperation which envisages grant of credit in local currencies and cooperation in capital markets and other financial services," economist turned politician Manmohan Singh told the media with other BRICS leaders. But the agreement is confined to credit and not trade. BRICS economies hold 40 percent of the world's currency reserves, the majority of which is still in US dollars. Under a tight security blanket, the BRICS summit was held in the coastal city of Sanya in China's Hainan island following which the leaders jointly addressed the media but did not take questions from journalists. In their restricted session, the Indian prime minister and four presidents deliberated on the international situation and the financial, development, climate and security issues. Hu said the world economy was undergoing profound and complex changes. "The era demands that the BRICS countries strengthen dialogue and cooperation (in this direction)." Manmohan Singh, who also addressed the plenary session of the summit, said: "The quality and the durability of the global economic recovery process depends to a great measure on how the BRICS economies perform." The grouping is expected to have a healthy global presence in the future as its member-countries are projected to contribute 48 percent to the global economy in the next decade. At present they account for 40 percent of the world's population and 20 percent of the global Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Calling for stronger regulation in commodity derivatives to arrest volatility in food and energy prices, the leaders said the rising inflation was risking the recovery of the world economy post the 2008 downturn. "Recognizing that the international financial crisis has exposed the inadequacies and deficiencies of the existing international monetary and financial system, we support the reform and improvement of the international monetary system, with a broad-based international reserve currency system providing stability and certainty," they said in a joint declaration. But they didn't specifically mention any currency like the US dollar or euro -- to be replaced as international trading medium. Reserve currency, held in significant quantities by governments and institutions as part of their foreign exchange reserves, is also the international pricing currency for products traded on global market and commodities such as energy products or bullion.