2011年10月31日星期一

Move on Over! Royal Canadian Mint to issue a REAL gold backed certificate!

It seems that the RCM now wants a piece of what seems is the investment of the decade, but is doing it much differently then SLV/GLD.

If I'm a betting man, which I am, I would be betting that the Royal Canadian Mint is setting itself up as the go to elite "paper" certificate exchange program.  They quote, "Unlike other gold investment products, the purchaser of an ETR owns the actual gold rather than a unit or share in an entity that owns the gold." Hint hint SLV and GLD.
Basically saying, move on over ETF's- run by the Morgue and other fraudulent non-phyzz-backed garbage- the world is figuring out you are full of shit with SLV and GLD.
Would you rather be holding paper backed by a world class Mint, or entities that openly naked short and dismantle/manipulate any form of free market trading in the precious metals? (depends where you are from as these two entities may be in fact both be full of shit when TSHTF).
Choose you paper certificates wisely and remember: If you don't hold it in your own hand, YOU DO NOT OWN IT.
Prepare accordingly.
Click here for entire article

巿勢回復中性

石林

說起來確有趣,每逢「木星衝」(Jupiter Opposition)前後一段期間,金價偏好機率真的是較大。木星在上周六最接近地球,午夜時分明亮地高懸在天頂附近,而該周金價擺脫較早前徘徊在十字路口的市勢,重越1703元(美元.下同)關鍵阻力,持續漲升至1752元,周末以1743.4元收市,全周大幅回升6.17%。

其實,「木星衝」與金價升跌應無特別關係,只是兩者的周期時間約略地近似,故不時便出現上述現象,且較集中在某些年份附近。此外,上周金價回升亦與金市的季節性因素有關,按過去三十二年的統計,金價每年12月份和1月份表現通常較強,而今年實際表現是較該統計領先約六個星期。 

但金價大幅回揚的現實原因,先是因為歐洲主權債務危機惡化引致的資金避難,後是歐盟領袖同意擴大歐洲金融穩定設施的規模,意味着更多的寬鬆政策,市場對風險資產的興趣回升,金價與歐羅及股市齊升。

去槓桿化見遏止

上述市場行情無疑是現實,但有關的解釋卻有點牽強。例如,歐盟峰會的新協議是否就可以真正解決歐債問題呢?如果就這麼容易,為什麼不早就施行呢?此外,歐洲採取更多寬鬆政策,為什麼歐羅反而大升呢?

敝欄現只就個人較理解的問題進行討論。上期請各位留意金銀兩市的倉量變化去估計市勢的演變,因為較早前數周兩市的未平倉合約量持續下降到低水平,大投機者的淨好倉量或者是業者的淨沽倉量降至多年來的低點。此情況只有兩個可能:其一是按此「去槓桿化」的趨勢繼續發展下去,市勢由牛轉熊;其二是大投機者在此時重新入市,因牛市是再續,這是最好的入市時機。

就我們所見,事態是按後一個方向發展,即投機資金重新入市,雖然迄今不能說是大規模,但已經遏止了「去槓桿化」的趨勢。這一點在銀市尤為明顯,COMEX期銀市場的未平倉合約量從較早前少於十萬張的低點,回升到現在的逾十一萬張水平;大投機者的淨好倉量也止住了跌勢,上周企住一萬一千張水平。期金也有相同迹象,未平倉合約量力守四十三萬張水平就不再跌,大投機者淨好倉量也重返十二萬九千張水平。

中性心態看市勢

從上述倉量最新變化說明金銀兩市未有向熊的方向進一步發展,維持着牛的狀態,而牛的基礎是兩市迄今仍保持對數圖上的近三年上升軌不破──金市目前是1555元水平、銀市目前是26.3元水平。最近走勢圖形的變化也令兩市沒有向熊的方向進一步下滑,例如金價在前周跌至1604元便止步回揚,使原來利淡的「上升楔形」變成中性的「上升通道」,上周該通道呈向上突破;類似地,銀價在前周跌至29.93元亦止跌,使圖形變成中性的「狹長三角形」,去周亦升破33.5元的阻力,最高漲至35.65元。

形勢轉變使看好的意見再度佔上風,例如說金價在年底可見2000元,但個人迄今仍認為中期市勢暫只是回復中性而已,金市倉量變化僅屬止跌,仍在過去三年低一大檔次的空間活動而已。短期而言,金價在1755元略有阻力,但在上文說的「上升通道」頂1706元附近將有支持,1676元是更大的支持;1772元則是下一個回升目標及阻力,1791元是更大阻力。

類似地,銀市在35.65元略有阻力,而33.5元和33.1元現分別變成支持;36.9元至37.5元則為下一個上升目標及回升阻力地帶,38.9元是更大阻力。

金市在冬季若未能刷新歷史高價,則要提防出現類似8月銀市留下「第二高位」的市勢,故宜以中性心態看待之。

2011年10月30日星期日

紅色警報:中國的金銀需求將砸散美元

RED ALERT:CHINA DEMAND FOR SILVER & GOLD WILL CRASH THE U.S DOLLAR OCT. 2011





Feds order google to take down videos-Got kill switch?





Worried About Silver? Listen to Eric Sprott’s Stump Speech

by John Rubino on October 21, 2011
Hedge fund manager Eric Sprott’s speech at this week’s Silver Summit turned a room full of nervous precious metals owners into pumped-up silver buyers. Some of the highlights are posted below, and here’s a link to a recent Financial Sense interview where he makes many of the same points.
  • The US Mint sells about the same dollar amount of gold and silver coins, which means it sells 50 ounces of silver for every ounce of gold. It’s more or less the same story at GoldMoney and Sprott Money.
  • Ten times more silver than gold is produced each year, and the ratio in the earth’s crust is 15:1, so how can the price be 50:1? Expect a return to the historical norm of 15:1, which implies that silver will outperform gold.
  • The demand/supply picture has seen a 380 million ounce per year positive swing — in a 900 million ounce market. Where is the silver coming from?
  • The paper silver markets trade a billion ounces a day and the world only produces 900 million in a year. The amount available for settlement of these futures contracts is something like 1.5 million ounces, ludicrously little compared to the amount of paper.
  • “On the physical side I’m seeing only buyers.”
  • “There are a lot more people who can afford a one-ounce silver coin than an ounce of gold.”
  • Gold will be a reserve currency and silver will also play a role.
  • “We tried to buy 15 million ounces of silver and had to wait three months — and some of the silver we got was manufactured after we ordered. So there’s not a lot of silver sitting on shelves waiting for people to buy it.”
  • “Somewhere along the line some manufacturer will say ‘I can’t get the silver I want’ and the jig’s up.”
  • People will prefer gold and silver to having money in a bank where there’s tremendous counterparty risk. Three months ago Dexia was considered to be the best capitalized European bank and now they’ve been nationalized.
  • “You go to some of the biggest names who own gold and ask them about silver and a lot of them haven’t even looked at it.”
  • Central banks are selling gold surreptitiously.
  • “It’s shocking how undervalued the junior miners are…Gold and silver stocks are growth stocks. They all have a plan to increase production dramatically. Small miners can start a new mine and double in size…The relative value of gold stocks will become apparent with time…The breakout, when it comes, will be very sudden.”
Full disclosure: The staff at DollarCollapse is massively long precious metals, especially silver.

2011年以來美國老鷹銀幣銷量刷新歷史新高


據媒體報導,截至10月初美國老鷹銀幣年內累計銷售超過3500萬枚,已打破在2010年創下的34,662,500枚的銷售記錄。
美國老鷹銀幣在2011年內平均每月銷量為370萬枚,如果繼續保持此銷售量,預計在2011年年底累計銷量將達4400萬枚。並且按照以往經驗,受11月及12月節日季節來襲,金銀幣銷量將大幅上升,因消費者將加大購買量作為饋贈禮物。
此外,為了紀念美國銀鷹創建25週年,美國鑄幣廠將發售美國老鷹銀幣25週年紀念套裝。該套裝包含5枚來自3家不同鑄幣廠的1.999盎司銀幣。
這5枚銀幣分別為,兩枚來自美國西點軍校(West Point)鑄幣廠的新鑄樣幣及非流通銀幣、一枚來自美國舊金山鑄幣廠的非流通銀幣、一枚來自美國費城鑄幣廠的新鑄樣幣及一枚美國老鷹金幣。
每套紀念幣售價為299.95美元,其中包含來自美國鑄幣廠頒發的權威證書一份。因鑄幣廠共打造10萬套紀念幣,所以預計每位消費者或將限購5套。
據相關數據顯示,目前,2011年以來全球範圍內銀幣銷售量較上年同期上升40%,預計將在今年刷新銀幣銷售歷史新高。

EXCLUSIVE INTERVIEW WITH ERIC SPROTT CONCERNING SILVER PRICE OUTLOOK

Patrick MontesDeOca chats with Eric Sprott in this exclusive interview that took place at the Silver Summit in Spokane, Washington the week of October 17, 2011. Mr. Sprott speaks in riveting detail about the Silver Market and it's outlook through this year and next, in this not-to-be-missed interview.