2011年12月29日星期四

歐洲銀行業抵押品即將告罄引發擔憂

管歐洲央行(European Central Bank)上週向現金拮據的銀行系統提供了近5,000億歐元的貸款﹐但圍繞潛在資金問題的擔憂仍揮之不去。其中一個很大的原因在於對抵押品的擔憂。

目前歐洲各個銀行能夠說服機構投資者、銀行同業或者歐洲央行(ECB)向自己放貸的唯一方法就是﹐承諾以高質量資產作為抵押品。

而現在令部分監管機構和銀行業人士感到緊張的是﹐某些銀行這類資產的存量越來越低﹔這類資產包括歐洲主權債券及投資級非主權債。

如果銀行耗盡了具有抵押品資質的資產﹐那麼就可能遭遇流動性問題。法國-比利時銀行Dexia SA (DEXB.BT)今年秋季就上演了這樣的一幕﹐該行陷入了彈盡糧絕的境地並要求政府施救。

Cairn Capital Ltd.駐倫敦的首席投資策略師Graham Neilson表示﹐未來這必然是一項風險﹔如果銀行不具備可用作抵押品的資產﹐那麼就將無法獲得太大的流動性﹐這對實力較弱的銀行就可能意味著走向倒閉。

歐洲央行本月早些時候採取了解決抵押品短缺問題的行動。新行長德拉吉(Mario Draghi)宣佈﹐央行將擴大其可接受的貸款抵押品資產的範圍﹔歐洲央行貸款已經成為歐洲許多銀行的主要資金來源。

上述更為寬鬆的抵押品新規將允許部分公司債的使用﹐並於明年年初生效﹔這對銀行來說是很及時的﹐因為這樣一來﹐它們就可以在歐洲央行明年2月29日進行的3年期貸款招標中使用歐洲央行最新接受的抵押品。

一些銀行高管、監管官員及其他專家對此感到樂觀﹐認為此舉基本上可以解決問題。

蘇格蘭皇家銀行集團(Royal Bank of Scotland Group)首席歐洲經濟學家Jacques Cailloux表示﹐歐洲央行這次非常慷慨﹔Cailloux認為﹐明年歐洲銀行業可用作抵押品的資產將足以滿足融資需求。

意大利借款成本週三大幅下降﹐該國成功拍賣了逾100億歐元(約合130億美元)的短期國債﹔這一跡象顯示﹐歐洲央行的舉措已經緩解了市場壓力﹐即便只是略有緩解。上週﹐意大利銀行業獲取了逾1,100億歐元的歐洲央行3年期貸款﹐其中部分資金可能已被用於購買本國國債。

不過另一些市場觀察人士依然憂心不已。除了擔心銀行業可能用光合格抵押品以外﹐一些銀行和監管人士還擔心﹐銀行業日益依賴“有擔保借貸”將使其很難回歸過去通過發行無擔保債券來融資的做法。這可能會導致長期的融資難問題。

很難說清楚這個問題有多嚴重。歐洲銀行業普遍不披露資產負債表中未撥作他用、具備抵押品資格的資產規模﹐無論這些抵押品是要向歐洲央行提供﹐還是要充當有資產擔保債券的抵押品。有資產擔保債券是越來越受歡迎的一種有擔保借貸工具。

英國央行(Bank of England)就發出了相關警告。該行官員擔心﹐對“有抵押債券”等擔保貸款的依賴度日益上升﹐使得有產權負擔的銀行資產佔比日益上升。這意味著如果銀行倒閉﹐無擔保債權人無法獲得這些資產。

該行在其12月份的《金融穩定報告》(Financial Stability Report)中稱﹐市場已經開始擔心銀行有產權負擔資產的比例﹔產權負擔總體水平或者不確定性越高﹐債權人擠兌的可能性就越大﹔這也就使得機構更容易受到流動性風險的衝擊。報告還稱﹐這就會導致一個惡性循環﹐尋求利用擔保融資市場的銀行只會發現自己更難進入無擔保融資市場。

據知情人士稱﹐一些官員還很擔心﹐某些銀行(尤其是小型銀行)的合格抵押品或將告罄。

一位知情人士稱﹐近期的市場情報表明﹐投資者的擔憂情緒日益升溫﹐這在一定程度上是因為缺乏公開數據。

據知情人士稱﹐英國金融服務管理局(Financial Services Authority)近期曾對國內銀行進行了秘密調查﹐以估測這些銀行資產的產權負擔水平。英國央行正在初步評估調查數據﹐尚未形成任何確切結論。

自今夏以來﹐銀行基本就不可能發行無擔保債券﹐因為投資者認為歐洲銀行業風險較高。

Dealogic的數據顯示﹐在2011年下半年﹐歐洲銀行業共計發行了約800億歐元的優先無擔保債券﹔而去年和2009年同期規模分別高達2,400億歐元和2,570億歐元。

銀行不得不尋找其他融資渠道。西班牙、意大利和法國等地的銀行已經以包括主權債(通常是希臘、愛爾蘭等引爆債務危機的財政脆弱國家的國債)在內的資產作為抵押﹐向歐洲央行借入了數千億歐元的短期資金。

而長期融資方面﹐各銀行一直在發行有抵押債券。Dealogic的數據顯示﹐歐洲銀行業今年已經發行了約3,340億歐元的此類債券﹐較去年和2009年的規模分別增長了8%和24%。

但是﹐銀行能夠與這類債券綁定的抵押貸款和市政貸款的供應是有限的﹐而且有跡象顯示供應已經非常少。

某些銀行正在考慮為有抵押債券採用新型抵押品﹔德國一些小型銀行可用作抵押品的高質量抵押貸款池日漸見底﹐它們正在考慮使用對中小型企業的貸款來作為債券發行的抵押品。

一些銀行正在努力創造抵押品。例如﹐一些意大利銀行上週獲得意大利政府為它們新發行的380億歐元債券提供擔保﹐這些債券因而成為了歐洲央行貸款的合格抵押品。

然而﹐這些銀行並沒有將這批債券出售給投資者﹐而直接將它們計在了資產負債表上。

多位意大利銀行的高管們稱﹐這是因為這些銀行的常規抵押品即將用完。

某意大利銀行的一位高管稱﹐當前意大利銀行業的抵押品非常有限﹔他樂觀地認為﹐明年歐洲央行抵押品規定的放鬆將緩解這一問題。

苏丹要求与中国交易使用人民币和苏丹镑取代美元

路透喀土穆12月28日电---苏丹央行总裁周三说,该国正在与中国讨论,研议两国间的交易能否以苏丹镑和人民币来取代美元.

自从南苏丹在7月独立後,苏丹镑兑美元在黑市已大幅贬值.苏丹外汇的主要来源为石油,日均产量50万桶,南苏丹产量占约四分之三.

中国是南、北苏丹的主要投资者,投资领域包括建筑和石油项目.

"我们已经向中国提出正式请求,希望以苏丹镑和人民币来进行交易,可能再过不久,我们就可以不再使用美元,"央行总裁Mohamed Kheir al-Zubeir对记者说.

他说苏丹央行正和中国人行讨论这项议题,不过他并未给出时间表或其他相关细节.

苏丹在分裂前是去年中国第六大原油进口来源,供应量1,260万吨.最大供应者为沙特阿拉伯,达4,460万吨.(完)

金價跌至五個月來最低點 銀價下挫5.2%

資者現金需求的重燃週三令貴金屬受挫﹐並導致銀價觸及近一年來最低水平﹐金價則跌至五個月來的最低點。

在經過數日相對平靜的走勢後﹐歐元今日大幅走軟﹐這令金屬交易員感到擔憂﹐並導致一些人離場觀望。市場人士表示﹐由於目前正處在聖誕節與新年假日之間﹐因此成交量較小。

貴金屬幾乎與歐元同步下跌。歐元跌至11個月低點﹐這令市場關注焦點再度回到面臨困境的歐洲金融體系上。投資者擔心意大利週四舉行的國債拍賣可能會有糟糕的表現﹐從而導致歐元區出現信貸緊縮的可能性上升。

紐約商品交易所Comex分部大廳交易結束時﹐歐元約兌1.294美元﹐低於紐約匯市週二尾盤的1.306美元。

Comex分部交投最活躍的三月白銀期貨合約結算價跌1.506美元﹐至每盎司27.234美元﹐跌幅5.2%﹐為1月末以來的最低結算價水平。

二月黃金期貨合約結算價連續第五個交易日下跌﹐跌31.40美元﹐至每盎司1,564.10美元﹐跌幅2%﹐為7月份以來的最低結算價。

由於全球經濟增長前景走軟﹐週三貴金屬市場的拋盤也波及其他金屬市場。

鉑價跌至2009年11月份以來的最低水平﹐一月鉑期貨結算價跌3.2%﹐至每盎司1,387.70美元。鈀期貨跌2.9%﹐至每盎司647.15美元。

U.S. Mint says has enough gold, silver Eagles coins

NEW YORK (Reuters) - The United States Mint said on Wednesday it has enough American Eagle gold and silver bullion coins to meet demand and does not expect to allocate them in early 2012.

Sales of the U.S. gold and silver bullion coins have slowed in the fourth quarter as precious metals prices retreated from record highs, bucking a trend earlier this year when investors flocked to physical gold and silver as safe havens.

"As we plan on having sufficient quantities of all coins available, we do not anticipate having to allocate the initial release," U.S. Mint spokesman Michael White said in a note.

The Mint had allocated its sales of gold and silver Eagle bullion coins to its authorized dealers in the last several years as unprecedented demand and a lack of coin blanks led to depletion of its supplies.

White said on Wednesday the Mint's recent supply was adequate to meet demand and allocation to dealers was no longer necessary.

Silver Eagles December sales were around 2 million ounces, sharply below its record of 6.4 million ounces set in January -- the highest monthly sales since the start of the American Eagle bullion coins in 1986.

Gold Eagles sales were at 65,000 ounces, about 20 percent below its monthly average this year, the Mint's data shows.

Bullion coins are mostly sold to investors, while the Mint also produces proof and uncirculated coins targeting collectors.

Insurers may soon get IRDA nod for investing in gold

INSURANCE NEWS

MUMBAI: Gold, the most trusted investment for centuries, may well become an acceptable asset class for the insurance regulator after nearly a decade of lobbying, but that could push up the price of the ever-rising precious metal, taking it beyond the reach of many.

The investment committee of the Insurance Regulatory and Development Authority (Irda) will soon decide on whether insurance companies who raise investible surplus of more than 2.5 lakh crore a year should be allowed to invest in gold or not, three people familiar with the proposal said. Other proposals include buying credit default swaps (CDS), an insurance against loan default, and commodity derivatives.

"We are seeing whether insurers should invest in gold in physical form, or in any other form of financial instruments such as exchange traded funds, or other derivatives,'' said an executive at the regulator who did not want to be identified. "We have to see if we reach a consensus."

The decision by the Irda board last week to review investment guidelines for insurers comes in after a commodity exchange and the industry lobby group World Gold Council (WGC) presented its case to the regulator on the benefits of gold investments. There is no certainty that the committee will accept the proposal as gold investments also carry the price risk like any other asset.

"We have been asking them to allow investment in derivatives of gold since 2002,'' said SB Mathur, secretary general, Life Insurance Council."At present, gold and silver have developed as asset classes."

Gold has been one of the best-performing assets this year, returning about 16% in US dollar terms amid turbulence in the financial markets triggered by the European sovereign debt crisis. Investors such as Jim Rogers, a former business partner of billionaire George Soros, are betting that gold could touch at least $2,000 an ounce, a 15-20% upside from current levels. The demand for the yellow metal may surge with demand from India, the world's biggest importer and China where rising incomes induce purchases.

If the insurance companies join the chase for the metal when others are also piling on to beat potential inflation due to unrestrained printing of currency in the West, the prices could rise further.

http://m.economictimes.com/PDAET/articleshow/11248141.cms

2011年12月28日星期三

“山寨”黃金交易所被明文勒令停業

“山寨”黃金交易所再次被下禁令。昨日,央行聯合公安部、工商總局、銀監會、證監會等部門,下發關於加強黃金交易所或從事黃金交易平台管理的通知,矛頭再次直指“山寨”黃金交易所,並希望藉此整頓黃金市場亂象。
通知指出,上海黃金交易所和上海期貨交易所是經國務院批准或同意的開展黃金交易的交易所,兩家交易所已能滿足國內投資者的黃金現貨或期貨投資需求。任何地方、機構或個人均不得設立黃金交易所(交易中心),也不得在其他交易場所(交易中心)內設立黃金交易平台,已開設的要立即停止,並妥善做好黃金業務的善後清理工作

實際上,對於黃金交易所及黃金交易平台的整治,央行的通知已是第三發“砲彈”。早在11月下旬,國務院便已經發出清理整頓各類交易所、防范金融風險的“整改令”。 12月26日,上海黃金交易所也發出通知稱,近期對相關的四項規則及業務細則進行了修訂,大多將於2011年12月28日起實施,同時,一批原有規則被廢止。
近年來黃金價格的不斷走高,讓不少人覬覦其中的高額回報,“山寨”版黃金交易所就此遍地開花,如天津貴金屬交易所(簡稱天交所)、湖南維財大宗貴金屬交易所等6家規模較大的交易所;10餘家如恆泰大通、世元金行、金明黃金等規模較小、起步不久的泛金屬交易網點。投資者地下炒金大多血本無歸

 黃金市場的連續走牛,在帶來巨大投資機會的同時,也讓地下炒金公司層出不窮,很多非法金商更是藉此大發橫財。據中國黃金協會的一位人士保守估計,全國以黃金公司或投資公司名義經營此類業務的公司約有1000家,其中有規範者,但魚目混珠者也比比皆是。
據悉,國內的地下炒金公司,大多對外宣稱是“××黃金交易所會員”、“××金礦、××銀行合作夥伴”。它們通常以幾十甚至上百倍的高槓桿、連續交易誘惑投資者,但事實上幾乎沒有一個投資者可以真正賺到錢,參與地下炒金的投資者大多血本無歸。
而業內人士透露,地下炒金公司的獲利模式主要有三種:一是鼓勵投資者頻繁交易;二是通過金價的價差來獲利,如採用不正規報價軟件來獲取高額利潤;三是與投資者做對手盤。更有甚者,有些地下炒金公司直接通過“網絡系統問題”使得獲利的投資者無法平倉,最終導致虧損出局。
除了交易風險之外,參與地下金投資,客戶的資金安全也沒有保障,一些不正規的地下炒金公司甚至可能一夜之間“人間蒸發”。如2008年,浙江世紀黃金案發,法人代表張勇卷資600億元潛逃。


廣東省黃金協會副會長表示,此次《通知》下達,對於所有的投資者均不會有資金方面的影響,即使是真的要進行一部分交易平台的關停,也會採取比較緩和的退出機制。 “比如說不能建新倉,只能平倉,不會出現強行平倉的現象,保証投資者不受損失。”他同時認為,從《通知》表述來看,有可能只關停黃金交易品種,而不是關停整個交易所,天交所的白銀、鈀金等品種可能不受影響。

Nation Urged To Increase Holdings Of Gold

Gold displayed at a shop in Shanghai. As of December, China ranked sixth worldwide in gold holdings, with about 1,054 tons, says a report released by the World Gold Council. Provided to China Daily

BEIJING - China should further diversify its foreign-exchange portfolio and make more gold purchases when the metal's price dips but is still at a relatively high level, a senior central bank official said on Monday.

"The Chinese government should not only be cautious of the imported risk caused by rising global inflation, but also further optimize its foreign-exchange portfolio and purchase gold assets when the gold price shows a favorable fluctuation," said Zhang Jianhua, director of the research bureau affiliated with the People's Bank of China (PBOC).

He made the remarks in an article in the Beijing-based Financial News, a newspaper run by the PBOC.

The spot gold price declined 16 percent over the past three months to less than $1,600 an ounce last week. It touched a record of more than $1,900 in early September.

Zhang said bleak economic conditions, increasing international liquidity as countries turned to monetary easing and the resulting high inflation had dampened investors' confidence. He said that gold had become the only "safe haven" for risk-averse investors. "No asset is safe now. The only choice to hedge risks is to hold hard currency - gold."

Zhang didn't specify what proportion of China's $3.2 trillion foreign reserves should be held in gold.

China is the largest foreign holder of US Treasury securities, having invested about one-third of its foreign reserves in those bonds. About 20 percent has been invested in euro-denominated assets.

As of this month, China ranked sixth worldwide in gold holdings, with about 1,054 tons. The value accounted for about 1.8 percent of the country's total foreign reserves, according to a report released by the World Gold Council (WGC).

The US topped the list by holding more than 8,133 tons of the metal, 76.6 percent of its foreign reserves by value, while Germany ranked second by holding 3,396 tons, 73.7 percent of its reserves.

In 2011, countries including Russia, Thailand, South Korea, Bolivia, Colombia, Kazakhstan and Venezuela purchased the metal to increase gold holdings of their central banks' reserves.

China didn't sell or buy gold from 2010 to 2011, according to WGC statistics.

"The PBOC may have realized that its euro-denominated assets are in greater danger than it expected and started to eye gold," said Li Jie, director of the foreign-reserves research center at the Central University of Finance and Economics.

"But it's impractical for China to put its foreign reserves into commodities, including gold, because all these markets are too small for such a big hoard.

"For example, China's purchasing gold would push up the price of the metal and increase its own cost," said Li.

Li added that there was no easy way for China to get as much gold as it wished because major economies such as the US hold the majority of gold and market supplies are very limited.

China produced 31.75 tons of gold in October, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology said on Monday. Gold production gained 5 percent in the first 10 months of this year to 290.752 tons.

Driven by increasing demand from risk-averse investors, the international price of gold repeatedly reached new highs in 2011.

Central banks made their biggest gold purchases for a single year in 2011 since the Bretton Woods system dissolved in 1973 and major currencies began to float against each other without being pegged to gold. China has vowed to further diversify the nation's foreign-reserve portfolio amid growing global financial uncertainty. In October, it cut holdings of US Treasury securities by $14.2 billion to $1.13 trillion, the lowest level this year.

Media reports have said that the PBOC plans to create a fund worth $300 billion to invest the country's foreign reserves in the US and European markets. The fund will reportedly seek to invest in real assets and company shares, rather than government securities.