上周指ECRI這領先指標已難領先港股，但領先經濟還可以的。從美國的ECRI與GDP按年變幅可見，前者領先後者大約半年。過去兩年，ECRI變幅浪低一浪，GDP變幅同樣浪低一浪。周期而言，美國經濟在兩年前已「見頂」，只是未見急跌而已。
未見急跌肯定與瘋狂寬松有關：水有阻力，減慢調整。但須知道，該調的總要調，阻住調整只會化短痛為長痛，衰多幾個周期，上佳例子是1990年起的日本，及1997年起的香港。
2012年3月11日星期日
2012年3月10日星期六
If Gold Goes Below 1600, I Will Buy More
Jim Rogers
I’m certainly watching, if it goes below 1,600 USD/ounce I’m sure I’ll buy more. If it goes to 1,200 dollars/ounce I hope I’m smart enough to buy a lot more. Gold has been up 11 years in a row now, which is extremely unusual for any asset. So it would not surprise me if gold doesn’t ... continue to have a nice correction in 2012. If it does, if it does, I hope I’m smart enough to buy a lot more. - in Business Insider
I’m certainly watching, if it goes below 1,600 USD/ounce I’m sure I’ll buy more. If it goes to 1,200 dollars/ounce I hope I’m smart enough to buy a lot more. Gold has been up 11 years in a row now, which is extremely unusual for any asset. So it would not surprise me if gold doesn’t ... continue to have a nice correction in 2012. If it does, if it does, I hope I’m smart enough to buy a lot more. - in Business Insider
黃金的符號!
作者對黃金本質的解說,小弟非常認同
正好給一些新手們多的資料....從而了解黃金在財富中的定義
2月29日，上漲兩月的黃金價格再一次快速地下滑回來，黃金價格的調整圖線也再一次展開。黃金價格到頂了嗎？黃金價格要大幅下滑了嗎？黃金價格下滑了是不是意味著黃金沒用了？針對這些問題，各種評論解釋“漫天飛舞”，我的頭都大了！越想找理由越發現找不到理由，理了理頭緒，我還是從我的個人觀點出發分析闡述吧。
前兩天，中國明確下調未來的經濟增長率，也成為黃金下跌的理由。再加上傳統的美國“量化寬鬆”名詞的炒作，歐債危機的解決方案，以及小小希臘的反反复复，都引發著無數參與黃金投資、關心黃金的人們的內心波動。
但僅僅從黃金的價格走勢來分析黃金價值的起伏，有非常大的誤導，因為黃金價格走勢，已遠遠不是現在的證券投資、投機分析理論，以及大宗商品期貨投資、投機分析理論所能分析的。黃金價格的走勢更像是全人類財富對當今由國家機器和超強全球金融機構操縱的全球金融體系內在混亂的恐懼表現，以及超強全球金融機構時不時利用全套金融交易工具為維護他們的紙幣利益對市場的技術性打壓。
黃金的貨幣價值一直來源於重量單位，一定重量的黃金交換一定重量的糧食，是其基本交換。黃金的貨幣性僅僅來源於它對人類生存交換的貨幣體現，也就是說，重量單位是黃金的貨幣符號，而不是所謂的黃金的美元價格、黃金的歐元價格，或黃金的人民幣價格。所以，我明確提出我們中國老百姓必須分出10%-15%的資金來擁有“一定重量”的黃金作為家庭儲蓄的一部分，從而用“一定重量”的黃金來保證我們老百姓資產的“生存交換價值”和“真實購買力”。
全世界多達近百個黃金交易市場，有美元計價、歐元計價、英鎊計價、港幣計價、人民幣計價等許多種方式在給黃金交易定價。它的價格來自於該國國內紙幣政策的穩定與否，也來自於該國紙幣與他國紙幣之間關係的穩定與否，更來自於該國國家機器為了該國紙幣利益而“用盡各種方法”的“紙幣維穩”手段！
歷史的發展，強國此起彼伏，強國的紙幣也會此起彼伏。個人建議我們有一定儲蓄的老百姓配置“一定重量”的黃金來防範紙幣風險，不是為了掙差價，而是為了穩定我們資產的真實價值和真實購買力。如果是為了掙黃金所代表的紙幣價格漲跌的錢，那是家庭資產裡的另一種錢，那是另一種投資。不要混淆，也不要被混淆！
http://www.cngold.org/
正好給一些新手們多的資料....從而了解黃金在財富中的定義
前兩天，中國明確下調未來的經濟增長率，也成為黃金下跌的理由。再加上傳統的美國“量化寬鬆”名詞的炒作，歐債危機的解決方案，以及小小希臘的反反复复，都引發著無數參與黃金投資、關心黃金的人們的內心波動。
但僅僅從黃金的價格走勢來分析黃金價值的起伏，有非常大的誤導，因為黃金價格走勢，已遠遠不是現在的證券投資、投機分析理論，以及大宗商品期貨投資、投機分析理論所能分析的。黃金價格的走勢更像是全人類財富對當今由國家機器和超強全球金融機構操縱的全球金融體系內在混亂的恐懼表現，以及超強全球金融機構時不時利用全套金融交易工具為維護他們的紙幣利益對市場的技術性打壓。
黃金的貨幣價值一直來源於重量單位，一定重量的黃金交換一定重量的糧食，是其基本交換。黃金的貨幣性僅僅來源於它對人類生存交換的貨幣體現，也就是說，重量單位是黃金的貨幣符號，而不是所謂的黃金的美元價格、黃金的歐元價格，或黃金的人民幣價格。所以，我明確提出我們中國老百姓必須分出10%-15%的資金來擁有“一定重量”的黃金作為家庭儲蓄的一部分，從而用“一定重量”的黃金來保證我們老百姓資產的“生存交換價值”和“真實購買力”。
全世界多達近百個黃金交易市場，有美元計價、歐元計價、英鎊計價、港幣計價、人民幣計價等許多種方式在給黃金交易定價。它的價格來自於該國國內紙幣政策的穩定與否，也來自於該國紙幣與他國紙幣之間關係的穩定與否，更來自於該國國家機器為了該國紙幣利益而“用盡各種方法”的“紙幣維穩”手段！
歷史的發展，強國此起彼伏，強國的紙幣也會此起彼伏。個人建議我們有一定儲蓄的老百姓配置“一定重量”的黃金來防範紙幣風險，不是為了掙差價，而是為了穩定我們資產的真實價值和真實購買力。如果是為了掙黃金所代表的紙幣價格漲跌的錢，那是家庭資產裡的另一種錢，那是另一種投資。不要混淆，也不要被混淆！
http://www.cngold.org/
2012年3月9日星期五
Marc Faber : Gold Price may not exceed the $1,922/oz in 2012
Marc Faber : This year the Gold Price may not exceed the $1,922/oz high that we reached on Sept. 6. Maybe it will. I'm not a prophet. I'm just telling people that I'm Buying Gold and holding it. I don't speculate in gold. If you Buy Gold, you better understand that the price could always move to the downside. If you don't understand that, don't invest in gold—or in anything. - in The Gold Report
2012年3月8日星期四
Proof, Bullion and Specimen – What’s the Difference?
We use three classifications to describe our precious metal coins – proof, bullion or specimen.
Traditionally, design elements are delicately frosted. However, as an alternative, we colour some or all design elements on many of our proof quality releases.
Because of the time and skill involved in creating proof quality coins, this finish is reserved for our most limited, highly-prized numismatic (collectable) issues.
The Perth Mint takes a different approach. Our bullion coins feature a frosted table and a shiny design (the opposite way round to proof issues). The quality of each strike means that our bullion coins are sometimes referred to as “reverse proofs”. Indeed, we would claim they have the best quality bullion finish in the world.
Akin to a bullion coin in so far as it has a frosted table, it also features one or more special numismatic treatments – including a coloured design, gilded design or a gemstone insert.
Specimen is also the classification we use for standard bullion coins released in limited presentation packaging for collectors.
Proof Coins
The very highest quality coins produced by The Perth Mint feature a proof finish. The coin table (background) is highly-polished and mirror-like.Traditionally, design elements are delicately frosted. However, as an alternative, we colour some or all design elements on many of our proof quality releases.
Because of the time and skill involved in creating proof quality coins, this finish is reserved for our most limited, highly-prized numismatic (collectable) issues.
Bullion Coins
Bullion coins are made for the purpose of investing in precious metals. They are mass produced to keep the price as close to ‘spot’ as possible. As a result, the finish on many bullion coins issued worldwide is uniform with no distinctively polished or frosted areas.The Perth Mint takes a different approach. Our bullion coins feature a frosted table and a shiny design (the opposite way round to proof issues). The quality of each strike means that our bullion coins are sometimes referred to as “reverse proofs”. Indeed, we would claim they have the best quality bullion finish in the world.
Specimen Coins
A Perth Mint specimen coin is a limited collectable release.Akin to a bullion coin in so far as it has a frosted table, it also features one or more special numismatic treatments – including a coloured design, gilded design or a gemstone insert.
Specimen is also the classification we use for standard bullion coins released in limited presentation packaging for collectors.
http://blog.perthmint.com.au/
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