金價力守1310伺機回升

石林:
今年7月剛過去，金市以1350.4美元結束該月份的交易，銀市則收報20.285美元。今年以來7個月，以月底收市價而論，金市有5個月報升，只有2個月報跌，金價比去年底上漲了289.4美元或27.27%。
銀市則有6個月報升，只有1個月報跌，銀價迄今比去年底上漲了6.47美元或46.83%。
其他貴金屬今年內至今亦報升，升幅不相伯仲，鉑金升幅為28.86%，鈀金升幅為26.29%。由此觀之是白銀升幅最大，其中的一個原因是過去數年銀價跌幅過大，銀價與金價的比率也過度偏低。
然而，與貴金屬直接相關的市場，銀價年內的升幅尚非最大，摘冠的應屬金甲蟲指數HUI，升幅高達146.73%。請別忘了，該指數在過去數年曾慘跌八成三，可說曾置諸死地但而後生。
上周美國及日本兩大央行分別進行議息，平心而論，結果不屬太大意外。兩央行皆小心從事，聯儲局並沒有放棄再加息的計劃，仍要繼續觀察全球經濟和美國相關數據的演變而定；而日本央行一如事前宣揚，並沒有再大規模施行量寬政策，因為當局認為此類做法的邊際效應已在遞減，故亦暫作觀望。
市場估低息持續
然而，市場對上述兩央行做法另有反應，主流意見是認為全球低息環境仍將繼續，特別是估計未來一段時間美國難以再加息。所以在兩大央行議息後，美元匯價轉弱，美國債券價格再度回揚，而孳息率繼續軟落。
有一點較為意外，上週五晚公佈美國今年第二季GDP增長只得1.2%，遠遜於市場預期的2.6%。此數據反映美國經濟在緩慢途中可能又遇到新問題。聯儲局在周三的議息新聞公佈仍對美國經濟抱審慎樂觀態度，且認為通脹為2%的目標在一段時間可以達到，疲弱的GDP增長數據卻令人對聯儲局所持的態度存疑，因該似乎與現實顯得脫節。
於是市場對此數據反應的情緒，比對議息結果的反應更大，美元回跌更急，美債價續升，而孳息率再弱，此三點均有利金價再度回揚。
金市原對於較早前累積升幅進行消化整固，見諸於美期金市的未平倉合約總量從高峰迴降，金價卻力守在1310美元水位之上，近兩個月的上升軌仍維持完整，技術上續向好，上述消息令金市乘機從調整低位向上回升。
通脹難大幅回升
金市的新升勢存在一些隱憂，首先是期金市的倉位結構續處於高度不穩定狀態；其次是看好者眾，金礦股看漲百分比指數仍企於92.66的極高水平。還有，美國第二季GDP增長低於預期，再顯露一個較深的問題，就是美國的貨幣流動速率仍在下滑。其中M1貨幣流速現為5.741，乃自1974年第三季以來的新低；M2貨幣流速為1.448，MZM貨幣流速為1.302，均屬有記錄以來的新低。
在此背景下，很難有通脹大幅回升出現，無怪商品價格最近作出調整。
鑑於上述原因，估計金市短期仍然難升越1392美元的大阻力，而在1377美元及1368美元分別有回升阻力，但在1338美元及1325美元則分別有支持。
銀市的倉位結構更進一步極端化，但上週五的升幅不及金市。現估計銀市短期仍難升越21.6美元的大阻力，而在21.2美元及20.8美元分別有回升阻力，而在19.9美元及19.5美元分別有支持。本週五將公佈美國最新就業數據，屆時或又有一番炒作，關鍵仍看美債價及孳息率對此的反應。

'Sell everything,' DoubleLine's Gundlach says

Sat Jul 30, 2016 | 9:47 AM EDT

By Jennifer Ablan | NEW YORK

(Reuters) - Jeffrey Gundlach, the chief executive of DoubleLine Capital, said on Friday that many asset classes look frothy and his firm continues to hold gold, a traditional safe-haven, along with gold miner stocks.

Noting the recent run-up in the benchmark Standard & Poor's 500 index while economic growth remains weak and corporate earnings are stagnant, Gundlach said stock investors have entered a “world of uber complacency.”

The S&P 500 on Friday touched an all-time high of 2,177.09, while the government reported that U.S. gross domestic product in the second quarter grew at a meager 1.2 percent rate.

“The artist Christopher Wool has a word painting, 'Sell the house, sell the car, sell the kids.' That’s exactly how I feel – sell everything. Nothing here looks good,” Gundlach said in a telephone interview. "The stock markets should be down massively but investors seem to have been hypnotized that nothing can go wrong."

Gundlach, who oversees more than $100 billion at Los Angeles-based DoubleLine, said the firm went "maximum negative" on Treasuries on July 6 when the yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note hit 1.32 percent.

"We never short in our mainline strategies. We also never go to zero Treasuries. We went to lower weightings and change the duration," Gundlach said.

Currently, the yield on the 10-year Treasury note is 1.45 percent, which has translated into some profits so far for DoubleLine.

"The yield on the 10-year yield may reverse and go lower again but I am not interested. You don't make any money. The risk-reward is horrific," Gundlach said. "There is no upside" in Treasury prices.

Gundlach reiterated that gold and gold miners are the best alternative to Treasuries and predicted gold prices will reach $1,400. U.S. gold on Friday settled up at $1,349 per ounce.

Gundlach lambasted Federal Reserve officials yet again for talking up rate hikes for this year while the latest GDP data showed disappointing economic growth. "The Fed is out to lunch. Does the Fed look at what's going on in the economy? It is unbelievable," he said.

Overall, Gundlach said the Bank of Japan's decision on Friday to stick with its minus 0.1 percent benchmark rate - and refrain from deeper cuts - reflects the limitations of monetary policy. "You can't save your economy by destroying your financial system," he said.

(Reporting By Jennifer Ablan; Editing by Marguerita Choy and Leslie Adler)

【on.cc東網專訊】 據外媒，有「新債王」之稱的DoubleLine Capital行政總裁岡拉克(Jeffrey Gundlach)表示，很多資產已呈現泡沫化迹象，故公司已轉為持有最傳統的避險天堂──黃金，以及金礦相關股票，預測金價將高見每安士1,400美 元。

岡拉克指，標指一直創新高，但經濟增長依然疲弱，且企業盈利幾乎停滯，揶揄股票投資者已經進入了「超級自滿的世界。」

事實上，標指周五盤中最高見2,177點，再創歷史新高，惟當日最新數據卻顯示美國第二季GDP僅增1.2%，遠遜預期的2.5%增幅。

岡拉克引用Christopher Wool的經典字畫，"Sell the house, sell the car, sell the kids."（賣屋，賣車，賣孩子。），指這完全反映他的想法，就是要盡沽所有投資！他認為股市應該大跌，但很多投資者卻已被催眠了，以為一切安好。

對於公司的投資策略，岡拉克指，當10年期美國國債收益率於本月6日跌至1.32%的時候，公司開始將該些國債盡情地沽出，同時大量降低國債的投資佔比，以及轉持其他年期的國債。目前，10年期美國國債收益率已回升至1.45%水平，反映公司帳面上已有獲利。

他認為，雖然國債收益率有可能再次回落，但已沒有興趣理會它，因其根本賺不到錢，而且風險回報十分可怕，認為美國國債價格再無上漲空間。

岡拉克重申，黃金及金礦相關股票將是美國國債的最佳替代品，並預測金價將高見每安士1,400美元。

不過，黃金期貨於周五收市已見每安士1,357美元，即使升至1,400美元，潛在升幅也僅約3.1%。

另外，對於聯儲局官員仍預計美國今年可以加息，岡拉克認為，他們根本無視了令人失望的美國經濟數據。

談及日本央行未如預期般擴大刺激政策，他指這反映了目前日本貨幣政策的局限性，指央行「不能破壞自己的金融體系來拯救經濟。」

意大利第三大銀行接獲瑞銀救助建議

 

意大利第三大銀行西雅那銀行(Monte dei Paschi di Siena)公布，接獲瑞士銀行的最後一刻救助貸款計劃。

該銀行沒有披露計劃細節，只提及收到兩封分別來自瑞銀與意大利前工業部長Corrado Passera的信件。銀行發言人回應稱，兩封信均提及同一個救助貸款計劃提案，而銀行董事會須時間審視建議，以及要求對方提供更詳細資料，一旦有結果將會盡早對外公布。

歐洲央行周五將發表歐洲銀行界壓力測試結果，開業544年的西雅那銀行預期不能夠通過測試，勢必被央行要求大幅減少壞賬及增加股本。

路透引述消息人士指出，曾出任意大利最大零售銀行Intesa Sanpaolo主管的Passera，將於周五向西雅那董事會陳述救助方案。

據消息人士稱，瑞銀在救助計劃內有參與，而計劃是銀行現有融資計劃外的另一個選擇。西雅那正爭取一個由不同銀行組成的財團，向其注資50億歐羅。該計劃是由摩根大通與Mediobanca籌劃。不過，周四有消息指出，三間銀行無意參與該計劃，但花旗、美銀、德銀與瑞信則有興趣參與，野村與法興則未有回應。

Silver — Once and Future Money

 

 

Before the Renaissance, world money existed as precious metal coins or bullion. Caesars and kings hoarded gold and silver, dispensed it to their troops, fought over it, and stole it from each other. Land has been another form of wealth since antiquity. Still, land is not money because, unlike gold and silver, it cannot easily be exchanged, and has no uniform grade.
In the fourteenth century, Florentine bankers (called that because they worked on a bench or banco in the piazzas of Florence and other city states), accepted deposits of gold and silver in exchange for notes which were a promise to return the gold and silver on demand. The notes were a more convenient form of exchange than physical metal. They could be transported long distances and redeemed for gold and silver at branches of a Florentine family bank in London or Paris.

Bank notes were not unsecured liabilities, rather warehouse receipts on precious metals.

Renaissance bankers realized they could put the precious metals in their custody to other uses, including loans to princes. This left more notes issued than physical metal in custody. Bankers relied on the fact that the notes would not all be redeemed at once, and they could recoup the gold and silver from princes and other parties in time to meet redemptions. Thus was born “fractional reserve banking” in which physical metal held is a fraction of paper promises made.

Despite the advent of banking, notes, and fractional reserves, gold and silver retained their core role as world money. Princes and merchants still held gold and silver coins in purses and stored precious metals in vaults. Bullion and paper promises stood side-by-side. Still, the system was bullion-based.

Silver performed a leading role in this system. This is seen in the success of the Spanish dollar, an eight-real coin, called in Spanish the real de a ocho, or piece-of-eight. The Spanish dollar contained 0.885 ounces of pure silver. It was a 22-karat coin with a total weight of 0.96 ounces (once an alloy was added for durability).

The Spanish Empire minted the real de a ocho to compete as currency with the Joachimsthaler of the Holy Roman Empire. The Joachimsthaler was a silver coin minted in the St. Joachim Valley (thal in German). The word Joachimsthaler was later shortened to taler, cognate with the word “dollar” in English.

Both the Spanish piece-of-eight and the German taler were predecessors of the American silver dollar. Spanish dollars were legal tender in the United States until 1857. As late as 1997, the New York Stock Exchange traded shares in units of one-eighth of a dollar, a legacy of the original silver piece-of-eight.

Similar silver coinage was adopted in Burgundy, the Netherlands (called the leeuwendaalder or “lion dollar”), and Mexico from the seventeenth century. Spanish silver dollars were widely used in world trade. Silver was almost the only commodity accepted by China in exchange for Chinese manufactures until the nineteenth-century. China put its own chop on the Spanish coins to make them a circulating currency in China. If gold was the first world money, silver was the first world currency.

Silver’s popularity as a monetary standard was based on supply-and-demand. Gold was always scarce, silver more readily available. Charlemagne invented quantitative easing, or “QE,” in the ninth century by substituting silver for gold coinage to increase the money supply in his empire. Spain did the same in the sixteenth century.

Silver has most of gold’s attractions. Silver is of uniform grade, malleable, relatively scarce, and pleasing to the eye. After the U.S. made gold possession a crime in 1933, silver coins circulated freely. The U.S. minted 90% solid silver coins until 1964. Debasement started in 1965.

Depending on the particular coin — dimes, quarters, or half-dollars — the silver percentage dropped from 90% to 40%, and eventually to zero by the early 1970s. Since then, U.S. coins in circulation contain copper and nickel.
From antiquity until the mid-twentieth century, citizens of even modest means might have some gold or silver coins. Today there are no circulating gold or silver coins. Such coins as exist are bullion — kept out of sight.

Here’s a close-up of a silver ingot. These ingots are stamped (just like paper money) with important information. Here, you can clearly see stamps for the refinery that produced the ingot (Argor Heraeus), the country of origin (Switzerland), and the purity of the silver (999.9). There is also a stamp for the assayer (MH Melter) who tests the purity. The ingots are also stamped with a date (this ingot is 2016), and a unique serial number (not shown).

Is it time to add silver to your portfolio?
At Intelligence Triggers, we use a method called causal inference to make forecasts about events arising in complex systems, such as capital markets. Causal inference methodology is based on Bayes’ Theorem, an early 19^th century formula first discovered by Thomas Bayes. The formula looks like this in its modern mathematical form:

In plain English, this formula says that by updating our initial understanding through unbiased new information, we improve our understanding. I learned to use this method while working at CIA, and we apply it at Intelligence Triggers today.

The left side of the equation is an initial estimate of the probability of an event happening. New information goes into right hand side of the equation. If it’s consistent with our estimate, it goes into the numerator (which increases the odds of our expected outcome). If it’s inconsistent, it goes into the denominator (which lowers the odds of our expected outcome).

In this case, we have used the formula to estimate the probabilities of a significant rise in the price of silver in the next six months. We estimate a 60% probability that the price of silver will increase at least 25% in the next six months. That’s a strong enough signal to trigger a “buy” recommendation using our proprietary Kissinger Cross methodology.
We update our forecast continually based on new information. What are some of the data points included in our most recent updated forecast?

• The price of silver has shown great resilience in the face of significant headwinds. Silver has backed off a bit from its recent high of $20.37 per ounce on July 13. But, it’s holding around the $19.50 per ounce level, the highest price in two years. This is true despite a bearish commitment of traders report from the COMEX, approaching futures expiration (usually a time for downward price pressure by shorts), reduced Brexit fears, increased COMEX margin requirements, a stronger dollar, and a new round of tough talk from the Fed about rate hikes coming in September.Normally, any one of these factors would be enough to push silver significantly off the recent highs. The fact that silver has been resilient in the face of all six factors at once is a bullish sign

• In addition to holding up well in the face of bearish factors, silver is set to get a boost from several bullish factors that have not yet been fully priced in by the markets. Despite the recent strong dollar and tough talk from the Fed, the U.S. economy cannot afford a strong dollar. The strong dollar is deflationary and pushes the Fed further away from its inflation targets. The Fed will not raise rates in September (and probably not for the rest of this year). Once that dovish signal gets priced in by the markets, the dollar will weaken and the dollar price of silver will get a boost

• Regardless of which party wins the U.S. presidential election in November, the U.S. is set for a round of helicopter money (fiscal stimulus monetized by the Fed) in 2017. If Hillary Clinton wins, that probably means a pick-up in Senate votes for Democrats and a bipartisan infrastructure spending bill. If Donald Trump wins, he has already promised massive infrastructure spending, starting with “The Wall.”

Either way, we’re looking at more spending, bigger deficits, more money printing and, eventually more inflation. The market’s anticipation of this outcome, starting in mid-November, will be a powerful tailwind for silver.
Regards,

Jim Rickards
for The Daily Reckoning

羅傑斯喊價：黃金5000美元就賣

7月26日，山西太原一家金店銷售人員展示熱銷產品「投資金條」。（中新社） 

國際投資大師羅傑斯。（中新社資料照片） 

黃金價格在美國聯準會議息會議前夕回到損益平衡點，有國際金融大鱷之稱的羅傑斯26日出席「2016中國國際黃金大會」時表示，預期黃金價格會持續上漲，前景相當看好，不過他強調，黃金會先經歷下行、再往上走的過程，且往上走時可能會碰到「大泡沫」，預估落在2019到2020年。

第2屆中國國際黃金大會於26至28日在北京召開，論壇包括黃金礦業、黃金投資及黃金消費等3大領域，探討黃金礦產的採礦開發技術設備、海內外黃金巨頭的對話合作、黃金投資市場趨勢與投資產品創新、國際化，以及黃金珠寶業如何結合「互聯網+」新經濟商機等面向。

投資機構 進場避險

財華網報導，與會的羅傑斯表示，世界經濟正面臨嚴重衰退，加上受美國聯準會暫緩升息、地緣政治風險及英國脫歐等因素影響，全球投資機構的大量資金開始進入黃金市場避險，導致黃金ETF持倉量再度暴漲，因此，他看好黃金價格在未來幾年會上漲得更多。

羅傑斯指出，像金屬板塊的黃金、白銀、鋅、錫都值得投資，鐵礦石和礦山對長期投資者來說也是適合購入的時機，但他現階段不會買入黃金，會一直等黃金跌到每盎司1000美元以下時才會進場。

大鱷說笑 賣金買田

他也提醒投資人，黃金未來走勢將會先經歷下行、再往上走的過程，且往上走的過程會碰到「大泡沫」，因為金價會漲得非常高。《中國黃金報》報導，羅傑斯認為，黃金大泡沫的時間可能落在2019年或2020年。

對於轟動一時的「搶金大媽」，持有的黃金來到損益平衡點，該如何處置手中的黃金部位？羅傑斯開玩笑地說，「黃金到每盎司5000美元時，就可以拋售，然後，我到中國買農田」。

羅傑斯認為，中國的黃金市場，充滿投資價值，一旦市場開放後，相信中國黃金市場在全球影響力及定價能力將會愈來愈強。

施永青 物價已不能反映通脹

人們已習慣了以消費物價指數來反映通脹的程度。不少商業機構都以此作為薪金調整時的重要參考，而不少提供公共服務的機構亦會以此作為收費調整的準則。然而，由於社會環境的變遷，這種做法已明顯不恰當，並且會令貧富更加懸殊，社會

矛盾愈趨激化。近期西方社會出現的眾多暴力事件，相信與此有莫大的關係。

當人類的生產力尚處於較低水平的時候，人們連生命的最基本需要都未能滿足，所以每當收入增加，就會大部分拿來消費。如果生產供應跟不上，物價就會上升。在這個年代，流通的貨幣一增加，消費物價指數就會上升，而消費物價指數亦可以被用作通貨膨脹的寒暑表。

隨著第三世界亦逐步現代化，人類的生產力已足以解決社會人類的生活所需，在這種情況下，即便社會上的貨幣供應增加，亦不會全部流入消費市場，而是更多地流入投資市場。

金 融海嘯之後，美國不斷QE，市場上流通的貨幣應有所增加，但反映通脹的消費物價指數卻長期偏低，這看來一點也不合理，原因不是資金沒有流動，而是資金集中 在投資市場與投機市場流動，令股價與樓價都上升了不少。只是股價與樓價的升跌，過往都一直視作與通脹無關，不會被計算在消費物價指數裡。於投機市場的衍生 工具，更連資產也算不上，時間一到就會歸零，根本沒法統計，但並不等如資金沒有在投機市場流動。

因此，QE未能令通脹上升是因為貨幣有量乏流的說法並不完全正確，QE後，貨幣的流通仍是有增加的，只是集中在投資與投機市場，否則美國的股市憑甚麼屢創新高？

亦是因為這個原因，在多輪QE之下，只有那些富裕階層才有得益，那些沒有恆產的普羅大眾，根本分不到一杯羹。他們雖然也可以因物價不升而受益，但亦會因物價不升而沒有機會加薪。他餓不死，凍不僵，卻眼白白看著有資產的人財富倍增，過著奢華的生活，心裡很不舒服。

本 來，有資產的人無端端因QE而財富倍增，應自知此乃不勞而獲，某種程上可算是不義之財，應多做善事，棄財避災。只可惜有些新富起來的人，財大氣粗，到處招 搖。有人高調地搬入價值連城的豪宅，競投過十萬元一瓶的紅酒，還要帶幾個美女上遊艇出海。他可能沒想過，遊艇上有個水手，年逾四十，因未有物業，未能娶妻 生子，心中有何感受。不知會否有一天，這個水手決定把積蓄買了一把槍，然後……。我擔心我們的社會正朝這個方向發展。

世界將繼續QE，而用直升機撒錢的方法已被否決。即是說，資金仍會落入有資產的人的手裡，令貧富懸殊的情況更加惡劣。我想我們這個社會愈來愈暴戾，愈來愈不安全。

環境有變金銀乏再升動力

石林

金銀兩市看來確有點疲態了，在連升六周後連續兩周回順。金市上周收報1322.1元（美元．下同），較前周續回落16元或1.19%；銀市則收報19.59元，全周續回落0.56元或2.77%。 

金銀上周跌幅其實並非很大，兩市皆力抗一些外來不利因素，金市力守著1306元的較關鍵支持

，而銀市力守住19.2元的重要支持，且比金市表現出更頑強的抗跌力。 

上文說的金銀市疲態，是指相對于今年6個持續反複升勢而言，現作出一定回調應很正常，尤其外部環境慢慢發生了變化。 

這些變化，在上周較明顯的是美元彙價繼續向上回升，美彙指數現已升越97.5水平，為3個多月來的高位；而這次上升是經過多番爭持後出現的，故可說是一個具意義的向上突破。 

金價與美元回複反向 

回顧過去半年，金價仍大致與美元保持反向關系，但緊密程度則比較松散，有時甚至變成同向關系。此一反常的行情表現，尤其在6月下旬至7月中旬這段期間最為明顯，究其原因是黃金與美元均扮演資金避難所角色。 

既然是「反常」行情，終有一天會回複較正常狀態，所以本欄上周就特別提醒要留意美元彙價，若持續回升，最終會起到壓抑金價的作用。至于何時會回複較正常狀態？就是黃金或美元其中之一作為資金避難的角色淡化，上周很明顯是黃金在此的功能有所褪色，市場資金對風險的偏好又加強，回流到股市等方面去，因此，金價慢慢回複到與美元彙價互呈反向的狀態。 

迄今為止，金價仍表現出一定的抗跌力。問題是美元彙價繼續強勁，金價的抗跌力將難以維持得太久。 

此外，金價與美國10年債券價格，近數年一直保持相當密切的同向且同步關系，未曾出現過十分松脫的現象。然而，美債價格最近呈現從高峰回落調整的行情，相應地美債孳息率乃從低谷慢慢回穩。究其原因是，市場認為美國加息步伐盡管十分緩慢，甚至停步不前，但相信不至于調過頭來進行減息。 

續調整機會較大 
商品價格經過近半年持續反複攀升，倦意已相當明顯，CRB商品指數上周跌破今年以來的上升軌。此訊號告訴我們，雖不能就此說商品價格將回複淡勢，但起碼是年初至今的一段升勢宣布結束，進入調整階段。在此形勢下，暫仍不能說金銀兩市年初至今的一段升勢，會隨商品價格進入調整而同告結束，但最低限度金銀價格目前失去來自商品價格回升方面的鼓勵和支持。 

最後，今年帶動金價回升，且比金價回升幅度大得多的金甲蟲指數，近兩周也從高峰向下回順，在對數圖上，年初至今的急升軌正面臨考驗。簡而言之，金市較前失去了持續的上升動力。 

金市內牛熊兩巨人最近亦慢慢減倉，估計金價短期續作調整機會居多，1340元已成為目前阻力，難于重上1350元。1306元仍是重要支持，此水平若失，金價有退守至1283元的可能。 

銀市內牛熊兩巨人仍在惡鬥，期銀市的淨倉量再增至更極端水平，市況凶險。現估計20元是回升阻力，難以重上20.3元，19.2元乃是關鍵支持，此位若失，銀價大幅退落到18元並非不可能。本周請關注美國及日本兩央行議息及政策取向，因從中可判別央行是否有意重走大規模量寬舊路。