2016年12月18日星期日

Evidence Obama birth certificate 'fake' heading to Congress

http://www.wnd.com/2016/12/


Evidence that the document presented to the American public by Barack Obama as his Hawaiian birth certificate is fake soon will be heading to members of Congress, and the difficult discussions over what crimes may have been committed and what should be done could begin soon.
The atmosphere in Washington will be different under Trump, who will be inaugurated Jan. 20, since he publicly questioned Obama’s birth certificate in 2011. During this election season, he stated he now believes Obama was born in Hawaii.
But at a news conference Thursday, Maricopa County, Arizona, Sheriff Joe Arpaio, the only law enforcement officer to formally investigate the allegations of fraud, presented evidence that the image of the birth document posted by the White House was fraudulent.
One thing seems certain: The evidence will have to go elsewhere for action to be taken, since Arpaio, known as “America’s toughest sheriff” and innovator of such jail amenities as pink underwear and surplus Army tents in the desert heat for jail inmates, is leaving office Jan. 1 after more than two decades serving Phoenix-area residents, who had asked him for the birth certificate investigation.
His replacement already has stated, CBS News reported, that he “will cut off Arpaio’s investigation into Obama’s birth certificate.”
Mike Zullo, Arpaio’s lead investigator since 2011 on the birth certificate issue, told WND he wants to get the evidence to members of Congress for evaluation. It could support a Presidential Transparency Act, which would give secretaries of state across the nation the authority to investigate candidates with suspect qualifications.
“This is what we have learned. Every secretary of state is powerless to investigate a candidate,” he told WND. “They have to take everything on face value.”
That means a candidate whose qualifications are questioned cannot be reviewed by state secretaries of state, who run the elections
Zullo told WND that could be a very easy fix for the controversy that developed around Obama’s document.
The issue is that the U.S. Constitution requires the president to be a “natural-born citizen” but does not define the term. Scholarly works cited by the Founders defined it as a citizen at birth, born in the country to two citizens of the country, or merely the offspring of two citizens of the country.
The birth certificate Obama displayed on the White House website as “proof positive” of his eligibility states he was born in Hawaii to an American mother and a Kenyan father.
Some immediately pointed out alleged anomalies, questioning its validity, while others argued it also could prove his ineligibility because his father was not a citizen. Some of the lawsuits over the issue argued Obama was a dual citizen at birth through his father, contending the framers of the Constitution excluded dual citizens from qualifying as natural born citizens.
Get an autographed copy of the now historic, No. 1 bestselling book that forced Barack Obama to release his challenged “birth certificate” in 2011 and get the whole story about his contested constitutional eligibility.
Wheres_the_birth_certificate_vindicated
Eventually, just as the No. 1 bestseller “Where’s The Birth Certificate?” was combining with a challenge at that time from billionaire businessman Donald Trump to force Obama’s hand, Obama held a White House news conference to release a copy of his birth certificate.
Now, what has been described as the only official law enforcement investigation ever done into the Obama birth certificate has concluded it is “not authentic.”
See a video prepared by the investigators and released at a news conference on Thursday:
Jerome Corsi, Ph.D., WND senior staff writer and author of “Where’s the Birth Certificate?” was credited by sheriff’s officials with contributing to the investigation.
Corsi said Zullo and Arpaio “have done the United States a heroic service demonstrating by forensic analysis that the long form birth certificate produced in a White House news conference on April 27, 2011, as Barack Obama’s authentic birth certificate is a forgery.”
“The nine points of forgery between the Johanna Ah’nee birth certificate and Obama’s [long-form birth certificate] prove convincingly that the Ah’nee birth certificate was the source document from which the Obama LFBC was created.”
Sheriff Joe Arpaio and Jerome Corsi
Sheriff Joe Arpaio and Jerome Corsi
Corsi said Arpaio’s five-year effort “vindicates the extensive research WND conducted over years to bring this issue to the attention of the American public.”
The sheriff’s video said there were nine images on the Obama birth certificate that appear to be identical to, and copied from, another birth certificate issued in Hawaii just days after his birth.
That certificate belongs to Johanna Ah’nee.
Get a commemorative “Where’s the Birth Certificate?” T-shirt – sure to be a collector’s item.
The copied items include the word “Honolulu,” “Oahu” twice, three different Xs and two time stamps. The identical nature of the Xs raised serious questions since they would have been applied to original documents by moving a typewriter carriage and roller at the time.
Explained the investigator on the video:
Doesn’t it just make sense that Alvin Onaka’s stamp and the April 25th date stamp were lifted from someplace also? Ask yourself this question. If anyone presented you with a document in your life that was this suspect would you readily accept it or would you begin an intense vetting, be it a house title, a car title, a piece of currency, anything? Would you accept something this suspect if presented to you in your life? If you answered no, then ask yourself a second question, don’t the American people have a right to vet the documents that they are presented by public officials.
One of the experts who assisted in the investigation was Reed Hayes, a court-qualified handwriting and document examiner, who runs a business in Hawaii. He is on the board of the Scientific Association of Forensic Examiners and has been in business nearly 40 years.
What do YOU think? Sound off on Sheriff Joe’s report on Obama birth certificate
Forlabs, an Italian company that specializes in extracting information from multimedia files, also produced the results.
“We had two experts from two countries in separate disciplines of forensics that came to one conclusion: Barack Obama’s long form birth certificate it not authentic,” the report said.
During the news conference, Zullo quoted from the investigation by Hayes: “The (nail in the coffin) that proves that Certificate of Live Birth is inauthentic is the exact lineup of numerous entries on both [certificates].”
He said the experts likened the evidence to being as reliable as a fingerprint.
During his investigation, Zullo said he encountered unusual opposition from officials who would normally be expected to cooperate with investigators, such as hospital officials, state officials, and others in Hawaii.
He said that just increased his suspicions.
Arpaio said he, like Zullo, at the outset was ready to verify the document as valid and drop the issue.
“Five years ago I said one thing, show us the microfiche, the birth certificate and we’ll all go home,” he said.
But he couldn’t because of the evidence.
He confirmed plans to turn the results over to the federal government and Congress.
“Maybe some members of Congress will hold some hearings, open to the public regarding this matter. … If they can hold hearings … on underinflated footballs, why can’t you hold one on this?” he said. “Look at our evidence, just look at it.”
He said at the news conference that he was withholding some “sensitive” information so that the next step could be taken.
But he called it a “fake, fake birth certificate.”
The evidence
The sheriff’s office concluded: “It is the opinion of the Maricopa County Sheriff’s Office that the birth certificate on your right, belonging to Johanna Ah’nee, was in fact used as a source document in the digital creation of Barack Obama’s long form birth certificate.”
The video notes nine points of “forgery.”
“What are the odds that two stamps in two separate boxes stamped by hand … days apart would have the exact same angle?” the investigators ask.
Get commemorative “Where’s the Birth Certificate?” postcards. And who knows what President Trump may do to get to the bottom of this controversy once and for all.
“It should be pointed out these stamps were looked at by two separate document examiners in two forensic disciplines on two continents,” the video explains.
WND reported when the news conference was announced how the issue had badgered Obama from before his first inauguration until well into his second term. Now, apparently, it’s raining on his legacy.
WND reported Obama explained he decided to release it because the Internet “chatter” was becoming a “distraction.”
At the time, the Washington Times described Obama as “visibly frustrated” and noted that a recent CBS News-New York Times poll showed 45 percent of registered Republican voters believe Obama was not born in the U.S.
President Obama
President Obama
But while the issue became known in liberal and left-leaning circles as the biggest “conspiracy” theory of all time, some document experts questioned the validity of the birth certificate Obama released. The question was posed, unsuccessfully, to the U.S. Supreme Court many times.
In 2012, Arpaio held a news conference that concluded there was probable cause to believe the document Obama released as an official government document is a computer-generated forgery.
Arapaio, known for his strict enforcement of immigration laws, commissioned the investigative team after local citizens presented him with a petition expressing concern that Obama might not be eligible for Arizona’s presidential ballot.
The sheriff even deputized preacher, pastor, author, radio host and former law enforcement officer Carl Gallups of the PPSIMMONS blog in his pursuit of the truth.
“This investigation and its forensic conclusions in my opinion will vindicate a lot of people. That vindication includes the sheriff and his investigator of course but also president-elect Donald Trump. It also vindicates millions of Americans who dared to ask questions about this nefarious birth certificate and have been lampooned and marginalized by certain members of the press and other operatives for doing so. The investigation also vindicates those in the press who did have the guts to speak to this and to spend time investigating it, like WND,” Gallups said.
“I have a feeling that this matter is not over. Not by a long shot. I cannot imagine that authorized federal authorities will now not step in and investigate this matter to its conclusion.”
Investigators at that time they believed forgers committed two crimes. First, they said it appeared the White House fraudulently created a forgery that it characterized as an officially produced governmental birth record. Second, the White House fraudulently presented to the residents of Maricopa County and to the American public at large a forgery represented as “proof positive” of President Obama’s authentic 1961 Hawaii long-form birth certificate.
The investigators also said they had developed credible evidence that Obama’s Selective Service card was a forgery, based on an examination of the postal date stamp on the document. Also, records of Immigration and Naturalization Service cards filled out by passengers arriving on international flights originating outside the United States in the month of August 1961, examined at the National Archives in Washington, D.C., were missing records for the week of President Obama’s birth.
Arpaio said then a “continuing investigation” was needed, and his investigators set to work.
‘Preposterous notion’
WND reported in 2015 when the issue was raised in a CNN interview in which anchor Jake Tapper excoriated Arpaio for questioning Obama’s document.
See the interview:
On CNN’s “The Lead,” Tapper said, “You’ve trafficked in this rather preposterous notion that Obama was not born in the United States and that he may have forged his birth certificate that he released.”
He continued, “Why would you risk your credibility on issues you care about – like illegal immigration, like law enforcement – by getting involved in this nonsense?”
“What do you mean ‘risk’?” Arpaio asked. “I’m the chief law enforcement officer elected by the people. I have a right to investigate and speak out. I’m not talking about where he came from. I don’t care where he came from. We’re working on a fraudulent, forged government document. That’s what we are doing.”
Tapper interjected, “You’re maintaining that the birth certificate that the president of the United States revealed and released to the public, you’re maintaining that that is fraudulent?”
Obama’s birth certificate: It’s still in the news after all these years. Now get the No. 1 bestselling book that forced the release of the document being challenged anew as fraudulent in an official law enforcement report.
Wheres_the_birth_certificate_vindicated
“That’s right,” Arpaio responded.
The CNN host asked, “Is there anyone, any credible law enforcement person outside of you and your organization and your contractors, who has any agreement with you on this?”
“No, they haven’t looked at it,” Arpaio said. “What, are you kidding? I’m probably the only law enforcement official who has looked into it. Nobody looks into it. They shy away from it.”
Once again, a flustered Tapper interrupted: “Because the president was born in Hawaii.”
“I don’t care where he was born,” Arpaio replied. “I’m talking about a fraudulent government document, a birth certificate. That’s all I’m concerned with. That’s a violation of the law.”
Listen to “Aaron Klein Radio” clip of Joe Arpaio discussing Obama’s birth certificate:
Zullo has noted that Hayes, a document examiner who has served as expert witness for Seattle law firm Perkins Coie – the firm that flew an attorney to Honolulu to personally deliver two paper copies of the birth certificate to the White House – has concluded in a signed affidavit that the document posted on the White House website is “entirely fabricated.”
Also, at the time Obama was born, only a short time after Hawaii was admitted as a state, there were a number of ways a Hawaiian birth certificate could have been obtained without the person having been born in Hawaii.
Americans skeptical
Six years into Obama’s administration, WND reported a poll revealed nearly one-quarter of American adults didn’t even believe he’s a U.S. citizen, let alone a “natural-born citizen,” and another 17 percent were unsure.
Rasmussen Reports found 41 percent of Republicans believed Obama is not an American citizen, a belief shared by 21 percent of those who are unaffiliated and 11 percent of Democrats.
“Just over 20 percent of Republicans and unaffiliated adults also are not sure, but only 7 percent of those in the president’s party share that doubt,” the polling organization said in a report titled “Have We Got A Conspiracy for You – 9/11? JFK? Obama’s Citizenship?”
Overall, 23 percent said the theory that Obama is not an American citizen is true, and another 17 percent said they weren’t sure. Sixty percent reject the theory as false.
Ironically, in recent months it’s been, Obama, his wife Michelle, Secretary of State John Kerry and even his former Secretary of State, Hillary Clinton, who have raised the issue over and over.
It was during an appearance in Nairobi, Secretary of State John Kerry said he thanked the Kenyan president for giving America “a president of the United States” – a comment alluding to the contested issue of where Obama was born.
Get a commemorative “Where’s the Birth Certificate?” T-shirt – sure to be a collector’s item.
Kerry told Kenya’s foreign minister he had a conversation with Kenyan President Uhuru Kenyatta concerning the Olympic Games in Rio and President Obama’s birthplace:
I had the pleasure of beginning that meeting [with Kenyatta], as I want to begin this press conference this afternoon, by congratulating Kenya on something no nation’s athletes have ever before accomplished, and that is to win both the men’s and the women’s marathon races at the Olympic Games. Absolutely extraordinary. When I mentioned that to President Kenyatta, he promptly said to me, “Well, we also had a hand in helping you win a silver because the person who won came from Kenya.” (Laughter.)
“And I said, “Actually, Mr. President, you did better than a silver and a gold. You gave us a president of the United States.” (Laughter.) So you can see we had a very friendly and positive beginning to the conversation.
Watch the video of Kerry’s remarks:
Obama himself raised the question at the Democratic National Convention in Philadelphia, during an address in which he urged Americans to elect Clinton.
“You know, there’s been a lot of talk in this campaign about what America’s lost – people who tell us that our way of life is being undermined by pernicious changes and dark forces beyond our control,” Obama said. “They tell voters there’s a ‘real America’ out there that must be restored. This isn’t an idea that started with Donald Trump. It’s been peddled by politicians for a long time – probably from the start of our Republic.
“And it’s got me thinking about the story I told you 12 years ago tonight, about my Kansas grandparents and the things they taught me when I was growing up. They came from the heartland; their ancestors began settling there about 200 years ago. I don’t know if they had their birth certificates, but they were there.”
The mention of “birth certificates,” which prompted laughter and cheers from the crowd, was a deviation from the president’s prepared remarks, and comes just two nights after his wife, first lady Michelle Obama, brought up the issue of her husband’s citizenship and faith during her speech to the DNC.
At that time, Michelle Obama said one of her jobs in the White House was to teach her daughters “to ignore those who question their father’s citizenship or faith.”
She was referencing the challenges to her husband’s constitutional qualification for office as a “natural born citizen.”
Hillary Clinton “went birther” during a campaign appearance in Charlotte, North Carolina when she tweeted, “Someone who has never forgotten where he came from. And Donald, if you’re out there tweeting: It’s Hawaii.” –Hillary on @POTUS
Get the No. 1 bestseller that forced Barack Obama’s hand to release his controversial ‘birth certificate,’ now being challenged in an official law enforcement report.
Among the many records the Obama camp has refused to release are the marriage license of his father (Barack Sr.) and mother (Stanley Ann Dunham), name-change records (Barry Soetero to Barack Hussein Obama), adoption records, records of his and his mother’s repatriation as U.S. citizens from Indonesia, baptism records, Noelani Elementary School (Hawaii) records, Punahou School financial aid or school records, Occidental College financial aid records, Harvard Law School records, Columbia senior thesis, Columbia College records, record with Illinois State Bar Association, files from his terms as an Illinois state senator, his law client list, medical records and passport records.

Get commemorative “Where’s the Birth Certificate?” postcards. And who knows what President Trump may do to get to the bottom of this controversy once and for all.

2016年12月17日星期六

注意!美联储加息对黄金其实是个好事情


周四美联储如期加息,并暗示明年还要加三次。这把黄金投资者吓坏了,黄金赶紧从十个月低点再跌40美元,至1122附近。

那么,美联储加息真是黄金的大克星吗?GoldCore研究主管Mark O'Byrne表示,投资者不必惊慌,尽管美联储预计加息三次,但是从过去经验看,通常不能兑现。

Mark O'Byrne指出,去年底美联储加息时,也预计今年会加息三次,但一年过去了,只加了一次。美联储做什么,比它说什么更重要。 实际上,2008年以来,美联储大多数年份都信誓旦旦说要加息,但到现在只加了两次。

obyrne121516-2

美联储的言行不一,欺骗了许多真诚的投资者。

去年底,金价在美联储加息后从1050附近开启了一轮中期行情。反观今日,市场氛围与当时何其相似。

obyrne121516-3

Mark O'Byrne指出,利率本身上涨并不利空黄金,利空黄金的是扣除通胀的真实利率水平的上升。而目前还看不到上升的迹象。

通过观察历史数据发现,利率上升实际上是利好黄金的。距目前最近的例子是2003-2006年期间,美联储将利率从1%上调至5.5%,金价从300多美元每盎司一路上涨至最高700多美元每盎司。

QQ截图20161216160522

Mark O'Byrne认为,即使美联储加息,利率水平也处于零附近,而且大多数主要经济体的水平也处于零附近。这意味着持有黄金几乎没有机会成本。

特别是考虑到,目前政府债券已经存在泡沫,而央行极度宽松的货币政策即将终结,明年由巨量债务引发的偿债危机可能引发市场动荡。另外,特朗普当选也有望增加黄金的资本收益。

Mark O'Byrne预计,短期来看,金价或继续承压至年底,有望测试1100美元/盎司,但明年作为分散投资和对冲即将到来的风险,黄金的吸引力将再度变大。



2016年12月15日星期四

嘉享灣單位遇竊 戶主失逾41萬元銀條

搬到氣咳

現場是西灣河嘉亨灣6座一個住宅單位,早上10時許,男戶主外出返回時,發現夾萬內共值41萬元銀條不翼而飛,懷疑被爆竊,立即報警求助。

  警方接報到場調查,暫時無人被捕。

新興市場投資教父:伊斯蘭新教法利好黃金 明年將漲15%

新興市場投資教父Mark Mobius在迪拜舉行的黃金交流會上表示,新的伊斯蘭教法黃金投資標準將帶來創新和變革,並推動實物黃金市場更加透明,黃金將迎來發展機遇期。





 


這次伊斯蘭黃金交流會由世界黃金協會(WGC)和伊斯蘭金融協會會計和審計組織(AAOIFI)以及Amanie Advisors顧問公司共同舉辦。
Mark Mobius表示,新標準是上帝的饋贈,黃金有了一個全球化的標準,這是具有開創性的。
Mobius博士讓觀眾注意到新興市場以及全球16億伊斯蘭民眾以及大約1億的投資者帶來的黃金潛在需求。


 


Mobius強調,伊斯蘭教法的新標準對確定基礎資產,如實物金幣、金條的所有權非常重要。
Mobius表示,新的伊斯蘭黃金投資標準正式出爐是看多明年以及更長期黃金走勢的重要原因。 Mobius預計,受美聯儲加息逐漸放緩,黃金實物需求增加等因素推動,到2017年年底金價將上漲15%。


 

黃金頭條網站此前文章提到,12月5日,由世界黃金協會(WGC)和伊斯蘭金融協會會計和審計組織(AAOIFI)共同製定的伊斯蘭教法黃金投資標準(以下簡稱新標準)在世界伊斯蘭銀行業會議上被正式批准。
新標準將使得全球16億伊斯蘭民眾以從未有過的便捷方式投資黃金市場,預計將帶來2.4萬億美元的新增投資規模,對伊斯蘭金融發展具有重要意義。
目前,伊斯蘭金融市場規模為2萬億美元,只佔世界總規模很小的一部分,主要的投資渠道為股票、房產以及伊斯蘭債券 (sukuk)。


http://www.goldtoutiao.com/post/1615533 

JohnMauldin:特式升市停不了靈活策略不可少


JohnMauldin



美國總統交接期幾乎每天都有新驚喜,候任總統特朗普的發言人透露,特朗普在6月已經沽清所有股票,比他當選和面對利益質疑早了幾個月,從他當選後股市屢創新高看來,特朗普似乎走得太心急。不過他現在需要專注其他問題,早些離場也有好處。

至于其他投資者,現在需要做的是決定增持還是減持。面對股市處于曆史高位,財務和貨幣政策也來到轉折期,調整資產配置非常重要。長遠而言,股票估值的變化有決定性作用。

筆者相信未來數年將出現一些史上最大的泡沫,無論在國家債務,還是在政府承諾方面,而且不只在美國,全世界也一樣,並可能發展成一場前所未見的全球危機,目前無法知道導火線是什麼,不過本人正密切留意意大利。

投資組合的架構對投資者能否平安度過這場危機非常重要,要留意的是,今天很多人趨之若鶩的被動式資產管理將會是最差,而且破壞性最大的投資策略,投資者應該考慮其他選擇。

美股估值高得離譜
首先我們來個溫故知新。投資者持有的股票代表一間企業的一部分,每股價值也就相當于公司整體價值的一部分,公司價值就是預期未來盈利的現價值,而「預期」代表了不確定,這也是股價和估值波動的原因。要量度股票估值,最常見的指標是市盈率,也就是投資者願意為未來盈利支付多少錢,目前有很多市盈率和其他估值指標,協助投資者認清估值是過高還是過低。

在過去一個世紀,美股市盈率大部分時間處于10到25倍之間,低過10倍代表股票估值被低估,高過25倍就是被高估。目前3個版本的美股市盈率都處于接近或者高于25倍的水平,即估值過高,意味美股並非處于另一個長期牛市開端。

CMG Capital Management創辦人布盧門撒爾(Steve Blumenthal)認為,畢非德指標(Buffett Indicator)是另一個值得參考的估值指標。畢非德指標用上市公司股票的總市值與國內生產總值(GDP)做對比,從而判斷股市估值有沒有過高或者過低,總市值比GDP高就是估值過高,股神自己說過這是他認為最准確的估值指標。上市公司股票的總市值比GDP更高看來有點奇怪,但有時候的確會這樣。

目前畢非德指標雖然已經從2014年的高位回落,但仍然比2008年金融危機前高,對股市好友而言,這並不是個好消息,因為這代表估值目前超過應有水平很多。

此外,根據研究公司Ned Davis Research(NDR)的分析,標准普爾500指數的合理水平應該是1635點左右,但現時標指已經升到2250點。估值過高的情況可以變得更加嚴重嗎?當然可以,九十年代的科網泡沫就是個好例子,因此目前的高水平並不代表股市已經到頂,只是說明投資者需要非常小心謹慎,尤其共和黨將進駐白宮,其他國家的情況也不穩定,歐洲和中國都可能出現危機,導致全球經濟衰退,到時美國也不能幸免。

通常經濟出現衰退,股市也會跌入熊市,標指不會只跌到合理水平那麼簡單,而是會跌至估值過低的程度,NDR估計可能會跌到1134左右,那就是較目前水平低50%。

NDR認為美股從2009年開始進入長期牛市,但筆者認為美股一直處于一個很長的熊市,只是2009年開始有一個明顯的牛市周期,而下一個伴隨全球衰退而來的嚴重熊市,才會為這個長期熊市畫上句號。美股早就應該調整,現在距離上個20%調整已經1955天,比曆史平均的635天多出三倍以上,當然主要拜聯儲局、日本央行和歐洲央行的量寬所賜。

綜合前述,美股估值肯定過高,但過去一個月仍然多次創新高,這是否意味這股升勢可以持續到明年?

這次升市其中一個原因,是市場憧憬特朗普與共和黨控制的國會將增加基建和國防開支,但這並非已經確定的事,就算已經確定,通常在政府開支增加的時候,股市估值會下跌。

通脹加息不利升市
可能有人反駁,估值低是因為經濟增長低,增加開支就是為了推高增長,但如果你相信政府效率比私營企業低,那麼政府增加開支就是更多資金被錯配,對股市估值來說不是好事。

另一個升市理據是特朗普的新政策可刺激經濟,而且聯儲局可能延遲加息將推高通脹,對股市有利,但通脹其實不會來得那麼快。除了1979年至1981年外,股市在通脹上升期都是下跌【圖】,沒有上升,原因就是資源錯配。當然,除了增加開支外,特朗普政府還有其他動作,例如減稅、減少監管等等,令美國更加親商,但到底這些措施能否抵消開支和通脹上升的影響則是未知數。

另一方面,在利率上升時,股市的升勢通常不會持久,更有趣的是,全球股市在這些時候表現會比美股好,這意味投資者需要跳出傳統的多元化投資策略,尋找其他回報方法。

目前沒有證據顯示新牛市在望,但也不代表股市已經見頂。股市估值過高的時間可以比想象中長很多,而且可以變得更加嚴重。很多人都像我一樣擔心後市,但股市應該會在我們放下憂慮繼續入市之後才會見頂。

筆者覺得股市已經進入短線模式,想要繼續向上,因此基調是向好的,但同時波動性也在增加,美債等其他資產亦受挫,看來目前的市況令很多投資者感到混亂迷惘,這種時候最好是放手讓其他人來做決定,被動式資產管理受歡迎也是這個原因;但這等如聽天由命,是很不安全的做法,尤其是未來市況肯定會更加波動,投資者想要理想回報就應該返回主動式管理,要采取多元化的策略。

面對股市估值過高,經濟政治有很不穩定,2017年將是起落甚大的一年,投資者一定要做好准備。

共和黨人提出的減稅計劃中,企業減稅措施的影響肯定比個人減稅措施大很多。特朗普提出的最高企業稅率是15%,眾議院議長瑞安(Paul Ryan)則提出20%,看來這方面將有一番角力。

減稅計劃內藏玄機
不過,正如西方諺語所雲:「魔鬼藏在細節里」(the devil is in the details),眾議院賦稅委員會主席布雷迪(Kevin Brady)建議推出類似增值稅(VAT)的稅,並大幅削減企業稅,且可能向進口原料征收關稅。瑞安則建議大幅削減股息稅和資本利得稅,這些都會對企業盈利有很正面的影響。

然而,細看這些建議內容就會發現很多問題,例如向原料征稅將導致通脹大升,因為美國根本沒有足夠的原料去生產所有產品。雖然布雷迪的建議應可吸引外國公司到美國生產原料,但前提是其他國家沒有提出更加有利他們的稅務建議,市場是不是過分憧憬未來政策?沒有人可以肯定,但共和黨肯定需要開始整理一下未來施政策略。

筆者始終對未來抱謹慎樂觀的態度,雖然改革一定無法令所有人滿意,但至少是個大幅重塑整個稅制的機會。大部分美國人應該都會同意,目前稅制非常不健全,早就應該全面檢討。

也許這次市場猜得對,企業稅制大幅改革對盈利大有幫助,股票估值也將因此大升,因此投資者目前應該持多頭(long)策略,但需要能夠靈活變通,可以因應市況轉變而作出調整,而且因為隨時抽身離場做好准備,因為稅制改革有任何差錯都會造成災難性的影響。

金融市場討厭不穩定性,如果在施政策略細節出爐前,有人泄露了不利市場的風聲,整個牛市就會崩塌。特朗普和他的團隊應該很明白這種風險,只是希望他們的下屬──那些最有可能泄露風聲的人──也清楚了解這一點。

2016年12月12日星期一

特朗普入主白宮背後一個被忽略的因素


時寒冰
“朕遇光武,當並驅於中原,未知鹿死誰手。”《晉書·石勒載記下》中的這句話,意思是說不知在角逐中,政權將落在誰的手裡。
奧巴馬很快期滿卸任(下圖),希拉里與特朗普拼死搏殺,爭奪入主白宮的機會。





希拉里在與特朗普競選的過程中,幾乎一直認為自己已經勝券在握。在10月26日生日當天,希拉里直接寫下了這樣的話為自己祝福:‘Happy birthday to this future president.’(祝未來的美國總統生日快樂!)






得意之情溢於言表。希拉里甚至沒有準備敗選演講——從希拉里的敗選演講來看,顯然是臨時倉促準備的,因為這篇演講出現多處諸如語法這樣的低級錯誤。
然而,最終希拉里死在了特朗普手裡。
希拉里為什麼失敗?
她兩次出來說話,給了兩個原因。
第一次給出的原因:她歸咎於聯邦調查局局長詹姆斯·科米(下圖),希拉里認為,科米在臨近大選投票日前宣布重啟對“郵件門”的調查導致了自己的敗選





第二次,希拉里認為社交網絡(Facebook和Twitter等)大量的假新聞導致了自己的失敗。因此,她督促國會議員關注這個問題。希拉里說:“我想特別提到一個威脅,這應使所有美國人,共和黨人、民主黨人,無黨派人士特別是我們國會議員們關注:惡意假新聞和欺騙宣傳流行病今年已風靡社交網絡……現在很清楚,所謂'假新聞'可能對世界的現實後果。問題不在於政治或黨派傾向。人們的生活處於危險之中”。
希拉里終於認識到了一個非常重要的原因——假新聞,但她認識反了。
導致希拉里敗選的假新聞並非是Facebook和Twitter等上的假新聞,而是美國主流媒體(或說傳統媒體)的傾向性所營造的虛假氛圍,誤導了民眾——當然也誤導了希拉里本人。
此次總統大選期間,美國主流媒體的傾向性眾所周知。他們對特朗普的負面新聞集中報導,添油加醋進行強化的同時,對希拉里的負面消息進行弱化,甚至乾脆就不報導。

這種偏頗造成了完全相反的結果:它激起了民眾的反感和抵觸情緒,使得支持特朗普的選民投票率大大提升,而希拉里則由於民意調查一直領先特朗普而導致支持她的選民有所麻痺大意,投票的支持率受到了一定的影響。
筆者惜墨如金,為什麼要寫這個過去的事情呢?
我真正想說的是,無論是在美國,還是在其他國家(確切地說應該是“尤其是其他國家”),主流媒體都正在被民眾拋棄,很多所謂的主流媒體將陸續死亡!
我舉一個小例子。 9月份,筆者在北京參加了一場公益演講活動。主辦方在京城某知名媒體(發行量位居前三)發了廣告,幾天內只有幾個人報名,後來我和功夫財經在各自的微信公眾號發了預告,兩個小時報名4千多人
這種差異可謂天壤之別。
為什麼有這麼大的差異?
這裡麵包含著一個客觀性問題。

主流媒體的基礎是傳播最新的新聞,但這種新聞必須客觀——至少你必須努力追求客觀,但這正是主流媒體不可解決的問題。儘管所有媒體都明白客觀是新聞的生命,但是,主流媒體是由相關投資方或者乾脆是由政府控制的,本身有自己的利益訴求,而且,採編人員無論多麼想讓自己客觀,都免不了帶出自己的傾向性。而當這種傾向性與民意抵觸的時候,主流媒體自己並不明白(或者不願意明白)。
   
事實上,這種假設在現實中並不存在。
實際情況可能還要糟糕得多!
很多主流媒體以為自己控制著傳統渠道,不斷把自己的意志和觀點強加給讀者、觀眾,他們相信自己可以改變民意、操縱民意。他們無視權力肆意踐踏弱者權益的現實,他們無視正義被欺凌的現象,他們無視弱者渴望救助的眼神……他們眼裡只有讚歌。他們像一群被割了嘰嘰的太監一樣用令人憎惡的語調和蹩腳的令人作嘔歌詞嘰嘰歪歪地唱著讚歌,以此換取主人扔的肉骨頭。

儘管此間有少量有良知的媒體從業人員勇敢地站出來吶喊,但最終,他們都擺脫不了被自己供職的媒體開除的命運,更糟糕的結果,甚至是遭到被觸犯利益的相關黑手謀殺。
在社交媒體沒有出現的時候(就世界範圍而言,社會媒體分為兩種,一種是社交媒體,一種是中國社交媒體,本文中特指社交媒體),主流媒體想對民眾洗腦是有效果的,他們可以通過十年如一日的說謊對大眾進行洗腦,成功改變了許多信息渠道狹窄的人的思維模式。
但是,革命性的改變在社交媒體出現後發生了。
社交媒體與傳統媒體相比,最可貴的一點是,它只搭建平台,讓真實的聲音自由傳播! ——我絲毫不否認其中有假消息的出現,但在這樣的平台裡,假消息很快就會被識破。在透明的環境中,假消息是沒有生命力的而不透明的環境才是假新聞賴以大行其道的根本原因。
特朗普比希拉里更早地認識到了這一點。因此,特朗普孜孜不倦地在社交媒體上製造話題,打造影響力,而希拉里主要依托主流或傳統媒體的力量爭取民意的支持。
從這個角度來看,特朗普比希拉里更具有超前的眼光。
如果傳統媒體不找回自己的良知,不找回自己生存的根本客觀性,傳統媒體只會加速自己被淘汰的步伐,儘管一些主流媒體也開始借助網絡苟延殘喘,但他們由於眼睛盯著肉骨頭依然無法做回正常人的狀態。
主流媒體正在死亡,但並非所有的主流媒體都要走向死亡,那些認識到自己問題並及時修正,迅速向社交媒體靠近的媒體,將為自己贏得新生的機會。當然,我指的是可能性。
主流媒體應該明白:老百姓不是傻子,民意不可欺,失去客觀性,失去公正,失去最起碼的正義感與價值觀,失去最基本的底線,被民眾拋棄只是時間問題。


http://shihb.blog.sohu.com/

2016年12月9日星期五

德銀累行家!訴訟文件出事 曝露他行操縱銀價「天機」


2016-12-08 18:20:00 HKT

8個月前,德意志銀行了結一宗指控該行操縱黃金和白銀價格的訴訟。彭博報道,原告現在聲稱,和解協議所披露出的文件,為瑞銀集團、滙豐控股(005)、加拿大豐業銀行及其他公司操縱白銀市場提供「確鑿證據」。

買賣相關期貨合約的個人和實體,於2014年在曼哈頓聯邦法院發起訴訟,周三就此案提交的文件中出現了上述指控。

原告稱,德意志銀行交出的檔案顯示,交易員和提交員每天事先打電話協調交易,從而操縱白銀現貨市場,合謀確定報給客戶的價差,使用非法策略來操縱價格。

原告在提交文件中表示:「原告現在能夠憑借直接、確鑿的證據申辯」。這些證據包括秘密電子聊天紀錄--涉及到多家金融機構的白銀交易員和提交員多年來精心配合、大範圍共謀操縱價格。這個新騙局「遠遠超出了先前指控的合謀」。

報道指,原告正尋求以上述補充指控發起新訴訟的許可。他們擬提出的指控將案件範圍拓展到了起初被起訴的四家銀行之外,讓巴克萊、BNP Paribas Fortis SA、渣打(2888)和美國銀行的子公司也成為被告。一位法官今年駁回原告對瑞銀的起訴,但允許他們針對該行發起一項新訴訟。