2012年1月27日星期五

Leeb - Fed Game Changer Sparks 2nd Leg of Gold & Silver Bulls



With gold and silver making huge moves after the Fed announcement yesterday, today King World News interviewed acclaimed money manager Stephen Leeb, Chairman & Chief Investment Officer of Leeb Capital Management.  Leeb told us yesterday’s Fed announcement is a game changer that has kicked off a huge second leg in the gold and silver bull markets.  Here is what Leeb had to say:  “I think what the Fed said yesterday is game-changing.  They are opting for inflation and what really strikes me here, Eric, is they described their dual mandate in terms of employment first and price stability second.  I don’t know any central bank that would put maximum employment in front of price stability.  That’s not the mission of a central bank.  Again, I think this is absolutely a game-changer.”

Stephen Leeb continues:

“Inflation will be let out of the bag, maybe for the next three to four years.  In this environment gold and silver are the best investments around.  Resistance points on charts don’t even count anymore when you are talking about a game-changing event like this.  We are really talking about the next leg higher in this bull market.  I think yesterday will go down as the beginning of the next major leg higher in the bull market.  This is the leg I expect to take gold to $3,000 before the end of 2012. 

This is a very big change.  Just step back for a moment, the Fed is keeping interest rates at zero until the end of 2014.  That’s almost three years.  This is as aggressive as it gets and as bullish as it gets for gold.  When you are looking at resistance points, that was pre-yesterday. 

Today is a new chapter that starts with the title ‘Inflation is out of the bag.’  So the question becomes where does that take gold?.... 

“Well, look at the 1970s bull in gold.  After inflation really started to assert itself, gold went up another eight fold.



I think this is a critical point, the move we’ve had in gold, over the past decade, has been in anticipation of inflation.  We really haven’t seen gold react yet because inflation is still tame.  We’ve had eleven years of a first leg in gold.  Now we get the second leg and I say hold on to your hats because ultimately you are going to put another digit on the gold price.



This is more compelling than the 70s.  Keep in mind, during the 70s when real rates were decidedly negative for a long period of time gold went up eight fold.  Today that kind of advance would take us well over $10,000.  I maintain what we’ve seen so far is just preparation for what we are going to witness over the next five or six years as inflation ramps.  And once inflation starts to take off it will be very hard to stop.



Remember, China wants to eventually back the yuan with gold.  This is why they have been accumulating massive amounts of gold.  I predict in two or three years you will see oil priced in yuan or some basket in which the yuan is the central currency.  When the yuan becomes the world’s reserve currency they will control the game.



Eric Sprott’s point about the Chinese accumulating gold through Hong Kong is dead on, but China has also been mining a lot of gold.  They have been mining every single ounce possible.  They are in an incredible hurry to accumulate as much gold as they possibly can.



This is all part of the long-term strategy by the Chinese and it doesn’t play to our advantage.  My advice to everyone right now is, yes, gold is going to be volatile, but probably much less volatile, on the downside, than anything else out there and you should definitely own it.  You should also own silver because it’s definitely going into three digit territory.”

印度答應以黃金換伊朗的石油

India to pay gold instead of dollars for Iranian oil. Oil and gold markets stunned (January 23, 2012)

印度已答應以黃金付款的形式,從伊朗輸入的石油。預料中國向該國進口的石油亦即將跟隨。

印度和中國合共從伊朗每天輸入一百萬桶,即是伊朗二百五十萬桶總出口的四成。

以黃金作交易可以避過歐美的金融制裁。歐共體的石油輸入佔伊朗石油出口的兩成。

2012年1月26日星期四

The 2012 Australian Koala Silver Coin Series

 http://www.perthmintbullion.com
This video shows production of the 2012 Australian Koala silver bullion coin series at Australia's Perth Mint. Made from 99.9% pure silver, this year's coins portray a sleeping koala.The latest annual designs for the Australian Gold and Silver Bullion Coin Program from The Perth Mint. Issued as Australian legal tender, these 2012-dated gold and silver coins are for investors who want to buy bullion and collectors who want precious metal coins with annual design changes. Struck from 99.99% pure gold and 99.9% pure silver in a wide variety of sizes, the Program comprises the Australian Kangaroo, Australian Kookaburra, Australian Koala and Australian Lunar coin series which marks the Year of the Dragon.

救經濟 英央行將加印數十億英鎊鈔票

 今朝食早餐...價錢已經加到28蚊,.....救命呀

全世都要印銀紙渡日

英國國債超過一兆英鎊,大約四十五兆台幣。而為了讓經濟活絡起來,英國央行決定加印幾十億英鎊的鈔票。
英國國債正式突破一兆英鎊。也就是說,英國現在一個家庭必須負擔起四萬英鎊的國債。每個人身上的債就有一萬六千英鎊。
另外,由於英國今年的經濟成長率只有百分之零點六,所以,央行決定增加貨幣供給。英國央行多半利用從商業銀行括金融機構,買回國債的方式釋出貨幣。

http://tw.news.yahoo.com 

金價 年內目標2300




【on.cc 東方互動 專訊】 東方產經「群星匯」專欄作者溫灼培:黃金礦業服務公司(GFMS)估計,2012年上半年金價基本上只維持於1,640美元徘徊,到了下半年估計黃金的平均價格將提升至1,840美元,而在波幅變化中,屆時料金價有機會碰觸2,000美元。GFMS解釋,各國貨幣的長遠走勢均在不同程度上令人感到失望。經歷了金融海嘯,投資者已對美元失去信心;最近經歷了歐債危機後,投資者也同時對歐元感失望,這造就了黃金的特殊需求。

GFMS今年對金價的預測與筆者不謀而合,筆者看好黃金基本因素有四個:首先,金價從去年創下的歷史高位1,920美元已調整不少。其次,聯儲局承諾到2013年6月前也不加息,而下個月歐洲央行更有很大機會減息,金沒息收,環球主要貨幣息率偏低對金價有幫助。

第三,英國去年12月失業人數創十七年新高,加上通脹回軟,英倫銀行很大機會於下月加推500億英鎊量化金額。市場估計,承接歐洲央行於去年12月推三年期再融資操作貸款(LTRO)的成功,有機會於2月份再加碼推出更多同類貸款。當歐洲央行與英倫銀行齊齊印銀紙,料金價最為受惠。

最後,中國政府最近一反常態,積極轉向支持內地股市。先有總理溫家寶的撐股市言論,再有養老基金入市消息。中國現為全球最大黃金需求國,亦是全球經濟火車頭之一,國內股市一旦回升,對環球投資氣氛以至金價也可視為利好因素。建議逐步收集黃金,今年目標2,300美元。

恆生投資服務有限公司首席分析員 溫灼培

When Will Silver Reach a New High?

By Andrey Dashkov, Casey Research
In last week's Metals, Mining, and Money from Casey Research, Jeff Clark estimated that given the magnitude of the correction that started last September, it may take until May 2012 for gold to reach a new high. Let's take a look at how long it may take for silver to rebound.
It's a commonly known fact that silver is more volatile than gold. Already in this decade, silver has risen by a factor of 12 from its ten-year low ($48.70 vs. $4.07), while gold has seen about a sevenfold climb ($255.95 vs. $1,895).
This volatility – as you'll see in a minute – holds for corrections as well. On average, silver's retreats have been deeper and longer than gold's. The three big gold corrections we looked at last week averaged 22.8%. Take a look at the three biggest for silver, along with how long it's taken to recover and establish new highs.


The three biggest silver corrections in the current bull market average to 42.1%.
Our recent correction is the second biggest on record since 2001, but what really makes it stand out is the duration. The 2004 and 2006 declines took only five and four weeks respectively to reach their low points. And it was 31 weeks after the crash of 2008 that silver bottomed. Our current decline, measured from the peak reached on April 28, 2011 to its December 29, 2011 low, spans 35 weeks… quite the determined downtrend.
It also takes silver longer to recover than gold: gold's three biggest corrections required an average of 57 weeks and 6 days to regain their old highs, while it's taken silver's three biggest falls an average of 98 weeks and 4 days to catch up.
So how long will it take to recover from the 2011 slump? We don't know the future, of course, but the current correction is close to the average of the three in the chart, so let's apply the average recovery time to our current situation. The average 42.1% correction took 98 weeks and 4 days to recover; using the same ratio, a 46.3% correction would take 108 weeks and 3 days. Counting from the previous peak of April 28, 2011, we wouldn't break the $48.70 high until May 26, 2013 (based on London PM Fix prices).
It shouldn't come as a surprise that silver will take longer to return to its old high than what we found with gold in last week's article. Why? Half of silver's use is industrial, so a weak economy can drag down its demand. We certainly saw that in 2008.
And an exact date is pure conjecture, of course, and ignores fundamental factors that directly influence the price. 2011 is not 2008. In fact, we've already seen an interesting shift in investment activity in both gold and silver markets. The Silver Institute pointed out in a recent market report that "investor activity" was the biggest contributing factor to both last April's rally as well as September's selloff. Meanwhile, demand for physical metal has not only held firm but was projected by GFMS to reach a new record high in 2011.
Investment demand is rooted in the metal's monetary characteristics. It's not a stretch to say that we expect silver to regain its currency appeal soon, given the amount of worldwide fiat currency destruction. This will be perhaps the strongest catalyst for prices going forward. We wouldn't want to be without any silver.
If there's anything that sticks out from this bird's-eye view of the past ten years of data, it's that corrections are normal. And just as obvious is the fact that corrections end.
As with gold, the silver bull market is far from over, regardless of any weakness we may see in the near term. Don't be the impatient investor who gives up too early. And trying to time the market for a short-term profit shouldn't be the strategy in the midst of a long-term bull market. Instead, keep silver's fundamentals in mind: its industrial uses are growing and, like gold, silver is money.
That said, we believe that the window for buying silver at $30 won't be open for too long. The profit you someday realize from silver will be made buying now, when the price is low.
[Precious metals and precious metal stocks can be a solid way to store wealth, but only if you invest wisely. Don't let yourself be robbed.]


www.silver-prices.net