Is the Cartel Moving Silver from Scotia Vaults to the SLV to Meet Delivery Requests?

For the 3rd consecutive day (following the 1 million ounce withdrawal Monday and 651k ounce withdrawal Tuesday) we have a massive silver withdrawal to report from Scotia’s vault Wednesday.
SD reader Saddle has noted that the previous 2 silver withdrawals almost exactly equal a coinciding massive new silver deposit just reported into the SLV fund.
As Harvey Organ has long alleged, it would not surprise us if the cartel is currently scrambling to move around what little PHYSICAL silver they have left to meet delivery requests at the SLV.
Saddle notes:
I want to point out something very important. SLV is allowed to increase its inventory through paper contracts, physical, and futures. If you look at the SLV inventory for July 10, 2012 you’ll see it increased from 311,271,605.500 ounces up to 312,823,227.900. This is a net increase of: 1,551,622.4 ounces.
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Gold Manipulation Will Be Next Big Scandal to Break

The Telegraph’s Thomas Pascoe, who recently revealed that Britain’s gold was dumped on the market by Gordon Brown in order to rescue Goldman Sachs from a 2 tonne gold short position gone bad, follows Ned Naylor-Leyland’s comments on CNBC this week that gold is manipulated along with LIBOR, stating that gold manipulation may well be the next big scandal to break.

Pascoe rightly asserts that manipulation of gold is a bigger scandal than the manipulation of LIBOR, and states (as we first suggested) that the LIBOR scandal will result in MSM attention of precious metals manipulation for the first time.

In the aftermath of the Libor scandal, the Bank of England complained that it had received no forewarning from the marketplace.
Gold price manipulation may well be the next big scandal to break – if it does, this time nobody can say that they were not warned.

The new media and the 24-hour news cycle have a great deal to answer for, not least encouraging a political class which would otherwise be happily engaged expensing duck houses into the belief that it should demonstrate perpetual action on our behalf – hence the endless stream of badly drafted legislation from the corridors of Whitehall.

It does, however, reveal things that would otherwise be ignored. The issue of manipulation in the gold market which I wrote about last week is a case in point. The ball of half-truths and downright lies which have surrounded the issue for a long time is beginning to unspool in an issue internet activists kept alive long before it was acknowledged by the mainstream media.

People ask why the issue is important at a time of naked market manipulation of the Libor rate. The answer is simple: the Libor manipulation scandal can be seen as the thin end of the wedge in terms of government market manipulation.

Although Libor manipulation affects the interest rates we pay on all number of credit products, gold market manipulation is more serious still.

The price of gold is traditionally a proxy for the value of money. A soaring bullion price is indicative of a lack of faith in fiat currency.

Our financial system is predicated on the notion that money stands as a proxy for the factors of production – capital, labour, land and enterprise.

In short, the abundance of money in the economy should be related to the abundance of those factors. The harder we work, for instance, the more we create. There is more labour in the economy, therefore a rise in the money supply is legitimate in order to mirror this. There is nothing wrong with printing money per se so long as the printing reflects an expansion in the real economy.

Twentieth and Twenty-First century economics appears to have done away with this. Money is now created ex nihilo to feed both the top and bottom ends of society.
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專家：金價也可能像Libor一樣被操控

鉅亨網

Cheviot 投資主任 Ned Naylor-Leyland 周二 (10 日) 指出，黃金價格可能也像近日爆出的倫敦銀行同業美元拆借利率 (Libor) 醜聞一樣，長期以來受到金融機構操控。
Naylor-Leyland 於《CNBC》電視節目中指出，由英國銀行巴克萊 (Barclays) 引爆人為壓制 Libor 的相關醜聞，已啟動市場進行更多監督及調查行動。他預料接下來一、兩個月，還會爆出金價也受操控的消息，因為「黃金與白銀反映真實金錢價值的方式，與利率相同」。
Naylor-Leyland 進一步說明，金價受干預有兩個背景：一是各國央行眼見金價及銀價上漲，對自身國家貨幣價值不利；二是數家大型商業銀行擁有非常大的放空部位，他們想要經營這個部位來輕鬆獲利。

Naylor-Leyland 表示，美國當局對於銀價操控的正式調查，已持續進行了 2 年。雖然有很多證據證實操控情事，但調查卻還無結果。
捍衛公平金價的團體黃金反壟斷行動委員會 (Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee) 秘書長 Chris Powell 上個月也對《CNBC》表示，只要全球央行有興趣支持公債及美元，並壓低利率，他們就會繼續操控黃金市場。

聯匯脫勾與香港樓市關係系列完結篇

聯匯倘脫勾 新晉業主或陷負資產

 

前兩篇文章簡單分析了聯繫匯率脫勾如何影響樓市的走向。而對於樓市參與者的影響又會怎樣呢?
假設聯繫匯率脫勾，對於已經供完樓的業主來說，未必確切感受壓力，反而因港元大升引發的經濟問題會更切身。但對於仍在供樓的業主，尤以最近一、二年內置業者，很大機會會變成負資產，被銀行追差額，造成大量銀主盤出現。

另一方面，一旦樓市持續下跌，原先在本港持有大量物業的外國及內地投資者，為了鎖定利潤，降低投資風險，只好紛紛出貨套現，從而引致本港業主加入沽貨行動。市場供應量瞬間大增，香港樓市出現大跌的機會便在所難免了。

而對於暫時無樓人士，根據經驗，由於怕高位接貨，變成負資產，出於「買漲不買跌」的心態，在跌市的情況下，入市意慾會大減，令市場成交量及需求量大幅下跌。
在成交量及需求量減少的情況下，地產代理的生存空間無疑被縮窄了，而地產商則會施行大眾難以想像的情形 — 非劈價不可的賣樓苦況。

其實上述情況的出現與否，還是要視乎聯繫匯率脫勾以後，港元是自由浮動還是與人民幣／一籃子貨幣掛勾。另外，亦決定於聯繫匯率脫勾情況，是突然宣佈的還是循序漸進的。
聯繫匯率，關乎全港市民身家財產，不可輕言今天脫勾、明天受衝擊再掛勾，其存在意義及作用，有十分多值得深入研究和探討。 

余錦雄
世邦魏理仕大中華區估值及諮詢服務部資深董事總經理

聯匯脫勾與香港樓市關係系列之二

聯匯脫勾 樓按利息勢升

聯繫匯率制度其實是支持香港樓價由2009到2012年上升的重要支柱。由於聯匯的關係，香港必須跟隨美國的貨幣政策。在美國經濟衰弱的時候，香港被逼長期處於低息狀態，而住宅按揭利率更曾一度跌至2.5厘以下，吸引大量熱錢流入，令樓價持續高企。
假設港元不再跟美元掛勾，單從通脹數字來看（香港5月通脹為5.6%），香港不可能維持和美國一樣的低息環境，上調利率的機會很大。在目前的超低息的環境下，市民供樓負擔比率早已升近5成，接近歷史長期平均值。

假若以按息上升3厘來計算，一份20年期的按揭，每月供款大概上升3成。供款比率會出現高逾6成的現象。在這情形下，現有的供樓人士的負擔將會大幅上升，甚至令到部份正在供樓的香港人失去供樓能力。

當供樓人士的負擔一旦去到經濟能力的極限，只要經濟環境有甚麼風吹草動，就會無法供樓，從而急於拋售物業套現，觸發樓價下跌，令不少物業因而變成負資產，增加被銀行追收差額、變成銀主盤的可能。對樓市短期難免造成負面的影響。
因此，在考慮對現有聯繫匯率制度作出改變的時候，必須防範利息突變對以房產和金融為主經濟的香港所帶來的風險。

余錦雄
世邦魏理仕大中華區估值及諮詢服務部資深董事總經理

http://www.hkej.com/

聯匯脫勾與香港樓市關係系列之一

港元倘升值 買樓意欲降

 

香港是世界上少數實行聯繫匯率的地區之一，從1983年開始，香港的聯繫匯率制度沿用至今已有29年的歷史，令港元對世界主要貨幣匯率長期保持穩定。香港能成為國際金融中心，聯繫匯率制度可謂功不可沒。

最近，一手創立聯匯的前金管局總裁任志剛，發表了一篇題為《香港貨幣體制的未來》的學術性文章，提出將聯繫匯率脫勾，迅速引起了極大的回響。姑且勿 論現在是否脫離聯繫匯率的時候，因為在現階段很難說，但作為一個物業投資者、擁有者，又或者一個關心樓市的小市民，都有需要認真細看脫勾對樓市的衝擊，究 竟有多大及多廣泛。

首先，從匯率方面角度來看。自2008年金融海嘯以來，美國政府為了促進經濟， 長期維持極低利率。而港幣跟隨美元對人民幣大幅貶值，造成輸入性高通脹以及資產價格的大幅上升。
但由於聯繫匯率，香港喪失了貨幣政策的主導性和獨立性，導致本應升值的港元反而大幅貶值。按現時港幣被低估的情勢，一旦聯繫匯率脫勾，其幣值只會向上，不會向下。本來可以紓緩輸入性通脹，但是短暫而激烈的貨幣升值，勢必帶來資產價值的短期的急劇波動。

情況或如97年，港幣跟隨美元升值，導致物業價格大幅下挫。此時，港幣升值，由於現在樓市已在歷史高位，持有物業的部分投資者一定會賣掉物業套現，鎖定利潤，市場賣盤增多，而原來準備購買的投資者，也會因為港幣升值而減少買入意欲，造成樓市承接不足，令樓市出現下挫。
而下篇文章將會從利息角度淺析聯匯脫勾對樓市的影響。

 余錦雄
世邦魏理仕大中華區估值及諮詢服務部資深董事總經理

 

http://www.hkej.com/ 

Silver Prices Set to Explode to the Upside

The Silver Prices Set to Explode to the Upside says Jeb Handwerger , mainly due to disruption in production sites in Bolivia Peru Mexico and Argentina , shortage of supplies , silver to be viewed more as a safe heaven as the US Dollar is nearing its top with the bad news coming from the job market in the US and the probability of the FED having to implement a QE3 , all is highly bullish for precious metals and especially silver , the last time the FED did QE2 silver prices soared from $18 to almost $50 an ounce