HD Image
2012年6月9日星期六
Eric Sprott: GOLD ALERT
The latest Markets at a Glance newsletter touches on a few of the topics that Eric and I discussed in depth this morning in his interview with SilverDoctors which will be released this weekend discussing the European debt crisis, Thursday’s gold and silver raid, and tightness in the physical precious metals markets.
GOLD ALERT
By Eric Sprott and Shree Kargutkar
There have been key developments in the physical gold market over the last few weeks which we feel are worth highlighting:
1) The Chinese gold imports from Hong Kong in April, 2012 surged almost 1300% on a YoY basis. Total gross imports for the month of April were 103.6 tonnes and the net imports were 66.3 tonnes1. It is not the data for April alone which has caught our eye. There has been a stunning increase of gold imports through Hong Kong for export into China over the past 2 years. Between May 2010 and April 2011, China imported a net 66 tonnes of physical gold through Hong Kong. Between May 2011 and April 2012, that number jumped to 489 tonnes. This represents an increase of 640%.
Source: Census and Statistics Department of Hong Kong
2) Central banks from around the world bought over 70 tonnes of gold in April, 2012. Data from the IMF showed developing countries such as the Philippines, Turkey, Mexico and Sri Lanka were significant buyers of gold as prices dipped2.
3) Iran purchased $1.2B worth of gold in April, 2012 through Turkey. As the developed nations continue devaluing their currency at the expense of developing nations, countries such as Iran, China and Mexico are forced to look at alternative stores of value3.
4) After twenty years of lackluster returns and stagnant bond yields, Japanese pension funds have finally discovered the value of investing in gold. The $500M Okayama Metal and Machinery pension fund placed 1.5% of its assets into gold bullion-backed ETFs in April in order to “escape sovereign risk”4.
5) Bill Gross writes5, “Soaring debt/GDP ratios in previously sacrosanct AAA countries have made low cost funding increasingly a function of central banks as opposed to private market investors. Both the lower quality and lower yields of previously sacrosanct debt therefore represent a potential breaking point in our now 40-year-old global monetary system. […] As they (investors) question the value of much of the $200 trillion which comprises our current system, they move marginally elsewhere – to real assets such as land, gold and tangible things, or to cash and a figurative mattress where at least their money is readily accessible”. Is the bond king recommending gold? YES, YES YES!
6) The Gold Mining ETF, GDX, has seen strong inflows in the past 3 months. The number of units outstanding have increased from 162.5M6 to roughly 187M7 between March 1, 2012 and May 31, 2012. This represents an increase in assets of almost $1.2B in a span of 3 months. It is worth pointing out that for a majority of this three months period, GDX, and by extension the gold mining companies were experiencing significant declines in their market values.
We believe there has been a material change in the gold investing landscape. The HUI, which is the Gold Bugs Index, is now up over 20% from its lows since May 16th, 2012. The slide in gold equities seems to be subsiding as a foundation for a strong move upwards is set. New buyers, represented by the Chinese, central banks, Japanese pension funds and the Iranians, bought almost 140 tonnes of gold in April alone. To put this into perspective, the annual gold production is approximately 2600 tonnes8. China and Russia produce around 500 tonnes of gold annually, which never makes it to the open market. This leaves about 2100 tonnes of gold production annually for the rest of the world.
When buyers representing 140 tonnes of new demand enter a market which only has 175 tonnes of monthly supply, we are left wondering about two things:
1) In a balanced market, where is the source of supply to the new buyers going to come from?
2) How can a new buyer of size get into the gold market, which is already balanced, without significantly impacting the price of gold?
The answer is fairly obvious. When demand outstrips supply, prices move higher. These significant macro changes in the supplydemand dynamic of the gold market should propel the price of gold to new highs.
Marc Faber : Gold Price already Hit Bottom
Marc Faber : "I'm not sure that Gold will not make a new high this year, but I think we've bottomed out and some gold mining shares have become very very inexpensive compared to the reserves they have. And i think that in the current environment where it is clear that the worse the economy becomes the more the money printers will be at work, that to own a currency whose supply can not be increased at the will of some clowns that occupy the central banks is a desirable investment." - in Bloomberg TV
London Trader - Staggering 515 Tons of Gold Sold in 4 Hours
With
many global investors still rattled by the recent price action in gold
and silver, today King World News interviewed the “London Trader” to get
his take on these markets. The source told KWN that not only was a
shocking amount of paper gold sold in just 4 hours yesterday, but it was
also confirmed that the mainstream media is not reporting the
staggering amount of physical gold that has actually been purchased by
China recently. Here is what the source had to say: “China
has purchased hundreds of tons of gold in the last couple of months.
China is not disclosing what their true reserves are. Russia is
delaying disclosure and so is Iran. We saw record gold imports of over
100 tons through Hong Kong to China in April, as reported by the
mainstream media, but what has been reported is just the tip of the
iceberg.”
The London Trader continues:
“What we've seen is a
dramatic acceleration of physical gold purchases as the price has been
drawn down. Staggering amounts of physical gold are being purchased.
The acceleration of physical purchases, at these lower levels, is the
reason why gold has been holding firm and building such a nice base.
“What happened yesterday in the gold market
was very interesting. One full hour before Bernanke's testimony, the
bullion banks started selling. Over the next 4 hours, the bullion banks
sold the equivalent of 515 metric tons of paper gold. This was in just
4 hours, and again, the selling started one hour before Bernanke’s
testimony.
The selling went on for
another 3 hours after the Fed Chairman began to speak, and as I said,
over 515 metric tons of paper gold was sold. During this entire
takedown, there was zero physical gold available for sale in the
market. However, this action did create tremendous supply for the
Eastern buyers to lock in the spot price of gold. This will patiently
be converted to physical in the coming weeks.
The real question here is,
how could an entity begin selling such a massive amount of paper gold
when there hadn’t been any news (starting to sell before Bernanke's
testimony)?
During this coordinated
attack on gold, hedge funds and managed money were being forced out of
their paper positions. A large wave of selling entered the paper gold
market and traders saw the price of gold drop $40 in a matter of
minutes. So the action was orchestrated by the Fed, and Fed-speak was
used to assist in the takedown.
On the opposite side, the
rise we saw last Friday was not a natural rise, it was a squeeze of the
hedge fund shorts. After squeezing the hedge fund shorts on Friday and
actually getting them to take on some long side exposure because gold
took out key resistance levels, they then dropped the gold market like a
stone yesterday. So the commercials are ringing the register at both
ends of the tape. But in reality, what the bullion banks are trying to
do is to get out of some of the massive naked short positions that are
on the books.
During all of the chaos of
the last couple of months, the Eastern hemisphere have been vacuuming
physical metal out of the market. However, supply is very tight out
there. As I mentioned earlier, no physical gold was for sale yesterday
during the takedown, just paper gold. Gold actually went into
backwardation, and silver has actually been in backwardation for weeks.
For immediate delivery of gold, in size, we are seeing delays, but
silver is extraordinarily backlogged.
Also, there was an
absolutely staggering amount of silver that was purchased by an Eastern
buyer three weeks ago near the $27 level. This order was breathtaking
in terms of the size. It is currently queued up at two refiners, but
has been backlogged for the last three weeks and running. In other
words, we are looking at serious backlogs for physical silver.
So as I said earlier, the
bullion banks are ringing the register at both ends, while trying to
extricate themselves from their short positions in the paper market.
They are attempting to do this before transparency comes in to the
market. They do not want a situation where the aggressive hedge funds
actually get evidence that these bullion banks are naked short.
They are concerned that if
it is discovered they are naked short gold and silver, those hedge funds
will aggressively target those banks. This is what happened to JP
Morgan, recently, when the London Whale got caught. As soon as Jamie
Dimon was forced to admit a $2 billion loss, the sharks realized they
were vulnerable and came in to attack. That has greatly magnified the
size JP Morgan’s loss. The last thing powerful entities want to see is
for this to occur in the gold and silver markets.”
分析師Kilburg：各國央行將點燃黃金 今年直沖2000美元
鉅亨網
這項展望讓投資人期待又怕受傷害：全球央行採取聯合行動，紓困歐洲，解救世界。
但周四的情況顯示各國之間，難以協調。第一，中國大陸亦升息亦降息。第二，Fed主席伯南克在國會進行聽證會，他的談話一如他在任期內所說：Fed準備採取行動，我們會保持警戒。
然而，Kilburg Capital公司分析師Jeff Kilburg認為，伯南克只是暫時按兵不動。
Kilburg說，Fed可能與其他國家央行同步採取行動。當這天來臨時，一項資產將掩蓋所有其他資產。「央行的聯合行動，將推高黃金價格，」他大聲說道。「大局而言，黃金將會走高。」
央行買盤，美元下跌，及12年之久的多頭市場動能，讓12年之久的多頭走勢將會持續。Kilburg想在各各層面做多黃金，包括買進黃金類股。
Kilburg建議在目前水準，買進黃金，預期1523美元為重要支撐。
他說：「我預期黃金將上漲至2000美元，沒錯，2000美元，今年秋季將會見到。」
這項展望讓投資人期待又怕受傷害：全球央行採取聯合行動，紓困歐洲，解救世界。
但周四的情況顯示各國之間，難以協調。第一，中國大陸亦升息亦降息。第二，Fed主席伯南克在國會進行聽證會，他的談話一如他在任期內所說：Fed準備採取行動，我們會保持警戒。
Kilburg說，Fed可能與其他國家央行同步採取行動。當這天來臨時，一項資產將掩蓋所有其他資產。「央行的聯合行動，將推高黃金價格，」他大聲說道。「大局而言，黃金將會走高。」
央行買盤，美元下跌，及12年之久的多頭市場動能，讓12年之久的多頭走勢將會持續。Kilburg想在各各層面做多黃金，包括買進黃金類股。
Kilburg建議在目前水準，買進黃金，預期1523美元為重要支撐。
他說：「我預期黃金將上漲至2000美元，沒錯，2000美元，今年秋季將會見到。」
2012年6月8日星期五
聯準會通過新規 美銀行業資金缺口達600億美元
美國聯準會總部大樓。(圖:聯準會官網)
外國媒體周五（8日）報導，依據聯準會（Fed）最新通過的金融監管規定，19 家美國大型銀行為符合巴賽爾III 協定，將有 500 億美元資金缺口必須補足。
聯準會估計，較小型銀行的整體資金缺口也有約 100 億美元。
聯準會周四以匿名投票方式通過這項議案，為提昇金融業者在未來抵禦金融衝擊的能力邁出關鍵的一步。
為降低全球金融風險，世界主要國家在 2010 年 9 月一致同意遵守巴賽爾資本規定；在 2013 年-2019 年將逐步導入的第 3 版協定中，銀行資本適足率也將由目前的 2% 提高至 7%。
聯準會官員表示，多數銀行未來幾年透過提高營收獲利，應該就能達到這項水準，毋需透過市場集資來完成。
負責銀行監管的聯準會委員 Daniel Tarullo 說，雖然這項資本規定「對構築一個強健、具應變力的金融體系來說仍不足，但絕對是必要的一步」。
此案由聯準會通過後，還須取得聯邦存款保險（Federal Deposit Insurance Corp）以及財政部貨幣監理署（Comptroller of the Currency）同意；上述兩家機構預定本月 12 日進行審理，一旦完成將公開徵詢各方意見，再送交國會作最後表決。
內地黃金進口再創新高：趁金價回調“抄底”？
[我國內地黃金進口創新高并非和金價大幅回調“偶遇”，從其他市場出逃的資金以及內地黃金廠商的囤購或許是進口增長迅速的推手]
從低迷的地產、A股中擠出的資金似乎想來金市“抄底”。
香港特區政府統計處的最新4月數據顯示，中國內地從香港進口黃金再創紀錄，裝貨量從3月的62913千克躍升到4月的103644.5千克(103噸)，
增幅高達65%，高於3月59%的環比增幅。而根據Bloomberg的計算，中國內地2012年前4個月總共從香港進口黃金239174千克，遠遠高於
2011年同期的27114千克，同比增幅高達782%。
和我國內地繼續增長的黃金需求成鮮明對比，另一大傳統的“吸金大戶”——印度今年以來的黃金需求遭到多重因素打擊。新增的黃金消費稅和兩次上調黃金進口關 稅及盧比貶值令該國一季度黃金飾品需求年率下降19%，至152噸，投資需求年率下降46%，至55.6噸。除外，印度一季度黃金進口量預計自去年同期的 283噸下降68%，至90噸，而整個2011~2012財年，印度的黃金進口量僅為655噸，較之前財年下降32.4%。
中國內地上述超越印度的舉動主要發生在國際金價大幅回調期間。在內地進口黃金最火爆的三四月份，紐約和倫敦兩地金價恰逢從每盎司1790美元左右的年內高 點回撤的階段，這一波下調一直持續到5月16日的每盎司1527美元附近，金價在5月中下旬到如今6月初才出現反彈的苗頭。有業內人士指出，我國內地黃金 進口創新高并非和金價大幅回調“偶遇”，從其他市場出逃的資金以及內地黃金廠商的囤購或許是進口增長迅速的推手。
一位貴金屬分析師就表示：“在印度黃金需求疲軟之際，中國內地的黃金需求能逆勢上升，其中一個原因可能就是股市和地產資金介入黃金市場，激發投資需求猛 增。”他解釋說，在中國的黃金市場，黃金投資需求和飾金需求占主導。而傳統的春節、五一、中秋、國慶這幾個節日所在的月份，飾金需求明顯高於其他月份，4 月份之內并沒有這些重大節日，因此可以排除是飾金需求推動了進口增長。而投資需求對價格非常敏感，其價格彈性系數大，金價下跌后激發了逢低買盤。從 2011年9月份黃金的歷史高點1920.3美元，到2012年4月份階段性低點，金價已經回調了15%以上，這或許促使了一些抄底資金的介入。
這些抄底的資金中就有可能包括股市里出逃的資金。該分析師指出，A股市場整體從2008年之后就一蹶不振，在缺乏做空機制的情況下，難以讓股民獲利，故有 大量的資金流出股市，并在市場上掀起了一股退出股市潮。而之前很受資金青睞的房地產，至2010年國家宏觀調控以來，資金就開始有序的退出。加之中國投資 渠道窄，資本項目尚未完全開放（國內資金很難走出去投資），因此可能有股市和房地產資金轉入黃金市場。
根據世界黃金協會的《2011年黃金需求趨勢報告》，去年中國黃金需求為769.8噸，同比上升20%，最大的增長來自投資領域，投資額達845億元，同 比上升69%。可見中國黃金需求的增長，主要受益於投資需求的拉動。而今年4月份中國進口黃金猛增，也不排除地產和股市資金的介入。
中國內地的金商可能也是進口的推動力之一。上述分析師稱，各類金商產品在國際金價的基礎上加價很高，一般是50元~100元/克，有些企業也并沒有套保的 習慣。不少廠商習慣於在金價回調到一定的價位后集體囤貨。而4月份是金價的一個相對的低點，不排除金商集體囤貨、使得內地進口黃金出現井噴的可能。
此外，他還猜測，雖然我國央行的黃金儲備數據一直為1054.1噸，與2009年沒有變化，但不排除有暗中購金操作。這是因為我國央行儲備黃金，一般不會 從國際市場直接購買（從之前幾次增加黃金儲備推斷），而是從國有黃金企業購買，或者自己提煉，因此，單純從數據中難以發現央行購金的蹤跡。不過他表示，目 前中國有著33049.71億美元外匯儲備，黃金在外匯儲備中的占比僅為1.7%，明顯低於全球平均水平，從這個角度反推，中國央行有增加黃金儲備、調整 外匯儲備結構的需求。另外，“陰魂不散”的歐元區債務問題，可能會使中國購入的歐洲債券面臨縮水，這可能會使中國央行意識到外匯儲備過於龐大并不是件好 事，而黃金無疑成為配置資產的最佳選擇。
從低迷的地產、A股中擠出的資金似乎想來金市“抄底”。
和我國內地繼續增長的黃金需求成鮮明對比，另一大傳統的“吸金大戶”——印度今年以來的黃金需求遭到多重因素打擊。新增的黃金消費稅和兩次上調黃金進口關 稅及盧比貶值令該國一季度黃金飾品需求年率下降19%，至152噸，投資需求年率下降46%，至55.6噸。除外，印度一季度黃金進口量預計自去年同期的 283噸下降68%，至90噸，而整個2011~2012財年，印度的黃金進口量僅為655噸，較之前財年下降32.4%。
中國內地上述超越印度的舉動主要發生在國際金價大幅回調期間。在內地進口黃金最火爆的三四月份，紐約和倫敦兩地金價恰逢從每盎司1790美元左右的年內高 點回撤的階段，這一波下調一直持續到5月16日的每盎司1527美元附近，金價在5月中下旬到如今6月初才出現反彈的苗頭。有業內人士指出，我國內地黃金 進口創新高并非和金價大幅回調“偶遇”，從其他市場出逃的資金以及內地黃金廠商的囤購或許是進口增長迅速的推手。
一位貴金屬分析師就表示：“在印度黃金需求疲軟之際，中國內地的黃金需求能逆勢上升，其中一個原因可能就是股市和地產資金介入黃金市場，激發投資需求猛 增。”他解釋說，在中國的黃金市場，黃金投資需求和飾金需求占主導。而傳統的春節、五一、中秋、國慶這幾個節日所在的月份，飾金需求明顯高於其他月份，4 月份之內并沒有這些重大節日，因此可以排除是飾金需求推動了進口增長。而投資需求對價格非常敏感，其價格彈性系數大，金價下跌后激發了逢低買盤。從 2011年9月份黃金的歷史高點1920.3美元，到2012年4月份階段性低點，金價已經回調了15%以上，這或許促使了一些抄底資金的介入。
這些抄底的資金中就有可能包括股市里出逃的資金。該分析師指出，A股市場整體從2008年之后就一蹶不振，在缺乏做空機制的情況下，難以讓股民獲利，故有 大量的資金流出股市，并在市場上掀起了一股退出股市潮。而之前很受資金青睞的房地產，至2010年國家宏觀調控以來，資金就開始有序的退出。加之中國投資 渠道窄，資本項目尚未完全開放（國內資金很難走出去投資），因此可能有股市和房地產資金轉入黃金市場。
根據世界黃金協會的《2011年黃金需求趨勢報告》，去年中國黃金需求為769.8噸，同比上升20%，最大的增長來自投資領域，投資額達845億元，同 比上升69%。可見中國黃金需求的增長，主要受益於投資需求的拉動。而今年4月份中國進口黃金猛增，也不排除地產和股市資金的介入。
中國內地的金商可能也是進口的推動力之一。上述分析師稱，各類金商產品在國際金價的基礎上加價很高，一般是50元~100元/克，有些企業也并沒有套保的 習慣。不少廠商習慣於在金價回調到一定的價位后集體囤貨。而4月份是金價的一個相對的低點，不排除金商集體囤貨、使得內地進口黃金出現井噴的可能。
此外，他還猜測，雖然我國央行的黃金儲備數據一直為1054.1噸，與2009年沒有變化，但不排除有暗中購金操作。這是因為我國央行儲備黃金，一般不會 從國際市場直接購買（從之前幾次增加黃金儲備推斷），而是從國有黃金企業購買，或者自己提煉，因此，單純從數據中難以發現央行購金的蹤跡。不過他表示，目 前中國有著33049.71億美元外匯儲備，黃金在外匯儲備中的占比僅為1.7%，明顯低於全球平均水平，從這個角度反推，中國央行有增加黃金儲備、調整 外匯儲備結構的需求。另外，“陰魂不散”的歐元區債務問題，可能會使中國購入的歐洲債券面臨縮水，這可能會使中國央行意識到外匯儲備過於龐大并不是件好 事，而黃金無疑成為配置資產的最佳選擇。
訂閱：
文章 (Atom)