中国基准价格将源自上海黄金交易所新的1千克合约为保证透明度，合约每天将交易几分钟。
此前华尔街见闻报道，伦敦洲际交易所(ICE)2月初曾宣布LBMA黄金价格将从3月开始正式取代伦敦黄金定盘价，而中国多家银行或将参与设定黄金定盘价。
2014年10月，中国第二大国有银行建设银行宣布成为LBMA普通会员，工商银行和中国银行也是LBMA会员。
目前的伦敦黄金定盘价由法国兴业银行、加拿大丰业银行、花旗和巴克莱这四家银行，每天通过电话会议，根据各自的买卖盘价格，分别报出买入价和卖出价，据此确定价格。这四家银行去年7月时均发表声明称，会将黄金基准定价的管理权移交给新的第三方机构。
It seems the longer the Federal Reserve and its representative bullion banks keep a manipulative lid on the price of gold using paper gold naked shorts, the more physical gold the Chinese buy:
From PM Fund Manager Dave Kranzler, Investment Research Dynamics:
We can see elevated gold purchases on wholesale level (SGE withdrawals) of late, rapidly being sold to end consumers in the shops at the moment. China Gate News Channel reported on January 3rd a “stampede phenomenon” in a shopping mall in Beijing, were gold was sold at a rate of 400,000 yuan per minute (Bullionstar.com)
On the Shanghai Gold Exchange itself, another 59 tonnes were withdrawn last week (Bullionstar.com). That makes a total of 374 tonnes YTD, which is up 17% year over year. Please note: This does not take into account the amount of gold being accumulated by China’s Central Bank, The Peoples Bank of China. The PBOC is the only entity in China that is not required to source its gold from the SGE. Here’s a snapshot of the of the massive gold accumulation going on in China (source: goldchartsrus.com):
It is highly probable that China’s gold accumulation, including whatever amount the PBOC is taking down, exceeds the annual global mine supply. While the Fed/US Government maintains a tight policy of using paper gold to suppress the natural market price, the eastern hemisphere continues to gorge on cheap gold. By the time the mainstream in the west wakes up to what is going on, it will be too late.
While everyone is currently worried about what will happen to the euro and the EU if Greece defaults on its debt, one has to wonder what will happen when the west – specifically the Fed/bullion banks – defaults on its massive paper/leased/hypothecated gold short position, the size of which dwarfs the amount of outstanding sovereign Greek debt.....
上个月，澳大利亚、印度、墨西哥等国家降低了利率。中国降低了银行准备金率，丹麦开始实行负利率。
即使最为强调稳定的国家也做出了意外的调整。降息之外，瑞士央行意外地放弃了瑞士法郎兑欧元的汇率下限。几天后，新加坡也意外地调整了外汇政策。
更重要的是，欧洲央行承诺实施规模庞大的开放式资产购买计划。尽管有越来越多的警告称，货币刺激政策不但难以推动持续增长，还会推高金融市场的风险偏好，威胁到经济稳定和繁荣；欧洲央行还是决定推出QE。
虽然美国经济比其他发达国家都要强劲，但是美联储在谈到加息时也表示，需要保持耐心。如果就业机会增加伴随着工资增长，那恐怕这种稳定将难以持续。
众多央行新一轮举措反映了对经济增长的持续担忧。尽管此前的货币刺激总量大的令人难以置信，但全球产出依然低于潜在水平，且产出可能走低。
更糟糕的是，疲软的需求和巨额债务使欧元区和日本的通缩预期升温。普通家庭预期商品价格下降，就会推迟他们的消费。公司则会推迟投资，使得经济陷入难以逃脱的下滑通道。
如果产生影响的只有疲弱需求和高债务，那最近的一轮货币刺激就可以直截了当。可惜并非如此。影响经济增长的障碍在很大程度上依旧没有解决，央行没有办法凭一己之力解决这些问题。
首先，央行难以推动结构性的调整，比如基础设施投资、劳动力市场改革和促进经济增长的财政预算改革。这些都推动经济复苏所不可或缺的。不仅如此，央行也难以解决总需求的不平衡，即企业、家庭和政府间消费能力和意愿的差距。此外，央行也无法解决部分区域和人群的高负债。而正是高负债阻碍了新投资和增长。
因此，货币政策对于促进经济增长、稳定通货膨胀、和促进金融稳定而言，效果越来越难以预期。央行被逼上了一条非常不理想的政策道路——因为他们的宽松措施可能会引发不宣而战的货币战争。除了美联储，不少央行都担心本币升值将影响国内企业竞争力。事实上，越来越多的央行正在积极地推动本币贬值本国货币。
世界上最为重要的三大经济体——欧元区、日本和美国，在经济表现和货币政策问题上的差异已越来越大。这给世界其余国家带来不少困惑，尤其是哪些开放的小型经济体。事实上，新加坡和瑞士意外的举动就是对这种差异的直接回应。 丹麦决定停止销售政府债券以降低利率，对抗克朗升值，也是出于同样的原因。
当然，并不是所有的币种都可以在同一时间贬值。当前的贬值大潮尽管不是很理想，但很可能持续一段时间，只要以下两个条件能够满足。
第一个条件是美国愿意继续容忍美元的大幅升值。美国的公司已经频频警告美元走强对其收益的负面影响，更不用说外来游客的下降以及不断恶化的贸易逆差。美国是否会放任美元升值是个不定因素。
尽管如此，只要美国能保持经济和就业机会持续增长，美元升值的负面影响应该不会引发强烈的政治回应。毕竟，外国经济活动对美国GDP贡献甚微。事实上，美国与世界各国复杂的贸易关系将企业和家庭放在生产和消费的等式两边。这是的贸易保护主义在美国难得人心。
当前的经济基本面和金融市场的风险水平并不匹配，金融市场的参与者是否愿意承担这一风险，是决定全球货币贬值潮是否会持续的另一因素。作为当下金融市场实质上最好的朋友，央行在努力推高市场的风险偏好，这并非易事。但是，考虑到可能引发的种种危险，各国央行在这点上只能成功不能失败。
不过，央行最终仍需退出刺激政策。现在的问题是，戒除货币刺激的毒瘾有多难；全球货币战是否会加速央行退出。
2015-02-15 10:35 环球网
近几年全球各国央行一直是黄金净买家，不过也有一些国家的央行在出售，其中比较突出的就是乌克兰。
经历了一系列的不稳局势后，乌克兰目前的黄金储备已经下降了44%至24吨。
另外，在第三期央行售金协议(CBGA)的最后一年，各国央行总共出售了6.8吨黄金，而在第四期售金协议的第一年，各国央行目前只出售了不到0.5吨黄金。由此更可以看出央行对黄金态度的转变。
(俄罗斯、土耳其、墨西哥、中国和印度央行持有变化)
[提要] 亚利桑那州上周三(2月4日)的一个国会委员会投票通过，规定黄金和白银为法定货币，可做商业流通。此次亚利桑那州的法案通过后，该地区的金币在出售和买入时，无需再支付资产利得税。
亚利桑那州上周三(2月4日)的一个国会委员会投票通过，规定黄金和白银为法定货币，可做商业流通。
此次提案通过的最大意义在于，那些投资金币的投资者在税款方面可有收益。
作为商品的黄金和白银在买入和卖出时，投资者的收益将必须支付税款。此次亚利桑那州的法案通过后，该地区的金币在出售和买入时，无需再支付资产利得税。
QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong, its seems rather clear that for the last 30 years you would have been far better off just buying stocks rather than gold. I do not understand how people can even listen to these gold promoters who have no regard for a person’s financial survival. I have to wonder if they are not being paid on the side by the bankers. My question is rather simple. Going into 1999, central banks were selling gold. Now the Swiss voted their central bank can sell off its gold reserves. The new generations do not buy what these promoters keep preaching.The do not believe even owning a home is a form of savings. Will the central banks start selling gold since they are dead broke if not not to try to stimulate the economy since we have negative interest rates? I think you may be correct again but the fundamental may be these people are so broke they sell everything.
As the WSJ noted [4], the "world’s top finance leaders on Tuesday in effect backed currency depreciation as a tool for promoting growth by signaling strong support for aggressive easy-money policies aimed at boosting the fragile global economy." Spot the person who just realized it's not going to work.
[5]
Source: WSJ [4]
海兰泡市的俄罗斯
凤凰财经讯 2月11日消息，据英国天空新闻网报道，布拉戈维申斯克市（Blagoveshchensk，中文名“海兰泡”）是俄罗斯阿穆尔州的首府，俄罗斯远东地区第三大城市，同中国黑龙江省黑河市隔岸相望。布拉戈维申斯克在俄语中的意思是“好消息的城市”，不过这样的寓意显然同当下的俄罗斯经济没什么关系。
由于受到西方国家的严厉制裁以及全球油价大跌双重因素的影响，俄罗斯卢布严重贬值，而俄罗斯经济也正濒临衰退的边缘。眼下俄罗斯主权信用评级距离垃圾级只差一个等级。
物价飞涨，花钱也买不到东西
俄罗斯政府此前表示俄罗斯经济通胀率在今年或达到17%，但记者在布拉戈维申斯克市采访时所遇到的民众纷纷表示物价早已处于飞涨状态。
75岁的瓦伦蒂娜-奇瑞洛夫向记者说到：“这里的商品价格的涨幅高得吓人。我现在带1000卢布（约合人民币95元）去商店里已经买不起任何东西。”瓦伦蒂娜-奇瑞洛夫的老伴向记者表示：“我们这里的一切价格都在涨。尽管我们带着很多钞票去商店，但由于物价太高，即便是花去了所有的钱，我们也买不到想买的东西。”
俄经济困难，边境桥梁建造计划搁浅
与布拉戈维申斯克市一河之隔的便是中国黑龙江省的黑河市，这座城市随着中俄边境贸易的发展而逐渐成长为一座极具活力的典型边境口岸城市。
原本中俄当地政府计划在黑河和布拉戈维申斯克市之间新建一座横跨阿穆尔河的桥梁连通两座城市，但由于俄方当地政府因为经济不景气而无力负担造桥开支使得工程迟迟无法开工。眼下两座城市的民众只能乘坐老式巴士通过早先设立的浮桥往来两地，而一到夏天两座城市的一切通行只能依靠船只摆渡。
被生活所迫，俄民众跨过边境来中国谋生
边境贸易给中国黑河市带来经济繁荣
路波芙-皮克洛娃五年前从俄罗斯搬到黑河生活，她现在在黑河一家宾馆工作，在她眼里自己未来在中国的生活会比在俄罗斯好得多，对此她向记者解释到：“如果是在俄罗斯生活，我们将面临一个又一个的危机，这样的日子还要过很久很久。在俄罗斯的生活需要支付许多大笔开支，正因如此有许多俄罗斯人想要努力离开俄罗斯。”
有人是为了降低生活成本来到中国，而另一些人则是处于治病医疗的目的从俄罗斯搬来中国。记者在黑河一家中国人开的牙医诊所里就发现了不少俄罗斯病人。其中一位名叫伊娜-谢尔吉延科（Inna Sergienko）的病人向记者表示：“这里的中国牙医诊所服务好、价格便宜，医生护士都非常出色。”
在俄做生意不易，政府对商人如对奴仆
俄罗斯商人德米特里-古佐夫斯基接受采访，讲述在俄做生意的艰难过程
回到布拉戈维申斯克市，记者遇到了俄罗斯商人德米特里-古佐夫斯基，他在布拉戈维申斯克市开了两家中国餐馆。布拉戈维申斯克市一语点破在俄罗斯经商的弊端——应付没完没了的政府官僚；认清形势，站对阵营，这样才能避免遭受五花八门的法律法规的为难。”
德米特里-古佐夫斯基还特别表示：“没人有会对着记者的镜头承认他们向政府官员行贿，但这种情况暗地里已经十分普遍。在俄罗斯经商的人已经懂得这样一个道理，没有人能够完完全全正大光明的做事，如果你一定要按照法律法规的要求去赚钱，那么最后的结局一定是卷铺盖回家。”德米特里-古佐夫斯基认为，俄罗斯经济最大的问题在于政府同商人之间没有形成对话机制，政府从来不同商人进行沟通，他们对待商人就像对待奴仆一样。
也许有一天油价回升会使得俄罗斯经济恢复增长的动力，到那时俄罗斯总统普京将会再次宣示俄罗斯在世界范围内的地位，但就目前而言这一切显得是那么的遥远和模糊。（编译/双刀）
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| 各國債務佔GDP之比 |
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正面超高浮雕製作Scottsdale Lion |
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| 背面(凹),刻有重量, 純度等 |
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| 三種重量直徑同為39mm |
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The U.S. Mint sold an average of 34.9 million Silver Eagles from 2008-2014 compared to 7.2 million from 1986-2007.
Investors purchased nearly 5 times more Silver Eagles a year after the Great U.S. Economic Collapse in 2008, than they did from 1986-2007.
In contrast, the U.S. Mint only sold an average of 50% more Gold Eagles from 2008-2014 compared to the yearly average from 1986-2007.
Essentially, the sales increase in Silver Eagles outperformed Gold Eagle sales by 10 to 1 since 2008!
From the SRSRocco Report:
There are two charts every precious metals investor needs to see. The U.S. Mint is celebrating its 30 year anniversary producing Gold and Silver Eagles and if we look at the sales data of these two Official precious metal legal tender coins going back to 1986, we find some very interesting trends.
The U.S. Mint started selling Gold and Silver Eagles in 1986. The first year the U.S. Mint produced these coins, 1,787,750 oz of Gold Eagles were sold compared to 5,096,000 Silver Eagles… a 3 to 1 ratio. That was the first and last year, the Silver-Gold Eagle ratio was that low.
Let’s first look at the Gold Eagle sales chart:
I decided to break down the chart into two separate time frames. We have the total sales from 1986-2007 (before the collapse of the U.S. Investment Banking and Housing Industry), and then after from 2008-2014. As we can see, total sales from 1986-2007 were 13,997,000 oz of Gold Eagles compared to 6,655,000 oz during the 2008-2014 time period.
If we divide the total of Gold Eagle sales from these two time periods by the number of years, we have the following:
Gold Eagle Annual Sales Average
(1986-2008): 13,997,000 / 22 years = 636,227 oz avg. per year
(2008-2014): 6,655,000/ 7 years = 950,714 oz avg per year
So, after the U.S. economy and financial system teetered on the brink of collapse, the U.S. Mint sold an average of 950,714 oz of Gold Eagles annually compared to the 636.227 oz per year prior to 2008.
Furthermore, the total Gold Eagles sold from 1986 to 2014 was 20,652,000 oz. This is a great deal of gold investment at a little more than 652 metric tons (mt). Now, let’s compare the this to the Silver Eagle sales market.
A quick glance at the Silver Eagle chart and we can see a much different picture compared to the historic Gold Eagle chart. From 1986 to 2007, the U.S. Mint sold 158,262,000 Silver Eagles. However, from 2008-2014, the sales of Silver Eagles were 54% higher at 244,304,500.
If we break down the Silver Eagle sales in these two time periods, we have the following:
Silver Eagle Annual Sales Average
(1986-2008): 158,264,000 / 22 years = 7,193,818 avg. per year
(2008-2014): 244,304,500/ 7 years = 34,900,643 avg per year
What a huge difference in sales trends between these two precious metal legal tender coins. The U.S. Mint sold an average of 34.9 million Silver Eagles from 2008-2014 compared to 7.2 million from 1986-2007.
Investors purchased nearly 5 times more Silver Eagles a year after the Great U.S. Economic Collapse in 2008, than they did from 1986-2007. In contrast, the U.S. Mint only sold an average of 50% more Gold Eagles from 2008-2014 compared to the yearly average from 1986-2007. Basically, Silver Eagles outperformed Gold Eagle sales by 10 to 1 since 2008.
It’s plain to see the difference between these two charts… total Silver Eagle sales were much higher in the last seven years, while the total volume of Gold Eagle sales were greater in the 1986-2007 time period.
In addition, the U.S. Mint sold a staggering 402.5 million Silver Eagles (12,520 mt) from 1986 to 2014 compared to the 20.6 million oz of Gold Eagles (652 mt). If we assume the following market prices for the total Gold & Silver Eagle sales, this would be the result:
GOLD & SILVER EAGLE Estimated Total Asset Value
Gold Eagles: 20,652,000 X $1,320 = $27.2 Billion
Silver Eagles: 402,568,500 X $20 = $8.0 Billion
Even though investors purchased 20 times more Silver Eagles than Gold Eagles since the U.S. Mint started producing these coins, the total estimated Silver Eagle asset value is $8 billion compared to the $27.2 billion in Gold Eagles.
Also, think about those figures for a minute. The total U.S. Gold & Silver Eagle Asset Value is approximately $35 billion. Can you imagine what would happen if just a fraction of the $100 Trillion Global Conventional Assets under management tried to move into this market??
NOTE: to arrive at the average price per coin value, I took the present market price of gold and silver and then added a premium.
Investors who purchased Gold and Silver Eagles will do wonderfully in the future when the U.S. Dollar finally disintegrates into a typical Banana Republic Fiat Currency. However, the value of Silver Eagles will out perform Gold Eagles in a big way as the masses try to acquire the more affordable Official Coin.
Lastly, I did receive a reply from APMEX on the issue of Silver Eagle sales since 2011. As many of you remember, Ted Butler has stated several times that JP Morgan is the big buyer of Silver Eagles since April 2011. Butler believes JP Morgan purchase half of all the Silver Eagles produced since April 2011.
I have written in response to that providing evidence from some of the Top Online Precious Metal Dealers that their Silver Eagle sales have continued to grow since 2011. The Chief Operating Officer from APMEX, Kenneth Lewis was kind enough to share some sales info that is not something they typically do.
Unfortunately, I have not yet received permission to reproduce his email, but I can tell you this… Mr Lewis confirms that Gold sales were lower over the past several years, but Silver Eagle sales growth continues to improve paralleling the figures put out by the U.S. Mint.
