People are going to have to pay attention to that. And either the Chinese are dopes, which they’re not, or people will start to get gold, which they will.
But if there’s a run on paper currencies (which is entirely possible) and there’s borderline hyperinflation (which is entirely possible), they may have to go to a gold standard… Not because they want to, but because they find it necessary to calm the markets.
By James Rickards, The Daily Reckoning Jul 12, 2013, 9:22 AM
There isn’t a central bank in the world that wants to go back to a gold standard. But that’s not the point. The point is whether they will have to.
I’ve had conversations with several of the Federal Reserve Bank presidents. When you ask them point-blank, “Is there a theoretical limit to the Fed’s balance sheet?” they say no. They say there are policy reasons to make it higher or lower, but that there’s no limit to the amount of money you can print.
That is completely wrong. That’s what they say; that’s how they think; and that’s how they act. But in their heart of hearts, some people at the Fed know it’s wrong. Luckily, people can vote with their feet.
I always tell people who say we’re not on the gold standard that, in a way, we are. You can put yourself on a personal gold standard just by buying gold. In other words, if you think that the value of paper money will be in some jeopardy, or confidence in paper money may be lost, one way to protect yourself is by buying gold, and there’s nothing stopping you.
The typical rejoinder is, “What’s the point of owning gold? They’re just going to confiscate it, like Roosevelt did in 1933?”
I find that extremely unlikely.
In 1933, we’d just come through four years of the Great Depression, and Roosevelt was new in office. People talk about the first hundred days, but he closed the banks right after he was sworn in. And he confiscated gold only a few weeks later.
And it wasn’t as if Elliot Ness was going door to door, breaking into your house and taking gold. They wanted to get a small number of people who had 400-ounce bars in bank vaults. And they got those people because they were able to close the banks and use them as intermediaries to confiscate that gold. But now, it’s far more dispersed, and there’s far less trust in government.
If the government tried to confiscate gold today, there would be various forms of resistance. The government knows this. So they wouldn’t issue that order, because they know it couldn’t be enforced, and it might cause various kinds of civil disobedience or pushback, etc.
As long as you can own gold, you can put yourself on your own gold standard by converting paper money to gold. I recommend you do that to some extent. Not all in, but I recommend having 10% of your investable assets in gold for the conservative investor, and maybe 20% for the aggressive investor — no more than that.
Those are pretty high allocations relative to what people have. Most people own no gold, and all the institutions combined have an allocation to gold of about 1.5%. So even if you take the low end of this range, you’re still nowhere near 10%. In fact, institutions could not double their gold allocation even to 3%. There’s not enough gold in the world — at current prices — to satisfy that demand. So it’s got this huge upside associated with it.
Still, central banks don’t want to go to a gold standard. But if gold is a barbarous relic, if gold has no role in the monetary system, if gold is a “stupid” investment, then why do the Chinese have 5,000 tonnes? Are they stupid?
If some scenarios play out, you are going to see the price of gold go up… a lot. And it may go up a lot in a very short period of time. It’s not going to go up 10% per year for seven years and the price doubles. It’s going to chug along sideways, maybe in an upward trend, with a lot of volatility. It will have a kind of a slow grind upward… and then a spike… and then another spike… and then asuper-spike. The whole thing could happen in a matter of 90 days — six months at the most.
When that happens, you’re going to have two Americas. You’re going to have an America that was not prepared. Paper savings will be wiped out; 401(k)s will be devalued; pensions, insurance and annuities will be devalued through inflation… Because remember, it’s not just the price of gold going up.
It’s like putting a thermometer in a patient, getting a 104-degree temperature and blaming the thermometer. The thermometer’s not to blame; it’s just telling you what’s going on. Likewise, the price of gold is not an economic object or aim in itself; it’s a price signal. It tells you what’s going on in the economy. And gold at the levels I’m talking about would mean that you’ve now verged into hyperinflation, or something close to it, because nothing happens in isolation.
At that point, you have to give more credence to gold. Now you’ve crossed the threshold. The minute you think of gold and paper money side by side, or having some relationship, you get to these price levels of $7,000-8,000 an ounce. They’re not made up. They’re not there to be provocative. They’re actually the math. Those are the numbers you get when you simply divide the money supply by the amount of gold in the market.
People are going to have to pay attention to that. And either the Chinese are dopes — which they’re not — or people will start to get gold, which they will.
But if there’s a run on paper currencies (which is entirely possible) and there’s borderline hyperinflation (which is entirely possible), they may have to go to a gold standard… Not because theywant to, but because they find it necessary to calm the markets.
I suggest you buy your gold at current levels — $1,200, $1,250 — and ride the wave up to these much higher levels ($4,000-5,000 an ounce) and then assess the situation. Be nimble. You can’t just write a game plan today and follow it step by step. That’s nonsense. You have to be nimble; you have to be following developments; you have to be prepared to change your mind based on new news.
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| 麥嘉華強調買實體黃金才是對的。 |
據數據顯示，2013年2季度印度的實物黃金需求超過中國。印度對黃金的需求不僅因為即將到來的婚禮季，還有投資需求。
與此同時，印度盧比則在崩潰。對貨幣缺乏信心的情況下，印度投資者對黃金的需求更大。
在5月31日到8月20日間，盧比兌美元下跌20%，這一變化可能對西方市場影響不大，卻絕對影響了印度富豪們。印度首富穆克什‧安巴尼(MukeshAmbani)的資產自5月1日以來已經蒸發了56億美元。
印度人已經習慣了他們的貨幣盧比的變動，在過去40年中，盧比兌美元大體是一直在貶值的。
自今年4月，以盧比計價的黃金上漲20%，盧比兌美元則下跌了差不多相等的量。
黃金走私日益猖獗
印度政府擔心國民將他們的盧比都換成黃金，造成盧比進一步貶值。因此他們採取了一系列措施來控制，包括限制進口金幣和勳章、提高黃金進口關稅、要求珠寶商停止出售金條金幣等。
印度政府這些措施可能看起來來地劇烈，但印度民眾實則加緊增加黃金購買。4月到6月間印度海關截獲走私黃金增加了365%。印度稅務部門稱，今年走私的黃金可能超過去年150%。
據印度稅務部門官員稱，印度被抓獲的黃金走私者在今年2季度較去年同期增加32%。同期被截獲的黃金價值2億7千萬盧比，是2012年同期價值2500萬盧比的10倍。
印度反走私部門官員稱，今年2季度黃金走私案數量從去年同期的21起上升到205起。
印度稅務部門稱，這些數字只是被走私到印度黃金的一小部分，一位印度稅收情報部門官員說，我們可能只能查到被走私進印度黃金的5%到10%。
自古以來，亞洲消費者對黃金情有獨鍾，限制購買可能只會讓他們的需求更迫切。
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| 美國金礦公司和安第斯礦業公司首席執行官兼董事長羅布•麥克尤恩 |
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| 中國證券報 第A03版 |
石林
美國商務部上周五公布，上月新屋銷售按月下跌13.4%，是三年多來最大的跌幅，反映此情況的住宅建造商（Homebuilders）ETF聞聲跌破50周移動平均線。
此消息在金融市場掀起漣漪，認為聯邦儲備局將會延後採取退市措施。
掰花瓣占卜遊戲
金市趁機進一步冒升到1400元（美元．下同）關口的下沿，並以1397.8元收市，是5月以來的最高每周收市價，全周升幅為1.65%。銀市表現更加矚目，最高升抵24.11元，且以24.08元偏高價收市，是4月底以來的最高每周收市價，全周升幅達3.54%。
事實上，「她愛我，她不愛我」的掰花瓣占卜遊戲沒有停止過，市場一直試圖找尋蜘絲馬迹去估量聯儲局是否及何時進行逐漸收窄購債規模，即所謂Tapering。可惜上周公開市場委員（FOMC）會議記錄公開後，只是帶來更不確切的訊息；而周五關於新屋銷售大跌的消息則有點意外。於是有人高呼：Tapering已死！QE萬歲！
貨幣乘數持續趨下
大多數人熱衷於憑一些訊息去推估聯儲局的貨幣政策動向，但很少人會看該局的實際操作數據，從中找出它的趨向，敝欄是屬後者之列。
截至上周三，聯儲局資產負債表規模為3.645萬億元，維持在歷來高峰水平；而持有國庫券和MBS的價值，分別為2.012萬億元和1.303萬億元，均續創新高。與此同時，貨幣基礎增升到3.427萬億元的歷來新高。
試看過去三個月的表現，此期間聯邦儲備資產平均每月膨脹823億元，而貨幣基礎平均每月增加962億元。再結合該局持有國庫券和MBS的價值持續創新高的情況，可以看到QE是一直在進行着，並無轉入Tapering的迹象，或至少可說未有為轉入Tapering做一些過渡的工作。由此看來，只憑一些訊息去推估貨幣政策動向的人，或因某數據欠佳而高呼QE萬歲的人，都似乎有點大驚小怪。
就金銀兩市而言，QE仍將繼續是否就是大好消息呢？應該說不是，過去兩年的實際行情已經告訴我們不是了，但至少不是一個更壞的消息。為什麼這不是大好消息呢？我們在看着QE是否繼續進行的同時，要同時注視貨幣流動性的趨向。敝欄遺憾地告訴各位，美國M1貨幣乘數仍然持續趨下，到本月7日數值僅為0.758。
但無論如何，上周五金價彈升，是反映市勢趁機對過去一段時間超賣狀態作出某程度的修正；同時，反映出當紙黃金市場的沽壓減少時，實際市場需求的支持效應便會顯現。
到上周末，〈GLD〉持金量回增到920.13噸，比早前低谷時的909.33噸，總算有一定改善。此外，至上周大投機者、特別是對沖基金在期金市場，所持的淨多頭倉持續回揚。這都說明紙黃金市場的沽壓早在逐漸減小，而在上周五更出現沽家突告消失的場面。
就金市而言，最近在1348元水平上建立起新支持，並使過去一個月低價區確認是階段性底部。目前金價已輕微升越1395元的短期阻力，只要日內仍維持在1377元之上，後市將有能力上試1419元至1424元地帶，甚或挑戰1446元附近水平，惟1477元至1488元仍是重大阻力區。
完全看好恐未恰當
銀市的升跌幅通常比金市大，在被過度拋售後反彈比率更大不算奇怪。到上周二，大投機者早着先機已明顯增持淨多倉，而小投機者卻減倉。銀市已在20.6元水平建立起新支持，短期支持更上移至22.5元附近，日內目標指向24.5元至24.8元地帶，只是短期略呈超買，市勢或會反覆。然而，26元附近是銀市中期強大阻力之所在，諒不易升越。簡言之，目前是金銀兩市強力中短期反彈的繼續，完全改為看好恐未恰當。
